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1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter


Tom

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Went back and pulled some maps from the last GO/Mex low we had.  There are some differences the first being it was cutoff the last time and there are no signs as of now that this one will be.  Also a ton of similarities especially for Oklahoma and Texas with precipitation and the track itself.  Also the models struggled big time with the previous storm, underestimating the QPF for all areas and never even getting close to my total 2 inches. Also the track was adjusted further west inside 84hrs.  It was a rare occasion that QPF outperformed the models and expectations.  That doesn't mean it will this time or that the storm will behave the same way.  But a further shift NW is certainly possible.

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Screen Shot 2022-11-27 at 6.17.25 AM.png

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Subtle differences between @Tom's anticipated ORD Big Dog, and a decent "share it baby" storm for DTW

640299532_EuroORDstorm.png.79a9b29af394a1b06165277bd09d54cb.png1903350671_EuroDTWstorm.png.f034349f6d785c3fe19d7e207ea03026.png

Ofc, the GFS went beast mode for SMI, which is typical. 

44025124_GFSBigDogstorm.png.5d3e4b9e9029c7cef73e4eb3812fb54c.png

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Went back and pulled some maps from the last GO/Mex low we had.  There are some differences the first being it was cutoff the last time and there are no signs as of now that this one will be.  Also a ton of similarities especially for Oklahoma and Texas with precipitation and the track itself.  Also the models struggled big time with the previous storm, underestimating the QPF for all areas and never even getting close to my total 2 inches. Also the track was adjusted further west inside 84hrs.  It was a rare occasion that QPF outperformed the models and expectations.  That doesn't mean it will this time or that the storm will behave the same way.  But a further shift NW is certainly possible.

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Screen Shot 2022-11-27 at 6.17.25 AM.png

I remember that. It was the Cut-off with zero cold air connection. Well, here it is lol. Latest models showing the precip weaker instead of stonger. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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ORD

Models are notorious for struggling both with the
movement and timing of cut off lows (like the one digging into the
southwest) and also can struggle at times handling the interaction
of northern and southern stream waves, like is progged mid-week.
All of this to say, that current strong model agreement doesn`t
necessarily equate with high confidence in the forecast. If the
timing or amplitude of either wave changes much, then the degree
of interaction could change. Less interaction could result in a
sharper cut off to the snow on the northwest flank of the system,
or a track farther south could lessen our snow amounts. Conversely,
more interaction/phasing and the heavier snow with the TROWAL
could result in higher impact accumulations farther north into our
CWA.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

ORD

Models are notorious for struggling both with the
movement and timing of cut off lows (like the one digging into the
southwest) and also can struggle at times handling the interaction
of northern and southern stream waves, like is progged mid-week.
All of this to say, that current strong model agreement doesn`t
necessarily equate with high confidence in the forecast. If the
timing or amplitude of either wave changes much, then the degree
of interaction could change. Less interaction could result in a
sharper cut off to the snow on the northwest flank of the system,
or a track farther south could lessen our snow amounts. Conversely,
more interaction/phasing and the heavier snow with the TROWAL
could result in higher impact accumulations farther north into our
CWA.

Not to make a huge deal out of something that may be nothing but models were off my nearly an inch previously at mby.  I found this to be interesting though, I believe you finished with 1.04 inches.

DTX confirming that this GOMEX Low is quite the wet system:

Unseasonably high moisture will accompany this
system as PWAT values of around 0.25" this evening will quickly
climb between 0.75" to just over 1.00" by Sunday morning. These
values fall easily in the 90th percentile for this time of year. The
main surface low track will move over the Toledo area and into
western Lake Erie during the afternoon and place the best
deformation zone and subsequent higher rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00"
along and south of the I-69 corridor. Lower rainfall totals of 0.25-
0.50" are expected north of I-69.

 

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euiro 

1674709200-TgmWwVmBRXM.png

Could say that's just an 18z run. Could say it's a step back from 12z. Could say that OHIO being ground-zero for today's appetizer is very bad ju-ju for 2nd storm. Could say (you come up with one)

EDIT - Nvrmd. I see the problem. New model here. (18z Euiro) I thought you had posted the EURO

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Not to make a huge deal out of something that may be nothing but models were off my nearly an inch previously at mby.  I found this to be interesting though, I believe you finished with 1.04 inches.

DTX confirming that this GOMEX Low is quite the wet system:

Unseasonably high moisture will accompany this
system as PWAT values of around 0.25" this evening will quickly
climb between 0.75" to just over 1.00" by Sunday morning. These
values fall easily in the 90th percentile for this time of year. The
main surface low track will move over the Toledo area and into
western Lake Erie during the afternoon and place the best
deformation zone and subsequent higher rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00"
along and south of the I-69 corridor. Lower rainfall totals of 0.25-
0.50" are expected north of I-69.

 

Yep, remember clearly being excited for a winter version but leery of "no cold", and "no cold" could still be "no bueno" in the end. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice fatties floating down attm. Today reminding what winter actually looks like. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice fatties floating down attm. Today reminding what winter actually looks like. 

