1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[Stacsh]

Track needs to pull west for it to be a stronger storm.   Otherwise it won’t be much of a snowstorm.  

[jaster220]

36 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Track needs to pull west for it to be a stronger storm.   Otherwise it won’t be much of a snowstorm.  

We just need SNOW period, lol

This was never a GHD-1 level event

[ATW]

2 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

Is there a real chance this thing comes back NW like it was showing yesterday? I really need it to in my backyard, I'm so close to the good stuff. lol

Looking worse for us. Temps even look marginal for many. 

[jaster220]

IWX

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

Eyeballs here will generally be interested in one thing only: A
possible winter storm. I continue to approach this system with a
great degree of caution. But, I do concede that model agreement is
pretty good at this time. Turning first to 00z 500-mb EOFs
(Empirical Orthogonal Functions), there is only a hit of
disagreement among the ensemble members with respect to the trough`s
intensity over the Southern Plains (ending 00z Thursday, as
evidenced by a monopole over west TX). Toggling through the past
couple GFS Ensemble and ECMWF Ensemble runs show that the GEFS has
gradually shifted the surface low to the southeast while aloft,
there has been very little deviation in its 500mb pattern. There is
variability noted in the ECMWF Ens. with respect to the depth of the
trough (consistent with the EOF plot) while there was little to
no change in the location of the surface low. The last four runs
of the in- house National Blend of Models has gradually moved the
snow axis southeast away from the Lake.

To make sense of the above: a winter storm likely moves through the
OH River Valley region. I cannot reliably say who is going to see
snow and how much. A shift in the upper-air pattern and low below
will certainly impact snow totals. A shift southeast could result
in little to no snow for half of the forecast area, while a shift
northwest could bring an area of heavy snow to much of the
forecast area. Just because the model agreement/consistency has
been favorable now donesn`t mean that will continue between now
and Wednesday afternoon (96 hours from now). With a subtle shift
to the southeast noted today in some guidance, this trend will
need to be monitored. The upper-level wave responsible for this
storm will arrive onshore in the Pacific Northwest within the next
12 hours.

Midweek system aside, temperatures will still be a touch mild for
late-January at the start of the week. It may be briefly colder
behind the midweek system with another shot of snow possible late
in the week.

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...it's been many many years since we can say that a true winter storm laid down snow from the Ozarks of OK/AR up thru the S MW/OHV....

 

 

 

 

0z Euro Control...

This has been long overdue, should it all verify. A right and true "classic" in our era. 

[jaster220]

DTX

The next storm system that is expected to impact the region is just
now coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig
sharply SSE into the southwestern CONUS and/or far northern Mexico
and cutoff briefly before additional northern stream jet energy
drops through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/Great Plains
and forces this system to eject east/northeastward and then eject
northeastward into the southern plains early next week. This system
will then pull northeast into the general vicinity by midweek as
additional shortwave energy digging into the northwest quadrant of
the CONUS leads to a general amplification of the western/central
CONUS upper trough.

Given the fact that this system cuts off and then is re-integrated
back into the main upper level flow, the overall confidence in the
precise positioning by next Wednesday (when it is currently expected
to be nearest the region) is relatively low. During this sequence, a
number of northern stream shortwaves, both leading and trailing this
southern system, traverse the northern tier of the country. The lack
of confidence in the eventual timing/strength of these features
leads to additional uncertainty as the evolution of the northern
stream will play a large role in the steering of this storm system.

This should be a rather impactful system overall as its southern
trajectory will allow for strong moisture transport back north into
the eastern CONUS from the Gulf region with widespread rainfall and
a band of decent snowfall along the north/northwest edge of its
track. Perusing the model data today, the main question for the
southern Great Lakes looks to be just how far north this area of
snowfall works into the area.

The main camp seems to suggest the most likely scenario will be for
a "glancing" blow as this system remains progressive and does not
allow for extensive moisture to lift/wrap north and northwest into
the area. This would more or less support moderate snow amounts
(say 2-5 inches) of at least parts of the area. Personally, it
appears to me too early to make any clear calls given the myriad of
concerns present that would impact the steering/evolution of this
main system as it progresses into the general vicinity. With better
sampling of the shortwave itself, and to a lesser degree northern
stream shortwaves that will impact the steering currents, perhaps a
slightly better feel for the system will develop by tomorrow.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This has been long overdue, should it all verify. A right and true "classic" in our era. 

Can say that again!

[Niko]

18z Euro

Looks a tad north.

[Clinton]

EAX AFD:

With the midweek system, the trend has been to take the system
further south. Models are now taking the low from the Red River
Valley Tuesday night northeastward along the I-44 corridor into
Illinois by Wednesday evening. This will put the local area on the
north side of the precipitation shield as the system slides south of
the area. Temperatures at this time look cold enough to support snow
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning however, precipitation should
be fairly light. As such, it does look like light snow accumulation
will be possible generally south of Highway 36 with heaviest amounts
across central Missouri. That being said this system is just coming
on shore in the Pacific Northwest and will be sampled better in the
next day giving us a better idea of track this system will take.

