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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom

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DFW is at a relative warm 44* with light rain.  

We’re on the edge of the freezing stuff.  Will see 32 tonight but the rain will likely have stopped. 

We missed this one but winter isn’t over.  Californians can’t drive on ice and snow anyway and we have plenty of those here. 😄

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You're slipping there bro. The Feb 2021 storm had the entire state of IN with 8-12" maps. Coverage of that was even larger iirc, and the end of Jan '21 storm that nailed Chicago also covered the N half of Indiana into WOH with a very solid storm on the order of this one. What strikes me is how weak the output is with this GOMEX Low. I'd expect to see the entire swath about 5-6" deeper across the board.

I was making the point of not only including the MW but the S Plains in this storm scenario.

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This storm would be so much easier if we had cold air in place. The snow amounts would be much more impressive....

Here in KC, the new data has trended down and further south and east. We're still in it, should look quite wintry tomorrow morning. Hey, I'll take a snowy morning where ever I can get it. 

Good luck to everyone!!

 

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8 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

This storm would be so much easier if we had cold air in place. The snow amounts would be much more impressive....

Here in KC, the new data has trended down and further south and east. We're still in it, should look quite wintry tomorrow morning. Hey, I'll take a snowy morning where ever I can get it. 

Good luck to everyone!!

 

I guess i shouldn’t be too upset with the last minute shift SE since this was never “KC’s” storm but hopefully we can pull out 1-2 inches tonight 

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7 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I guess i shouldn’t be too upset with the last minute shift SE since this was never “KC’s” storm but hopefully we can pull out 1-2 inches tonight 

Yep, I think we can score a nice winter scene by morning. On another subject, what the hell is going on with our Jayhawks? I can't remember the last time we lost 3 in a row!!!

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35 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Yep, I think we can score a nice winter scene by morning. On another subject, what the hell is going on with our Jayhawks? I can't remember the last time we lost 3 in a row!!!

I have no idea what’s going on with them sigh!! This is going to be a long month coming up with March madness approaching if they don’t get it together. As long as the chiefs make the Super Bowl I’m happy lol

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5 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I have no idea what’s going on with them sigh!! This is going to be a long month coming up with March madness approaching if they don’t get it together. As long as the chiefs make the Super Bowl I’m happy lol

Everyone feels very sorry for Kansas losing 3 in a row... LOL.  Defending national champs...  Won the Big 12 like 19 of 20 years.  How awful it must be to be a Jayhawk fan. :P 

If you want misery, be a Hawkeye fan.  Haven't won a regular season Big Ten title since 1979 (I wasn't even born) and haven't gone to the Sweet 16 since 1999.  Then we show flashes of greatness (like last year) only to fall flat on our face.  

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The NE Kansas Weather Rule is storms that are north trend further north and storms that are south trend further south. Call it settled science if you will...lol.

Hope those in the path score big! I'm out...can't get excited about yet another 0-1 incher.🥱

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.3" (as of 2/17/24)

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Last minute model trends keeping heaviest stuff south of the Tulsa area now, with some as little as an inch or so here. Others still keep us in the gradient with 3-6". I'll stick with my 2-5" forecast, but this may end up busting here. Just a little to the south they will get slammed. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Last minute model trends keeping heaviest stuff south of the Tulsa area now, with some as little as an inch or so here. Others still keep us in the gradient with 3-6". I'll stick with my 2-5" forecast, but this may end up busting here. Just a little to the south they will get slammed. 

It's a massive precip shield, but look how far Tulsa is from the SLP

Static map

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DTX has waffled on the snow intensity for tomorrow night. I see they are back to the +SN idea again.

 

23-01-24 DTX Grid Icon-cast 3am.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, jaster220 said:

DTX has waffled on the snow intensity for tomorrow night. I see they are back to the +SN idea again.

 

23-01-24 DTX Grid Icon-cast 3am.PNG

I just saw that too. Mine is the same amigo as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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Spread the wealth. @tStacsh with a headline 😀

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

I just saw that too. Mine is the same amigo as well.

I think they liked the 6z Euro. 12z NAM also has a nice looking burst mid-afternoon for us. Should be #funtimes amigo

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, jaster220 said:

I think they liked the 6z Euro. 12z NAM also has a nice looking burst mid-afternoon for us. Should be #funtimes amigo

You bet. Also, I am now starting to see a very thin layer of high clouds starting to move in.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Spread the wealth. @tStacsh with a headline 😀

 

A few inches will at least make it look like winter out.  (I'm still thinking we end up with at least 3" here in GR)   Not complaining.  With the cold shots coming and some systems, our side of Michigan will look like winter for the next couple weeks with Lake Michigan wide open.     Hope you guys can score 5-6" or even more out of this.  