It just doesn't wanna stop!! 😬

Btw: the radar just blossomed. Nice batch over us now. Could be adding more to that today of 3.3."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

It just doesn't wanna stop!! 😬

Btw: the radar just blossomed. Nice batch over us now.

Which is odd since the backside of Wed's storm keeps looking less and less robust (scratches head). The tree branches that had melted off look to be getting covered again. 

Thought I'd better save a copy before it's taken down, lol

 

23-01-22 20z ICON.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Currently 57. Humidity at 37.  
A real chill in the air.  
Rain will arrive Tuesday.  Haven’t heard when this should change over to the frozen stuff.  
While it won’t last long I’m not looking forward to all those S. Californians on our highways.  
Some may be quite skilled, but some - oh boy!  Our city has changed a good deal and things haven’t really shaken out just yet.  
44 high, 34-32 low (estimated). Wind ~16mph. Overpasses will be slick.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

21z SREF is an improvement for all of us vs 15z.  Haven't seen anyone post the SREF Mean which probably means it hasn't performed well.  I haven't had anything to judge it off of.

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

Nice. Can only hope 18z Euro was an "off run" but it's concerning with the NAM looking kinda weak sauce as well (keep in mind it sniffed out the Christmas bomb bust first). So wrapped-up in this, I didn't notice GFS's weekender system

 

23-01-22 18z GFS h168 Surface.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice. Can only hope 18z Euro was an "off run" but it's concerning with the NAM looking kinda weak sauce as well (keep in mind it sniffed out the Christmas bomb bust first). So wrapped-up in this, I didn't notice GFS's weekender system

 

23-01-22 18z GFS h168 Surface.png

Euro ensembles going south tonight.  Red flag alert!

1674820800-1aLz8Xni2xk.png

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Yikes. Ohio wins again. Well, that was fun for a hot minute..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The trailing shortwave that helps to force the cut off lows path is still in the GOA. That's coming onshore tonight near 9Z in BC Canada. Probably as that gets resolved it'll be the last chance for any adjustments. Being we are within 48 hours, I wouldn't count on any big changes at this point. Most of the differences we are seeing come down to microphysics/resolution...so probably ECMWF has the best bet of being "right". Might end up being 1-2" for me, or maybe less lol 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS

1674777600-Jqm26xXvg4M.png

12z CMC

1674777600-JqocdnO0oRY.png

 

Not sure what to think about this. They’re calling for 1-3” in my area. Marginal temps. I’ve only had around 5” all winter. I’m still hoping for at least one good storm before Spring. Not a fan of wet snow. 

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0z NAM looks sweet. Gives @Tompl at least close to 4-5" snowfall. Good for S MI and @Clintonand of course other MO members.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM is getting real interesting.  It continues to bring the heavy snow band further NW, warning level snows are now only about 35 miles to my south.  It also wraps in some more energy in Canada and pulls it south.

image.thumb.gif.1d1f653a893a35648f67be576a2a77e1.gif

snku_acc-imp.us_c.png

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

Haven’t most storm this winter trended NW at the last minute? Or NW of where forecasted?

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Further N at h72

 

23-01-23 0z NAM h72 Surface.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

RDPS looks similar to the NAM

Nice. Been so long since anything was worthy of tracking and I have gotten a new laptop I lost track of what models run when exactly. Thx for keeping up with it all. Almost missed this nice graphic DTX published this morning. I see the NAM lingers snow all night (Wed) here and they mention some snow into the evening.

 

 

23-01-22 2am DTX Storm Graphic.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Tom & @Hoosier

NAM with nice snows up in your neck of the woods

 

23-01-23 0z NAM h84 SN.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS Sub-1000mb at h60, and at h72 it now aligns with what the GEM showed 3 days ago 😆

 

23-01-23 0z GFS h60 Surface.png

23-01-23 0z GFS h72 Surface.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Not a bad run, leaves me in a bit of a snowhole this run but nice big snow shield.

I don't always look at the snowfall maps since that will be the final puzzle piece to be put in place. Improved dynamics will usually portend improved output as well. I would love to stay at or below 32F all during the storm here. Going to be an uphill battle but NAM does it, and RGEM is really close so I think I have a shot. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I don't always look at the snowfall maps since that will be the final puzzle piece to be put in place. Improved dynamics will usually portend improved output as well. I would love to stay at or below 32F all during the storm here. Going to be an uphill battle but NAM does it, and RGEM is really close so I think I have a shot. 

CMC is improving for us also.

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15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GFS Sub-1000mb at h60, and at h72 it now aligns with what the GEM showed 3 days ago 😆

 

23-01-23 0z GFS h60 Surface.png

23-01-23 0z GFS h72 Surface.png

 

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Not a bad run, leaves me in a bit of a snowhole this run but nice big snow shield.

This storm will have a lot of moisture to work w. Gotta luv GOM LP areas.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9" So far......BN

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Season So Far: 21.8"

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