1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[winterfreak]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I meant, does your local forecast call for a RN->SN event. HRRR doesn't look solid snow across MO until between 1 and 2 am

I know. Just thought I’d chime in with my current observations…

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, you're on the western end of the state makes sense. Hoping for a nice blanket of white gold for ya bud!

DTX storm update:

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
947 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

.UPDATE...

Evening observations are being monitored upstream for checks of
onset timing on the SE MI snow event set to begin toward sunrise and
then ramp up during the morning. The leading edge of precipitation
associated  with the textbook Gulf coast system is entering far
southern IL/western KY at mid evening. This is about on schedule
based on model comparisons which then project at least light snow
ongoing by the 5AM to 7 AM Warning/Advisory start times from the
Ohio border up to the northern Detroit suburbs. This initial phase
of the event puts down just enough accumulation for hazardous travel
during the morning travel peak in the Detroit metro area. Some
wavering of coverage and intensity is then expected around mid
morning as the leading isentropic ascent and moisture transport
plays out against resident dry air over the south half of Lower Mi
as indicated in the latest 00Z DTX sounding.

A transition to a more dynamically forced phase of the event begins
by late morning with a notable afternoon peak of coverage and
intensity. The afternoon phase is driven by an excellent combination
of coupled jet, short wave DCVA, and occlusion forcing that occurs
along and north of a classic NW Ohio surface low track. A band of
heavy snow is then expected around mid afternoon roughly centered on
a line from Adrian to metro Detroit to Port Huron matching up with
maximum elevated instability along the south flank of the TROWAL
axis. Snow rate of 1 inch per hour is likely during this time with
significant impacts to the evening peak travel period. Event total
accumulation of 3 to 6 inches Advisory and 6 to 8 inches Warning are
on target by the time snow diminishes Wednesday evening.

&&

I'm excited to see how much you get.  Did you sneak into Minneapolis and steal the magnet from James?  All these storms coming up all end up in your back yard. 

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm excited to see how much you get.  Did you sneak into Minneapolis and steal the magnet from James?  All these storms coming up all end up in your back yard. 

Hehehe - shhh!

[Clinton]

Just transitioned over to all big slushy snow flakes with a temp of 34.  Guess I'll see how much if anything I end of with.

[jaster220]

Why I encouraged my sister NOT to fly out of DTW tomorrow (she changed to Thurs). This is impressive by SEMI standards. Flash-backs of Bliz of '99 nightmare for Northwest airlines flight stuck for hours and hours full of people.

Issued at 657 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

AVIATION...

Early evening satellite imagery indicates a wedge of mostly clear
sky over much of SE MI surrounded by MVFR clouds which are expected
to fill in from the south and west during the night. MVFR then holds
until snow spreads in from IN/OH toward sunrise when a quick
progression down into IFR takes place. Some variation of intensity
is expected during the morning while the leading edge moves south to
north across the region. The peak snow intensity remains on track
for the afternoon with LIFR/VLIFR in 1/2SM snow on average, and dips
to 1/4SM in heavy snow also possible, for several hours as the low
pressure system strengthens while moving through the Ohio valley.
The low center moves over NW OH, Lake Erie, and southern Ontario by
Wednesday evening resulting in a uniform east wind increasing and
backing NW along the terminal corridor. Gusts near 25 knots add some
blowing snow to the pattern as system snow diminishes mid Wednesday
evening.

For DTW... An area of MVFR clouds near the OH border move toward DTW
mid to late evening and then hold with broken coverage until snow
arrives toward sunrise. A 5 AM start time remains on track followed
by a quick transition into IFR early in the morning. Some variation
of intensity is possible during the mid to late morning before the
peak snow rate occurs in the afternoon. Rate near 1 inch per hour in
LIFR/VLIFR of 1/2SM to 1/4SM is likely for several hours before snow
diminishes toward Wednesday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Wednesday.

* High for snow late tonight through Wednesday.

* Moderate to high for visibility of 1/2SM or less Wednesday
  afternoon.

[Clinton]

Looks like a band may be setting up nearby.

[jaster220]

^^^ Every time I see "Clinton" on your map I think that's where you are, lol

[Niko]

26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm excited to see how much you get.  Did you sneak into Minneapolis and steal the magnet from James?  All these storms coming up all end up in your back yard. 

