1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[Clinton]

Excited to see a WWA issued here.  Grid forecast says 2-4 inches.

[Clinton]

One concern I have is the GFS has been persistent with this dry air wrapping in right over mby.  

[WinterSquall23]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Old news, but DTX also keeping us 32F or lower during the storm looks nice

Preserving this morning's nice afd write-up for posterity:

Textbook coupling of upper level jet streaks over the central United
States will provide classic synoptic support for a winter storm
system from Texas through the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys
Tuesday through Wednesday. The recent trend of model data (ECMWF,
GFS, NAM, RDPS, and UKMET), different from a couple of days ago, is
to now preserve or harbor the absolute vorticity center as it tracks
to far Southeast Michigan or western Lake Erie basin at hour 72.
Based on the setup, this is to be expected as the models are
advertising a legit low reflection in the H3 mass fields collocated
with coherent cyclonic circulation through the depth of the
troposphere. The coherent absolute vorticity center matters as it
increases confidence the main cold side deformation should stripe
right across the cwa, keeping the midlevel dry slot south of the
state. Thus, thinking a long duration of moderate snow is in store
for Southeast Michigan including Metro Detroit. The low is shown to
deepen steadily upon approach, only really beginning to occlude as
it arrives. NAM thetae progs do show a narrow/thinning trowal axis
lifting northward into a greater chunk of the cwa. The prospects for
legitimate trowal dynamics are important as it should influence how
far northward +4" snow amounts will reach. Difficult to get too
specific with snow amounts yet as the entire system is not quite
within the hires window. The first item that will be monitored in
the model data in subsequent shifts is for the likelihood of
mesoscale snow banding. Low track, trajectories of the system
relative flow, and orientation of the isotherms suggest a good
potential for localized banding particularly south of I69. Duration
at any one location will be key both for the magnitude of the higher
amounts and also with how compact/diffuse the snowfall gradient will
be along the northern edge here in Michigan. The second item will be
the refinement of snow ratios as we get closer to the event.
Hopefully an increase in predictability on timing of frontal
surfaces aloft and the resultant intersection of the UVVs/lift
through the DGZ will provide some clarity on snow ratios. At roughly
50 hours out, preferred to go with a 10:1 or 11:1. Did not have much
issue with the collaborated QPF. Thus, the current forecast will
read 4 to 7 inches possible south of I 69 with 2 to 4 inches to the
north of I 69. Given the time horizon, some 50 hours out, will not
be issuing a Winter Storm Watch with this package.

Just barely North of the heaviest snow in Oakland county, but close enough that even a slight wobble in track would put us in the heavy stuff.  Biggest snowstorms I have seen were never predicted.  

[jaster220]

45 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Just barely North of the heaviest snow in Oakland county, but close enough that even a slight wobble in track would put us in the heavy stuff.  Biggest snowstorms I have seen were never predicted.  

I think we are past the days of sneak Big Dog storms, but I'd also be surprised if this system is done with surprises before it even starts. I think (hope) all of SEMI will do well with some kind of NAM-like solution. 

[jaster220]

Has yesterday's date, but says "First issuance with the Watch" so I think it is current thinking. 

 

[Niko]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hvy snow expanded into Wed Night. Would think a Watch is coming..

I have the same forecast bud!!!! WSW looks likely by the 4AM package for my area. There is also a chance I could be in a WWA, all depending on the track.

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Niko said:

I have the same forecast bud!!!! WSW looks likely by the 4AM package for my area. There is also a chance I could be in a WWA, all depending on the track.

Will be interesting to see which model camp wins out. The further NW, or the steady SE. Won't know until game-time IMHO. Stay-tuned ofc. Funny how a storm for us and @Clinton is the only poster west of Chicago that even follows along and "likes" a post. All those WI/MN/IA/SD/NE/KS dudes ignore. 

[Stacsh]

I’ll take 2” and be happy.  I think 3-4” high end total here if it bumps 30 miles NNW.  

[Stacsh]

17 minutes ago, Niko said:

I have the same forecast bud!!!! WSW looks likely by the 4AM package for my area. There is also a chance I could be in a WWA, all depending on the track.

not sure criteria over there but 4-8” would be a WSW I would think.  Probably not on the west side though with our office.  

[Stacsh]

36 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think we are past the days of sneak Big Dog storms, but I'd also be surprised if this system is done with surprises before it even starts. I think (hope) all of SEMI will do well with some kind of NAM-like solution. 