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The Update is, well, the Update LOL

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

We will be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory momentarily from
500am to 1000pm on Wednesday. The will include the southern row of
counties along I-94, the next row of counties to the north
from Allegan over to Ingham and the next row from Kent east
through Clinton. At this time we feel the heaviest snow will occur
in the southeast section of our forecast area including
Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Jackson, Eaton Rapids and Lansing. 3-6
inches of snow is likely in this southeast group. In the remaining
counties we are expecting 2-5 inches of new snow. The morning
commute will be impacted along I-94 as the snow moves in between
500am and 600am. All areas in the advisory will see impacts during
the afternoon/evening commute. Kent County is on the fringe of
needing to be included, but we feel enough snow will occur in the
several hours (noon-300pm) leading into the evening commute that
impacts will push conditions into the Advisory category there.

As for the details, the models have been fairly steady state now
for several runs tracking the low to the northeast through the
state of Ohio. The low center Wednesday evening at 00z is in the
vicinity of Cleveland which is generally not a good location (a
bit too far to the east) to give the GRR cwa warning level snow.
The ECWMF actually tracks the low to the east of Cleveland. BUFKIT
overviews at JXN are fairly impressive with fairly strong lift
through a deep layer, including into and through the DGZ. We
should see snow rates towards or exceeding 1 inch per hour during
the day on Wednesday. Most significant impacts will be to travel,
especially given the fact that much of the area has not see
appreciable snow in weeks.

&&
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

Good stuff.  That should be a headline.  

Yes..tell that to NOAA!! Matter of time I guess. It will either be a WWA or WSW, even though, my forecast is calling for heavy snow tomorrow and part of tomorrow nite w/ 5-7"+.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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I could be fine with this

 

23-01-24 12z HRRR Snowfall-SLR.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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25 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

A few inches will at least make it look like winter out.  (I'm still thinking we end up with at least 3" here in GR)   Not complaining.  With the cold shots coming and some systems, our side of Michigan will look like winter for the next couple weeks with Lake Michigan wide open.     Hope you guys can score 5-6" or even more out of this.  

I think it will be the first time this season the entire state has a real blanket of white. Plus temps stay wintry

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I could be fine with this

 

23-01-24 12z HRRR Snowfall-SLR.png

6"+ I'd say is a good call for our region.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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4 hours ago, winterfreak said:

NAM finally came to its senses. Dusting - 1” would be my call. KC classic.

We’ll, I think it’s safe to say this is not mid Missouri’s storm either. More models than not now only have around 2” here. 

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(SIGH)..we finally get a sunny day (along with an extra 8 or more degs warming) the day leading into a storm when we don't need it. 🙄

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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20 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Can't help but think what this storm really could have been with colder air for points north of center of projected path.  I think the southern end of the predicted swath of heavier snows will struggle with a sloppy mess.  

Yep. For comparisons, the 2/24/16 GOMEX storm with cold air would've easily been a 15-18" Big Dog. Marshall ended with 11.6" thanks to the warm slop-fest scenario. Hoping temps get down to 32F and stay there tomorrow. By 0z we should be safely below freezing and whatever mushiness will be on it's way to solidifying.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Nam seems better and more expanded snowfield on the NW flank.  

 

NAMnew.thumb.gif.e8957e1dc3dccf413d492b2912cd846b.gif 

Definitely lingers snow westward into IA & WI. Might be why some of the more robust totals to my SW aren't happening up here. Sure has a death band of front-end stuff down in S Ohio of all places. Looks like a tiny bit of that finally gets into my area in the early evening.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

Thick soupy clouds here,  all winter, every day.  I'll trade ya.  

This is the ONE day I would gladly take what GRR is getting attm

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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32 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

HRR has bumped north and Detroit does well.  Takes the low closer to Cleveland where the Euro is East of Cleveland.

hrrr_asnow_ncus_40.thumb.png.2fb3841d5056dbd8a31263fa8ee0e0d1.png

 

Liking that track. I do think that model will over-inflate a bit tho I'd love it to be correct on this one, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Liking that track. I do think that model will over-inflate a bit tho I'd love it to be correct on this one, lol

Oh, I don't buy the higher end totals of this storm...yet.   Not one forecaster is predicting anything outrageous.  Most still have Detroit in the 5" high end range.    Just monitoring the trends.  

 

My call is for it to outperform the 2" forecasted here.  I've seen it time and time again, NW of the forecasted snow area always seems to do better than advertised.  

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