1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[winterfreak]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Latest thinking from EAX.

Can’t wait…

[Niko]

33 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

 

 

Have a feeling this one will be a surprise somehow. It’s got potential!  GOLU model will confirm. 

I think so too. I am thinking somewhere in the 6-9 inch range throughout the entire area is a good bet.

[Niko]

28 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

The TXT

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
256 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

MIZ076-082-083-250500-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.230125T1000Z-230126T0100Z/
Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
256 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 8 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow will develop around 6 am,
  however, amounts and impacts during the morning commute are
  expected to remain relatively minor. Snow will then steadily
  increase in intensity with the peak of the heaviest snowfall
  rates between 10 am and 4 pm Wednesday. Travel conditions will
  deteriorate considerably during the afternoon into the early
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Here we go. Time to Rock N Roll...!!!!

[Niko]

Snow and Ice Outlook

 

 

4 - 8 in

Snow

Upcoming

Start

7:00 AM

Wednesday, 1/25

End

11:00 PM

Wednesday, 1/25

 

Snowfall Amount Probability

Greater than a foot 1%

 

8 - 12 in 9%

 

4 - 8 in 68%

 

2 - 4 in 19%

 

Less than 2 in 3%

 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

(SIGH)..we finally get a sunny day (along with an extra 8 or more degs warming) the day leading into a storm when we don't need it.

Well, thx to lower DP's we still had patchy coverage of the snow that fell Sunday. Any shaded area maintain 90% full sun more like 5%. Still, a win in my book considering what it's been like around here since coming over.  Peeps with north facing homesteads will certainly be stacking snow-on-snow

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, Niko said:

Snow and Ice Outlook

 

 

4 - 8 in

Snow

Upcoming

Start

7:00 AM

Wednesday, 1/25

End

11:00 PM

Wednesday, 1/25

 

Snowfall Amount Probability

Greater than a foot 1%

 

8 - 12 in 9%

 

4 - 8 in 68%

 

2 - 4 in 19%

 

Less than 2 in 3%

 

You could get a classic "last minute upgrade" this region is famous for.

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You could get a classic "last minute upgrade" this region is famous for.

Latest storm graphic certainly is leaning that way with the "yellows" shooting up into Macomb!

 

[WinterSquall23]

53 minutes ago, Niko said:

Snow and Ice Outlook

 

 

4 - 8 in

Snow

Upcoming

Start

7:00 AM

Wednesday, 1/25

End

11:00 PM

Wednesday, 1/25

 

Snowfall Amount Probability

Greater than a foot 1%

 

8 - 12 in 9%

 

4 - 8 in 68%

 

2 - 4 in 19%

 

Less than 2 in 3%

 

@Niko I like those odds.  

[Iceresistance]

Saw a WPC report of 5 inches of snow less than a 1/2 mile to my south that was reported at 4 PM. So I got more than 5 inches of snow!

[WinterSquall23]

26 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Well, thx to lower DP's we still had patchy coverage of the snow that fell Sunday. Any shaded area maintain 90% full sun more like 5%. Still, a win in my book considering what it's been like around here since coming over.  Peeps with north facing homesteads will certainly be stacking snow-on-snow

Our house faces North.  So our front yard can be totally covered while the back yard gets nuked. All winter in the front and spring in the back. 

[Hawkeye]

Tulsa, OK is still reporting rain and upper 30s.  The NWS has lowered them to 1-2".  What a waste of a good storm.

[Niko]

50 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You could get a classic "last minute upgrade" this region is famous for.

Perhaps. I am thinking w/ the 4am cycle, there is a chance that they might upgrade it to a WSW. Mind you, my area is expected to receive at least 6"+. So, not sure how NOAA see's that as a WWA.

[Niko]

23 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Our house faces North.  So our front yard can be totally covered while the back yard gets nuked. All winter in the front and spring in the back. 

How much are you expecting in ur neck of the woods?

[Niko]

51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Latest storm graphic certainly is leaning that way with the "yellows" shooting up into Macomb!

 

This clearly has my area in the 6-8" range!

[jaster220]

33 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

@Niko I like those odds.  

Still have a 1% of a FOOTER!! Not off the table completely. Would that be crazy!

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Tulsa, OK is still reporting rain and upper 30s.  The NWS has lowered them to 1-2".  What a waste of a good storm.

They had the same crappy warm pre-storm conditions we had last Feb here when half our storm went down the street drains. Took forever to flip-over in the metro

[jaster220]

Yet another "monster" Octopus storm!