Dont forget mby too amigo!!!!

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

^^^ Every time I see "Clinton" on your map I think that's where you are, lol

I'm not far about 20 miles north lol

[Niko]

I just saw my radar and man, that moisture to my SW is just waiting to explode here in S MI. Look out.

@jaster220 take a look at ya radar.....veryyy impressive to what is coming.

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, Niko said:

I just saw my radar and man, that moisture to my SW is just waiting to explode here in S MI. Look out.

@jaster220 take a look at ya radar.....veryyy impressive to what is coming.

Funny, but I really do not like watching radar. Might be due to living 2 decades in Marshall where GRR's radar was weak. Or it's just not my thing, Idk

Before they update overnight, going to put this here because it's the rare great reading material from my new office:

DTX pm afd

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

DISCUSSION...

The main focus early in the forecast period remains a large winter
storm which will eject from Texas this afternoon northeast into the
Ohio Valley and southern Great lakes from Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This system is expected to bring widespread accumulating snow
to the area on Wednesday with heavy snow expected at times during
the daylight hours on Wednesday.

The large scale features associated with this storm system have been
discussed in detail over the past few days and have only varied to
relatively small degrees between models/model cycles. Coupled upper
jet structure will evolve quickly this evening as an anticyclonic
lead jet strengthens and lifts through the Great Lakes into Ontario
and Quebec tonight into Wednesday and the larger cyclonic jet pivot
around the base of the storm system and arcs into the region. This
process has been rather consistently forecast and is again today so
the positioning of the developing cyclone within the couplet should
only waver to a small degree as it tracks from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Ohio Valley and then eastern Great Lakes.

Light snow will begin to spread into the area from south to north
early in the morning with a transition to heavier/more widespread
snowfall into the mid to late morning. While the warm conveyor and
best warm air advection/moisture advection is displaced well
east/southeast of the storm center, a decent feed of moisture with
H85/H7 specific humidity values of 2 to 4 g/kg will pivot into the
area back into the deformation/northern periphery of TROWAL as the
cyclone makes its closest approach on Wednesday afternoon. Models
soundings show a very deep layer of moisture to H5 or higher,
focused in the 10 am to 4 pm time frame, as the best upper lift
associated with the upper jet circulation lifts northeast through
the region and the strongest FGEN occurs.

During this period, the best lift coincides with the elevated DGZ
region centered around 600 mb with a deep super saturated layer
underneath this. This should promote decent snowfall rates with an
overabundance of crystals of all configurations/sizes. Rates of 1"
per hr at times during this 4-6 hour window will be quite possible
with most of the snow accumulations during this event occurring from
the late morning to late afternoon period.

These rates will be sufficient to overcome the "poor" timing as the
best snow falls through the mildest middle of the daytime period
(although the 32F or so surface temperatures will still have some
impact on accumulation potential on paved surfaces). This may also
become evident downwind of Lake Erie as this is not a typical late
January event in the sense that there is little/no ice cover on the
lake and a pocket of +2C water sits in the western portion of the
lake. Although this should not have too drastic an impact, this may
cut back on accumulations just a bit near the shoreline.

Once this area of best lift/moisture depth passes, the zone of best
snowfall rates will narrow considerably to a track immediately along
and north of the surface cyclone track which will likely clip the
far southern forecast area from late afternoon into early evening.
It is in this area that the overall accumulations should be the
greatest and perhaps around 7 inches.

After careful deliberation, have opted to transition the Winter
Storm Watch into the Winter Storm Warning for the 3 counties in far
southeast Michigan. The highest accumulations seem most likely
nearer the MI/IN/OH state line, but the trajectory of the system
also puts downriver locations such as Wyandotte into a favorable
zone for a slightly extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be issued on north into the I-69
corridor angling northeast into the Thumb where some lake
enhancement will also come into play late in the day Wednesday.

It should be noted that the difference in impacts between the
warning and advisory in/around the metro Detroit area will be
relatively minor in the overall scope of the storm. A majority of
this sector should receive 4 to 5 inches with local amounts possibly
pushing 6 inches during a 12-14 hour period Wednesday with the
higher end amounts, favored south of I-94, topping out more
consistently near 6 inches with some local 7 inch amounts where
higher snowfall rates are most persistent during the afternoon
period.