Yep.   Back in the 90’s I’d be in a winter storm warning because of  uncertainty in track and intensity.   As bad as the models can be (maybe there are too many?), accuracy is still much better come 24-36 hours than it use to be.  I remember being in WSW all the way to near the end of events when it was clear there wasn’t a possibility of accumulating snow.  Sleet/rain etc.   

[Niko]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Will be interesting to see which model camp wins out. The further NW, or the steady SE. Won't know until game-time IMHO. Stay-tuned ofc. Funny how a storm for us and @Clinton is the only poster west of Chicago that even follows along and "likes" a post. All those WI/MN/IA/SD/NE/KS dudes ignore. 

I am very curious to see how this storm plays out amigo. I am hoping for a slight NW track, so I can be put in that beautiful headline that you are in, otherwise, I'll be in that WWA. Btw: Congrats on ur headline!!!!

 

[Clinton]

39 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think we are past the days of sneak Big Dog storms, but I'd also be surprised if this system is done with surprises before it even starts. I think (hope) all of SEMI will do well with some kind of NAM-like solution. 

The NAM hasn't flinched, if I can pull 3-4 maybe 5 out of this I will be thrilled.  Especially with what's coming down the road.

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

not sure criteria over there but 4-8” would be a WSW I would think.  Probably not on the west side though with our office.  

It will be a close call for my area, meanwhile, my grid calls for "Heavy Snow." So, who knows, we will see what headline goes up for me. Looking like a fun storm.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

It will be a close call for my area, meanwhile, my grid calls for "Heavy Snow." So, who knows, we will see what headline goes up for me. Looking like a fun storm.

It should be a nice storm for ya no matter which headline you get.  I kinda like the stickier snows just makes for some beautiful scenery. 

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It should be a nice storm for ya no matter which headline you get.  I kinda like the stickier snows just makes for some beautiful scenery. 

This is one of my favorite parts about a winter system not knowing how it will impact ur area. Suddenly, you see the outcome and you get surprised by it, whether good or bad. I luv that anxiety about winterstorms.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Yep.   Back in the 90’s I’d be in a winter storm warning because of  uncertainty in track and intensity.   As bad as the models can be (maybe there are too many?), accuracy is still much better come 24-36 hours than it use to be.  I remember being in WSW all the way to near the end of events when it was clear there wasn’t a possibility of accumulating snow.  Sleet/rain etc.   

Surprisingly, just 2 or 3 winters ago the NWS had that mega-bust and GRR led the way. It wasn't a Warning for snow as much as ice, which failed to materialize. Some offices felt bad enough to publish an explanation graphic as to what went wrong. I don't think GRR did that tho. 

[Clinton]

The SREF Mean map is at 10:1 and ratios will likely be less than that for my area but this is a nice extension to the northwestern edge of the heavy snow.  Even brings 6 inch totals to mby.

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It should be a nice storm for ya no matter which headline you get.  I kinda like the stickier snows just makes for some beautiful scenery. 

Unlike yesterday's straight down snow, there will be some breezy-ness this go 'round. May be some plastering of trees, but I don't expect the picture card images we got yesterday here. Even after work, the snow was sitting pretty on all the pines. Best wintry day since last winter. Btw, wrt the NAM you are our canary in the coal mine. 

[Tom]

Just now, Clinton said:

The SREF Mean map is at 10:1 and ratios will likely be less than that for my area but this is a nice extension to the northwestern edge of the heavy snow.  Even brings 6 inch totals to mby.

The local Mets up here are saying the LEHS will be a wild card given the marginal temps.  Hoping for 3” but anything less would be a disappointment.  Good luck down there and rooting for the NAM to score another coupe.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

The SREF Mean map is at 10:1 and ratios will likely be less than that for my area but this is a nice extension to the northwestern edge of the heavy snow.  Even brings 6 inch totals to mby.

Weak sauce up here. Wonder if it's the x-fer, or other model divergence, or what is the cause? Ohio robbing our moisture most likely problem.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

The local Mets up here are saying the LEHS will be a wild card given the marginal temps.  Hoping for 3” but anything less would be a disappointment.  Good luck down there and rooting for the NAM to score another coupe.

Thanks!  Hope you do well gotta like the trends of late.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Weak sauce up here. Wonder if it's the x-fer, or other model divergence, or what is the cause? Ohio robbing our moisture most likely problem.