 

[jaster220]

18z HRRR really takes the SLP closer, but stronger. If this was wrapping arctic air off a Canadian HP, betta believe bliz conditions would've been on the table

 

[Niko]

44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Still have a 1% of a FOOTER!! Not off the table completely. Would that be crazy!

 

38 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

18z HRRR really takes the SLP closer, but stronger. If this was wrapping arctic air off a Canadian HP, betta believe bliz conditions would've been on the table

 

There will be windy conditions tomorrow. Winds gusting to as high as 30mph, if not higher, but yes, that would have been awesome. At least will will have blowing and drifting of the snow.

[Niko]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Still have a 1% of a FOOTER!! Not off the table completely. Would that be crazy!

Anything is possible!!!

[WinterSquall23]

21 minutes ago, Niko said:

How much are you expecting in ur neck of the woods?

At this point 4 inches hopefully.  We are pretty much close to battleground of heavy snow.  I mean if this storm sneezed we would be in the heavy stuff.  Weird weather here as we have some elevation.  Our area can pull a Hail Mary in the snow dept.  Seen it happen  here many times.  We will see..  You look to be in a good spot. 

[Clinton]

Getting some light rain mixed with some wet snow flakes, the temp is down to 35 from a high of 42.

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, Niko said:

 

There will be windy conditions tomorrow. Winds gusting to as high as 30mpoh, if not higher, but yes, taht would have been awesome. At least will will have blowing and drifting of the snow.

I really like windy storms (not dry bitter cold WC's) and looking at DTW's hourly the steady 15-20 mph winds and WC's running in the low 20's will make this storm seem so much more wintry than either of last winter's half slush mess storms.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

At this point 4 inches hopefully.  We are pretty much close to battleground of heavy snow.  I mean if this storm sneezed we would be in the heavy stuff.  Weird weather here as we have some elevation.  Our area can pull a Hail Mary in the snow dept.  Seen it happen  here many times.  We will see..  You look to be in a good spot. 

How long have you lived there in Milford?

[Niko]

13 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

At this point 4 inches hopefully.  We are pretty much close to battleground of heavy snow.  I mean if this storm sneezed we would be in the heavy stuff.  Weird weather here as we have some elevation.  Our area can pull a Hail Mary in the snow dept.  Seen it happen  here many times.  We will see..  You look to be in a good spot. 

As @Clintonand @jaster220mentioned earlier, do not be surprised to see some surprises w/ this storm. Stay tuned!

[jaster220]

18Z NAM & RGEM @h29 for comparison with that HRRR

[Niko]

This storm has my area snowing until 1AM Thursday. Long duration.

[jaster220]

After 8 hrs above freezing under full sunshine, I'm glad to see us comfortably below again.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

This storm has my area snowing until 1AM Thursday. Long duration.

Certainly not short duration. I'd call anything 18+ hrs "long duration" for this region. The CAT-5 monsters were on the order of 30 hrs. I'd rather get 12" in 12 hrs like the UP ofc, but we ain't them, lol. 11/29/11 in Marshall was a "thump" storm with 8.5" in 4 hrs. Massive flakes and one of the few times I've been on the recieving end of truly "puking snow"

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Certainly not short duration. I'd call anything 18+ hrs "long duration" for this region. The CAT-5 monsters were on the order of 30 hrs. I'd rather get 12" in 12 hrs like the UP ofc, but we ain't them, lol. 11/29/11 in Marshall was a "thump" storm with 8.5" in 4 hrs. Massive flakes and one of the few times I've been on the recieving end of truly "puking snow"

I'd tell ya..I have a good feeling that we could be in for a big surprise w/ these storm totals...could be veryyyy impressive. I just finished telling that to @Ferndale_man, who could very easily receive more than what they are forecasting for his area, so heads up ya'll.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Niko said:

This storm has my area snowing until 1AM Thursday. Long duration.

What? now we have a legit storm and no Accu-graphics from your side??

[Niko]

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

After 8 hrs above freezing under full sunshine, I'm glad to see us comfortably below again.

What the heck was the sun thinking of today??!! I was so pissed seeing it melting my beautiful snowcover and on top of that, right on the heels of a major snowstorm.

[jaster220]

Just now, Niko said:

What the heck was the sun thinking of today??!! I was so pissed seeing it melting my beautiful snowcover and on top of that, right on the heels of a major snowstorm.

Ikr. Everything was solidly frozen even the larger puddles this morning. 