North towards the I-69 corridor, especially into the Flint area, 3
to 4 inches will be more reasonable, as the heaviest rates largely
bypass this area to the east/southeast. Into the Thumb region, some
lake enhancement will occur from late afternoon into the evening and
bring some local 5+ inch amounts as accumulating snow persists for
several hours longer.

Winds throughout this system should be modest, 15 to 25 mph, so
blowing and drifting snow, while not absent, should be relatively
minor in terms of impacts. The caveat will be over the Thumb where
locations along the immediate Lake Huron shoreline will receive
notably higher gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range from late Wednesday
into Wednesday night which will combine with the slightly high snow
totals of 4-5 inches to produce reduced visibility in blowing snow
and also some modest drifting. Even over the Thumb, snow should
taper off to flurries by 10 pm to midnight.

[jaster220]

No thd for this so tossing in here. NAM bringing the windy clipper snows Fri

[Clinton]

27 minutes ago, Niko said:

Dont forget mby too amigo!!!!

Of course I meant the whole area!

[Clinton]

CMC stayed very consistent, here's the 0z run I'll be curious to see how it does.

[jaster220]

@Niko This stretch coming our way may end up being one of those historic 3 wk periods SMI can get once in a while. There were a pair in the last triple-Nina. Jan '99 (one of the few times Detroit had 24" snow depth), and Dec '00 that featured a bliz and snow after snow. Stay tuned..

[Clinton]

38 minutes ago, Niko said:

I just saw my radar and man, that moisture to my SW is just waiting to explode here in S MI. Look out.

@jaster220 take a look at ya radar.....veryyy impressive to what is coming.

Reel it in, it's going to be a fun day for ya tomorrow!

[Clinton]

Snow falling hard enough now that it's over powering the warm ground and starting to accumulate. I suck at taking pictures at night but I tried to get the big fatties that are falling.

[Niko]

17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko This stretch coming our way may end up being one of those historic 3 wk periods SMI can get once in a while. There were a pair in the last triple-Nina. Jan '99 (one of the few times Detroit had 24" snow depth), and Dec '00 that featured a bliz and snow after snow. Stay tuned..

Indeed....Its going to get crazy here over the next couple of days amigo. I saw my extended and literally jumped off my chair. Fun times ahead.

[Niko]

24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Of course I meant the whole area!

[Niko]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Snow falling hard enough now that it's over powering the warm ground and starting to accumulate. I suck at taking pictures at night but I tried to get the big fatties that are falling.

Great job amigo!!! Bravo!

[Stacsh]

I have a hard time believing this system will only produce 2” of snow here as forecasted. 

[Niko]

Get ready to get inundated!!!!

[Clinton]

Getting white fast!

 

 

[winterfreak]

24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

Getting white fast!

 

 

Same here. Big fat flakes.

[Clinton]

Light snow is falling now and I have 2 inches on the ground with a temperature of 31.  It should be beautiful day with the snow stuck to everything, I'll try to take some pictures after work today if it doesn't melt first.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, JSMY said:

I rarely post as I’m just a novice winter weather watcher. I’ve learned so much through this forum the last few years I’ve been a member. I tell my husband and son what @Tom is seeing. @jaster220 @Niko Ive read your posts for years. I’m just down to your South in Brownstown. (Monroe county line) Thank you all for sharing your insights and excitement. I’ve got big hopes down here for this one! 

Nice to hear from you and thanks for the kind words...thanks @Nikoas well.  It's nice to see more members chime in over this part of the Sub.  Should be a fun storm to track throughout the day.  I woke up to snow falling at a steady pace and have just under 1" of new snow OTG.  Cheers to all!

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Light snow is falling now and I have 2 inches on the ground with a temperature of 31.  It should be beautiful day with the snow stuck to everything, I'll try to take some pictures after work today if it doesn't melt first.

Was this about what you expected from this system?  I'm just catching up on all the posts and model data.  I think the NAM nailed the enhanced frontogenesis over N IL.  The radar looks good and the snowfal rates are decent up this way about 3/4 mile.