[winterfreak]

Not weather related, but…GOOO CHIEFS!

[Andie]

North Texas will see a 50% chance of rain Monday. Tuesday brings 100% chance of rain.  
Most welcomed. It’s been very dry.  
Rain Monday. High 58. Low 39
Rain/Snow Tuesday. High 44 Low 34

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Not weather related, but…GOOO CHIEFS!

Mahomes is an Alien!  What a tough dude.

[winterfreak]

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Mahomes is an Alien!  What a tough dude.

Special and inspirational. Henne and Reid with the 98 yard TD drive. Amazing!

[Black Hole]

As things stand this evening, EPS shows about a 20% chance of nothing and a 10% chance of 6+" for the Tulsa area. So the majority of guidance is going for something in the 1-3" range. That seems reasonable for now, but we won't know for sure until we can pin down the track of the upper level features of interest. 

Probably still somebody within 300 miles of here that gets 6+". 

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z NAM

Is this from better sampling or is this the NAM doing NAM things?

[Black Hole]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Is this from better sampling or is this the NAM doing NAM things?

Probably the latter lol. But that said, it drops 6-8" (likely 3-6" adjusting for it being 33-34F) in my area so I'd take it. 

[KTPmidMO]

So, does anyone else find it weird this storm is coming from four corners and the low literally skirts the Texas and Louisianna coastline and then takes a beeline straight north almost through the Missouri boot hill? Several models depict this. Or is this fairly common and I've just never noticed it?

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

So, does anyone else find it weird this storm is coming from four corners and the low literally skirts the Texas and Louisianna coastline and then takes a beeline straight north almost through the Missouri boot hill? Several models depict this. Or is this fairly common and I've just never noticed it?

It is NOT common, that's why it's so interesting. Too bad we have such lame back-drop temps this winter. Could've been a monster. 1002 mb SLP is laughable. Just yesterday? we were seeing multiple models flashing as low as 983 mb in NOH. Models are, shall we say, just a bit drunk in the d5+ range

[winterfreak]

0z GFS:

[Clinton]

Just now, winterfreak said:

0z GFS:

Well the 0z NAM and GFS are looking better. Let's bring it north some more.

[Jayhawker85]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

0z GFS:

I can see this actually happening since in the 1st cycle this produced .4 -.60 amount of precip at that time 

[Clinton]

0z GFS 

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Well the 0z NAM and GFS are looking better. Let's bring it north some more.

GFS stronger now - sub 1000 and maintains deeping into Erie before x-fer. Steps back in a very positive direction. I will sleep well

[jaster220]

NAM's going to go big I think once in range. Even tonight's GFS dumps bigly on NWAR

[Clinton]

0z CMC

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GFS stronger now - sub 1000 and maintains deeping into Erie before x-fer. Steps back in a very positive direction. I will sleep well

I thought you would like that run.  Good way to end the night.

[KTPmidMO]

GEFS mean looks to be coming in stronger than previous runs.

[Black Hole]

GEFS indeed looks better for OK/AR folks. Lots of great members in there. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

GEFS mean looks to be coming in stronger than previous runs.

Looks like it will take a big jump NW.

[Clinton]

0z GEFS a step in the right direction.

This was the 18z run

[KTPmidMO]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like it will take a big jump NW.

Big jump NW over next few runs?

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

Big jump NW over next few runs?

More like an expanded snow shield.  There are a few members that hit central MO well but Oklahoma and SE MO still remain the target area on most ensembles.

[Stacsh]

Storm transfers and dies quick.  Weak. 

[KTPmidMO]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

More like an expanded snow shield.  There are a few members that hit central MO well but Oklahoma and SE MO still remain the target area on most ensembles.

Hmm. Hopefully we get a nice jump NW tomorrow. Maybe start of a trend? Need a nice jump northwest tomorrow or Monday for our back yard. 

[KTPmidMO]

Does anyone have 18z Euro snowfall map?

[winterfreak]

46 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Does anyone have 18z Euro snowfall map?

It’ll be obsolete here in a few minutes…

[OKwx2k4]

5 hours ago, Black Hole said:

As things stand this evening, EPS shows about a 20% chance of nothing and a 10% chance of 6+" for the Tulsa area. So the majority of guidance is going for something in the 1-3" range. That seems reasonable for now, but we won't know for sure until we can pin down the track of the upper level features of interest. 

Probably still somebody within 300 miles of here that gets 6+". 

Pretty wild spread. I was reading the disco earlier. I understand going with the lower amount based on that and possible melting in spite of a time when its really going to puke great snow here by all modeled outcomes. Fun couple of days coming up. 