[Jayhawker85]

It’s amazing to me that we are in the heart of winter with a major storm and it’s struggling to produce below freezing temps! Even under the low in Oklahoma it’s still above freezing with snow 

[Niko]

Just now, jaster220 said:

Ikr. Everything was solidly frozen even the larger puddles this morning. 

It was cloudy all these days, weeks and etc, and chose to break out today, out of all days. Crazy! As if it did it on purpose!

[jaster220]

May not deliver on it's promises everywhere, but it certainly got the headlines map fired-up

 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

It’s amazing to me that we are in the heart of winter with a major storm and it’s struggling to produce below freezing temps! Even under the low in Oklahoma it’s still above freezing with snow 

Down south at least, it's like an early-season storm up here. Everything's a month and a half behind. 

[jaster220]

Giddy-up! for #winter!

GRR:

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

-- Accumulating snow expected Wednesday over Southwest Lower MI --

The main focus of the 7 day forecast is on the event which will
begin prior to daybreak along I-94. Snow will likely start in the
overnight hours towards 500am at places like Kalamazoo and
Jackson. The snow will spread north and move into the I-96
corridor between 700am and 900am, making it to the U.S. 10
corridor towards 1100am. We are sticking with the configuration
that we sent out earlier with most of the southern 3 rows of
counties southward in a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes all
of the I-94 row of counties in our area and the I-96 counties from
Kent to the east. The heaviest snow in our area will likely fall
across Jackson County where 6 inch amounts will be possible. 2-4
inch amounts will be common near I-96 and 3-6 along I-94.

The low is forecast to track from Western TN/KY Wednesday morning
to just east of Cleveland by evening. The heaviest snow with this
system will fall south of our area and near the 850mb low track
across portions of Northern IN, Northwest OH and Southeast Lower
MI. The strongest isentropic lift in our area and likely the
heaviest snow will occur from the morning hours into the early
afternoon. In the far southeast the heaviest snow will likely be
towards 100pm where BUFKIT overviews show deep lift through the
DGZ. Snowfall rates will likely approach an inch an hour during
this time frame towards Jackson. The biggest impact from this
system will be travel related. We expected both the morning and
evening commutes towards I-94 to be impacted with the evening
commute more impact up towards I-96. After several weeks of very
little snow it will be a sharp return to winter driving on
Wednesday.

-- Another quick burst of snow on Friday --

Another quick shot of snow will occur on Friday as a cold front
sweeps through the area. The front will be driven by a broad mid
level shortwave moving southeast across the Great Lakes region.
850mb temperatures will be marginal, but it appears this will be a
lake enhanced type of an event. A quick 1-3 inches will be
possible especially for areas near and to the northwest of Grand
Rapids.

-- Active pattern continues with additional snow possible Sat --

An inverted trough moving through the area will bring another
chance for snow Saturday into Saturday night. Both the ECMWF and
GFS operational runs are indicating 4+ inches of 10:1 snow so we
could be looking at additional headlines during this time frame.
The models have become more in line with one another that the
heaviest snow could be along I-94.

[Niko]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Giddy-up! for #winter!

GRR:

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

-- Accumulating snow expected Wednesday over Southwest Lower MI --

The main focus of the 7 day forecast is on the event which will
begin prior to daybreak along I-94. Snow will likely start in the
overnight hours towards 500am at places like Kalamazoo and
Jackson. The snow will spread north and move into the I-96
corridor between 700am and 900am, making it to the U.S. 10
corridor towards 1100am. We are sticking with the configuration
that we sent out earlier with most of the southern 3 rows of
counties southward in a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes all
of the I-94 row of counties in our area and the I-96 counties from
Kent to the east. The heaviest snow in our area will likely fall
across Jackson County where 6 inch amounts will be possible. 2-4
inch amounts will be common near I-96 and 3-6 along I-94.

The low is forecast to track from Western TN/KY Wednesday morning
to just east of Cleveland by evening. The heaviest snow with this
system will fall south of our area and near the 850mb low track
across portions of Northern IN, Northwest OH and Southeast Lower
MI. The strongest isentropic lift in our area and likely the
heaviest snow will occur from the morning hours into the early
afternoon. In the far southeast the heaviest snow will likely be
towards 100pm where BUFKIT overviews show deep lift through the
DGZ. Snowfall rates will likely approach an inch an hour during
this time frame towards Jackson. The biggest impact from this
system will be travel related. We expected both the morning and
evening commutes towards I-94 to be impacted with the evening
commute more impact up towards I-96. After several weeks of very
little snow it will be a sharp return to winter driving on
Wednesday.