[Clinton]

NAM and CMC did well here.  I'm up to 2.7 inches now and some 4 inch reports near Pleasant Hill, MO on the SE side of KC.  Yes it is and I'm happy with what I got.  Glad your getting some snow good luck today!

[Tom]

@Tony @FV-Mike Radar looks great for NE IL...nice burst of heavier SN rates as they have picked up over here.  Dendrites are nice and big which is accumulating quickly. 

[MKEstorm]

Snowflakes starting to fall at 5:50 a.m….

almost forgot what snow looked like, lol.

[Tom]

0z Euro...just for fun bc it's nowcast time, however, I will say, the Euro was not the KING as far as model trends up this way.  Like @Clinton said, the NAM and CMC really did a better job a couple days ago and then the GFS "saw" the heavier snows up here.  It also looks like there is a good chance of seeing embedded heavier snow showers/squalls on Thursday that can add a quick 1" or so.  

 

The inverted trough over C IL/N IL is in a perfect alignment to enhance the snowfall and radar is looking quite nice...this storm is really starting to show signs of coming together for the Lower Lakes.  All the models show it tracking just SE of DTW over CLE into the mid 990'smb.  Classic OHV Cutter!

 

 

[westMJim]

According to official NWS forecast for Grand Rapids for today they are still thinking there will be just around 2 to 3" here in metro GR. Very light snow started here just a few minutes ago. Looking out the window there is now a trace of snow on the ground.

[Tom]

Just measured 2.2" on my deck and radar still looking good.  Gosh, we may be able to overachieve up this way.  It's snowing at about 0.5"/hr.

[KCSmokey]

We got right around 2.7 inches here in N. Overland Park.  I’ll take it!

[WinterSquall23]

Just got that bump, went from. WWA to a WSW this morning! Woke up to this so far!

 

Sweet!

[Stacsh]

8 hours ago, Stacsh said:

I have a hard time believing this system will only produce 2” of snow here as forecasted. 

I see totals have been slightly bumped up.  

[Jayhawker85]

Woke up to a freezing 31 degrees this morning! Snow is over and the streets are just wet to a light slush since temps never got cold enough. I would say we got about 2 inches on the ground, would have been 6-8 had it been 5 degrees colder!

[Niko]

Upgraded to WSW Finally!!!!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

MIZ069-070-075-252100-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0001.230125T1000Z-230126T0100Z/
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-
Including the cities of Pontiac, Warren, and Ann Arbor
353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow band of light snow has lifted into
  southern Michigan as of 4am. There may be minor accumulations
  with this lead band which could lead to hazardous conditions
  during the morning peak travel period. Snow will then steadily
  increase in coverage and intensity with the peak of the heaviest
  snowfall rates between 10 AM and 4 PM Wednesday. Travel
  conditions will deteriorate considerably during the afternoon
  into the evening commute.

[WinterSquall23]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

Upgraded to WSW Finally!!!!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

MIZ069-070-075-252100-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.WS.W.0001.230125T1000Z-230126T0100Z/
Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-
Including the cities of Pontiac, Warren, and Ann Arbor
353 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow band of light snow has lifted into
  southern Michigan as of 4am. There may be minor accumulations
  with this lead band which could lead to hazardous conditions
  during the morning peak travel period. Snow will then steadily
  increase in coverage and intensity with the peak of the heaviest
  snowfall rates between 10 AM and 4 PM Wednesday. Travel
  conditions will deteriorate considerably during the afternoon
  into the evening commute.

Awesome!  The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us!  I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. 

[Stacsh]

I’m going to have 2” by 10 am

[Niko]

5 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Awesome!  The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us!  I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. 

I agree...I am seeing some potentially 10"+ for some locales w/ this storm.  Surprises are certainly possible w/ this major snowstorm.

Btw: Great pics this morning from ur neck of the woods.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Awesome!  The precip shield looks like a blue wall heading right for us!  I think maybe this storm has some surprises (good) for a lot of us here. 

Yup, when I woke up this morning and looked at the radar it looked like this was going to really start intensifying.  You guys are golden!