[Tom]

While not the Big Dog that I initially that this would end up being, I like where I sit to score a few inches of snow and kick start the return of Winter around these parts.  0z Euro and the other models are showing better interaction with the the northern energy that should keep lighter snows falling for a longer period of time that should add up in spots.  I like these set ups bc it usually produces bonus snows.

0z EPS seems to be targeting the S MO/C IL/IN up into SE MI...

 

0z EPS... @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistancestill in the game and looking like a few inches or more coming your way...

 

 

0z Euro Control...little more generous down in OK....mind you, it takes into account whats falling today as I don't have the ability to separate the systems...

[OKwx2k4]

@Tom I like what I see there. There's huge agreement amongst most members of my area getting 6-10 inches at the moment. 

@jaster220, I think you're getting cut off this one but looks like the arctic express after may drop off some snow up there after. 

It looks like a repeat blitz to start February, but we gotta see how this shakes out first.

[Clinton]

14 minutes ago, Tom said:

While not the Big Dog that I initially that this would end up being, I like where I sit to score a few inches of snow and kick start the return of Winter around these parts.  0z Euro and the other models are showing better interaction with the the northern energy that should keep lighter snows falling for a longer period of time that should add up in spots.  I like these set ups bc it usually produces bonus snows.

0z EPS seems to be targeting the S MO/C IL/IN up into SE MI...

 

0z EPS... @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole @Iceresistancestill in the game and looking like a few inches or more coming your way...

 

 

0z Euro Control...little more generous down in OK....mind you, it takes into account whats falling today as I don't have the ability to separate the systems...

6z GFS showing that interaction with the northern wave and keeps snow falling in the KC area long enough to lay down 2-4 inches.  @jaster220 @Niko along with the Okies  will like the look of this mornings runs.

[Tom]

06z GEFS...

 

Some pretty decent hits for a lot of us who have been missed... 

 

0z EPS...the theme here is pretty clear that we have ourselves the 1st significant snowfall of the season that'll lay down a fairly wide swath of snow as @jaster220commented on the other day.  We haven't yet seen a southern streamer to deliver the goods this winter season, so lets see how this one pan outs.

 

[Clinton]

6z NAM

 

[OKwx2k4]

"Lols at number 5". Haha.

That would be destructive. Probably going to go ahead and rule out my 30 inch snowstorm. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, OKwx2k4 said:

"Lols at number 5". Haha.

That would be destructive. Probably going to go ahead and rule out my 30 inch snowstorm. 

The scenery down your way is going to be gorgeous with that wet sticky snow.

[Tom]

06z Euro...

[jaster220]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

06z Euro...

Appreciate all the maps guys! Snowing right now at maybe 1/2" per hr. and whitening things up nicely for once. 

Not sure what happened to the track with this one? Thought it was going more N than E but by all accounts the snow swath angle is more E than N up this way. That may be a good thing for DTW, not making ORD Peeps happy at all. Does OH and IN steal the thunder? Both EPS and GEFS have the heaviest down there and I just get grazed. Looking at the 06z Euro OP above it doesn't match the snow totals there (1/2 is left-overs from today). With that track right up through OH (basically CINCI to CLE) I don't see how you get the heavy totals shown on most of the ENS members. Either they are still lagging and will be adjusting a bit NW, or I am missing something. Track on the Euro should be $$ for here, but it's weaker SN rate reflection is pretty lame for a strengthening SLP with GOMEX connections. Could be a side effect of not having a truly cold air mass to work with.

[Stacsh]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Appreciate all the maps guys! Snowing right now at maybe 1/2" per hr. and whitening things up nicely for once. 

Not sure what happened to the track with this one? Thought it was going more N than E but by all accounts the snow swath angle is more E than N up this way. That may be a good thing for DTW, not making ORD Peeps happy at all. Does OH and IN steal the thunder? Both EPS and GEFS have the heaviest down there and I just get grazed. Looking at the 06z Euro OP above it doesn't match the snow totals there (1/2 is left-overs from today). With that track right up through OH (basically CINCI to CLE) I don't see how you get the heavy totals shown on most of the ENS members. Either they are still lagging and will be adjusting a bit NW, or I am missing something. Track on the Euro should be $$ for here, but it's weaker SN rate reflection is pretty lame for a strengthening SLP with GOMEX connections. Could be a side effect of not having a truly cold air mass to work with.

Unless this pulls NW.  you should score decent for this storm.  I don’t think the dreaded mix or dry slot is going to be a problem for your area.  

[jaster220]

Just now, Stacsh said:

Unless this pulls NW.  you should score decent for this storm.  I don’t think the dreaded mix or dry slot is going to be a problem for your area.  

Thx. Yeah the NW track is a double-edged sword here. More dynamic system over all and I end up with either a dry-slotting or some flip to a mixy mess. This one being more pedestrian is sadly, just what this place needs.

[Clinton]

12z NAM