-- Another quick burst of snow on Friday --

Another quick shot of snow will occur on Friday as a cold front
sweeps through the area. The front will be driven by a broad mid
level shortwave moving southeast across the Great Lakes region.
850mb temperatures will be marginal, but it appears this will be a
lake enhanced type of an event. A quick 1-3 inches will be
possible especially for areas near and to the northwest of Grand
Rapids.

-- Active pattern continues with additional snow possible Sat --

An inverted trough moving through the area will bring another
chance for snow Saturday into Saturday night. Both the ECMWF and
GFS operational runs are indicating 4+ inches of 10:1 snow so we
could be looking at additional headlines during this time frame.
The models have become more in line with one another that the
heaviest snow could be along I-94.

@Tomwas mentioning earlier in the month that end of January would be much more active in terms of snowfall and turning substantially colder, especially, heading into February. Very impressive analysis. @Clintonas well for great LR forecasting. That LRC tool sure does work!!

[Jayhawker85]

Just switched over to light snow here but the temps are 34-35 so nothing is sticking:(

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Just switched over to light snow here but the temps are 34-35 so nothing is sticking:(

Good luck buddy hope we can get the ground white.

[JSMY]

I rarely post as I’m just a novice winter weather watcher. I’ve learned so much through this forum the last few years I’ve been a member. I tell my husband and son what @Tom is seeing. @jaster220 @Niko Ive read your posts for years. I’m just down to your South in Brownstown. (Monroe county line) Thank you all for sharing your insights and excitement. I’ve got big hopes down here for this one! 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, JSMY said:

I rarely post as I’m just a novice winter weather watcher. I’ve learned so much through this forum the last few years I’ve been a member. I tell my husband and son what @Tom is seeing. @jaster220 @Niko Ive read your posts for years. I’m just down to your South in Brownstown. (Monroe county line) Thank you all for sharing your insights and excitement. I’ve got big hopes down here for this one! 

Hello and welcome as a poster fellow Mitt Peep! I hope you do well along with everyone else in this game. I was you. I mean a decade and more ago I too was only a wx enthusiast and lurked w/o posting. Took a couple of years to get up to speed with all the online data that has become available in our www era. Hope to see you here more often.

[winterfreak]

Cold rain and 37.

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Cold rain and 37.

Was it expected to begin as RN?

[jaster220]

We could drop about 30 mb by this time tomorrow

[jaster220]

0z HRRR continued it's theme w about 6 hrs of legit pound-town

 

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Cold rain and 37.

I meant, does your local forecast call for a RN->SN event. HRRR doesn't look solid snow across MO until between 1 and 2 am

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I meant, does your local forecast call for a RN->SN event. HRRR doesn't look solid snow across MO until between 1 and 2 am

My forecast says it should become all snow around 11.

[jaster220]

Just now, Clinton said:

My forecast says it should become all snow around 11.

Yeah, you're on the western end of the state makes sense. Hoping for a nice blanket of white gold for ya bud!

DTX storm update:

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
947 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

.UPDATE...

Evening observations are being monitored upstream for checks of
onset timing on the SE MI snow event set to begin toward sunrise and
then ramp up during the morning. The leading edge of precipitation
associated  with the textbook Gulf coast system is entering far
southern IL/western KY at mid evening. This is about on schedule
based on model comparisons which then project at least light snow
ongoing by the 5AM to 7 AM Warning/Advisory start times from the
Ohio border up to the northern Detroit suburbs. This initial phase
of the event puts down just enough accumulation for hazardous travel
during the morning travel peak in the Detroit metro area. Some
wavering of coverage and intensity is then expected around mid
morning as the leading isentropic ascent and moisture transport
plays out against resident dry air over the south half of Lower Mi
as indicated in the latest 00Z DTX sounding.

A transition to a more dynamically forced phase of the event begins
by late morning with a notable afternoon peak of coverage and
intensity. The afternoon phase is driven by an excellent combination
of coupled jet, short wave DCVA, and occlusion forcing that occurs
along and north of a classic NW Ohio surface low track. A band of
heavy snow is then expected around mid afternoon roughly centered on
a line from Adrian to metro Detroit to Port Huron matching up with
maximum elevated instability along the south flank of the TROWAL
axis. Snow rate of 1 inch per hour is likely during this time with
significant impacts to the evening peak travel period. Event total
accumulation of 3 to 6 inches Advisory and 6 to 8 inches Warning are
on target by the time snow diminishes Wednesday evening.

&&