[Tom]

17 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Just got that bump, went from. WWA to a WSW this morning! Woke up to this so far!

 

Sweet!

Ol' Man Winter has cometh back to our neck of the woods!

[Tom]

06z Euro...nice signal showing up for N IL to get some snow squalls during the day on Thursday.  I'm diggin' it!  I could live with this and to top it off, it'll be a bit colder and during the day.

 

[Niko]

NOAA:

On a broad scale the system looks really good. A deep upper level
trough is carved out through the Plains with a 140 knot jet rounding
the trough tonight and turning up toward the eastern Lakes and
directing a strong mid level wave into the lower Great Lakes. A
slowly strengthening surface low will track up through Ohio and
western Lake Erie this evening keeping SE MI in the favorable nw
quadrant of snowfall production. Upper level diffluence will be
overhead with a coupled jet, as well as a secondary shortwave
dropping into the trough which should keep the lead wave from
becoming too progressive by introducing height falls to the west.

The track of the surface low to the west of Cleveland lifting into
the Ontario Peninsula has become the consensus and changed little
over the last 24 hours. This is an ideal track to bring the
deformation axis and trowal across SE MI. The system will have good
moisture as it was over the deep south yesterday with moisture feed
from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs will rise to around a half inch with
specific humidities at least 2-3 g/Kg and potentially up to 4.
Soundings show saturation up through about 550 mb which encompasses
the DGZ which is centered around 600mb which good omega in that
region.

Weather pattern will remain active through the upcoming week as we
remain near the base of the longwave trough which will steer a train
of shortwaves through/near the region. The first wave will be
centered to the north over Ontario but the trough will swing through
lower MI bringing a chance of snowfall Friday Night. The second,
possibly more impactful, system will track along a baroclinic zone
draped across southern MI Saturday night through Sunday. This would
be a longer duration event as the main boundary moves very little
and the shearing out wave rides right along it overhead. Additional
waves may affect the area Monday and Wednesday.

[jaster220]

DTX Aviation:

VLIFR conditions will be possible at times
as +SN lifts through far southeast forecast area. Have continued to
include a TEMPO for 1/4SM +SN during the 18-21Z time window.

[jaster220]

30 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

On a broad scale the system looks really good. A deep upper level
trough is carved out through the Plains with a 140 knot jet rounding
the trough tonight and turning up toward the eastern Lakes and
directing a strong mid level wave into the lower Great Lakes. A
slowly strengthening surface low will track up through Ohio and
western Lake Erie this evening keeping SE MI in the favorable nw
quadrant of snowfall production. Upper level diffluence will be
overhead with a coupled jet, as well as a secondary shortwave
dropping into the trough which should keep the lead wave from
becoming too progressive by introducing height falls to the west.

The track of the surface low to the west of Cleveland lifting into
the Ontario Peninsula has become the consensus and changed little
over the last 24 hours. This is an ideal track to bring the
deformation axis and trowal across SE MI. The system will have good
moisture as it was over the deep south yesterday with moisture feed
from the Gulf of Mexico. PWATs will rise to around a half inch with
specific humidities at least 2-3 g/Kg and potentially up to 4.
Soundings show saturation up through about 550 mb which encompasses
the DGZ which is centered around 600mb which good omega in that
region.

Weather pattern will remain active through the upcoming week as we
remain near the base of the longwave trough which will steer a train
of shortwaves through/near the region. The first wave will be
centered to the north over Ontario but the trough will swing through
lower MI bringing a chance of snowfall Friday Night. The second,
possibly more impactful, system will track along a baroclinic zone
draped across southern MI Saturday night through Sunday. This would
be a longer duration event as the main boundary moves very little
and the shearing out wave rides right along it overhead. Additional
waves may affect the area Monday and Wednesday.

About as sweet an AFD as one could ask for really

[Niko]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

About as sweet an AFD as one could ask for really

Ikr....we are getting into a very active, snowy pattern and most importantly, a frigid one coming up down the road.

[tStacsh]

Good to see the Euro cave last minute to the short range models.   My call of a more NW track to really focus SE Michigan was spot on.   

[tStacsh]

Should score around 3-4" of daylight snow out of this today.  Not a bad consolation prize.