I went back and looked and your amounts are on the rise from the previous run.  Most likely it will continue to rise as you get near the event.

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I went back and looked and your amounts are on the rise from the previous run.  Most likely it will continue to rise as you get near the event.

Oh, alrighty then. I nvr followed or used the SREF's. Is that the MEAN of all models, or just members of the GFS? From seeing others post them in graphical form they do seem to lag the regular Operational models. Thx for sharing

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Oh, alrighty then. I nvr followed or used the SREF's. Is that the MEAN of all models, or just members of the GFS? From seeing others post them in graphical form they do seem to lag the regular Operational models. Thx for sharing

I'm not real sure how the SREF Mean is done maybe someone on here knows.

[Niko]

[jaster220]

@Stacsh

WPC fresh update has snow all the way up to your place by 7 am Wednesday morning. 

 

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Will be interesting to see which model camp wins out. The further NW, or the steady SE. Won't know until game-time IMHO. Stay-tuned ofc. Funny how a storm for us and @Clinton is the only poster west of Chicago that even follows along and "likes" a post. All those WI/MN/IA/SD/NE/KS dudes ignore. 

I follow everything.  In this case, it's not my storm (maybe some light accum), so I mostly just sit back and let the Oklahoma to Michigan posters take over.  Of course, many storms won't hit me.  I'm always excited for whoever it does hit.  As the storm amps up over the next couple days, I'll have multiple radar loops going and I'll be reading all the forum posts.  I never ignore posts.  Reading them is part of my daily routine.  I'm always here.

I've been busy today, so I'm just now trying to quickly catch up with all the posts and haven't been clicking "like" as I might typically.

[jaster220]

Nice afd update out of SWOH. For up north, this is "meh" system but for down there it's a "very complex" system. I remember some killer front-end thumps back in the 80's when these S Stream systems were more common. Only last about 3-4 hrs but it is rip-city during that time. 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Update.... Have expanded the Winter Storm watch southward this evening to include the Cincinnati metro forecast area/SE Indiana/ Northern KY. Strong frontogenetic forcing signal and the potential for rates of snow/sleet of />1" hour arriving right before and during the morning commute could produce major travel impacts Wednesday morning. Also, ensemble solutions showing good probabilities for greater than 3 inches of snow acrs southeast Indiana and the northern suburbs of Cincinnati. Although some locations in the watch may not meet warning criteria, the potential for a treacherous morning commute due to the rates and timing warranted the expansions of the winter storm watch. AR Previous discussion... Quiet weather during the day Tuesday as strong shortwave trough digs through the base of the longer wave trough to the west and begins to rapidly eject out into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. Surface low to slowly deepen as the wave moves through the Ohio Valley. Primary concern is the development of an WNW-ESE oriented band of heavy precipitation on Tuesday night after midnight moving quickly northeast across the forecast area through Wednesday morning. This is on the nose of strong low level jet, with accompanied very strong frontogenetical response and lateral banding. Forecast soundings suggest that despite tremendous low level warm advection, that this will be offset by the degree of vertical motion. Dynamic cooling of arriving warm nose seems to suggest a 3-5 hour period of heavy snow is likely to cross much of the forecast area centered on the morning commute. This is concerning for travel/impacts. This signal right now seems most centered on southwest Ohio/southeast Indiana, but there is a trend to involving more of Kentucky with successive receipt of ensemble and deterministic runs. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch collaboratively southward with this forecast cycle, but starting to feel strongly with late arriving ensemble information this afternoon that more expansion - and significantly so - is perhaps needed. While there is some concern with warm nose walking right up to the 0C line in forecast soundings that overall warm advection becomes so strong that sleet/mix may dominate in northern Kentucky which would greatly limit totals, but regardless, this would still make for a treacherous morning commute so further shifts will need to consider an expansion of the watch south into more of the Ohio River area if ensemble trends hold. This is much less about criteria - and much more about heavy />1" hour/ rates of snow/sleet arriving right before and during the morning commute for a large portion of the forecast area. So not only do we have some uncertainty about the magnitude of the warm advection and how this impacts rates/amounts in this warm advection band, but there is uncertainty on the path of the low moving through the forecast area. A track up the west side of the forecast area would mean a faster transition to rain and warming boundary layer from south to north on Wednesday, while a track across southern Ohio would slow this warming and delay improvement especially along/west of I-71. A very complex storm and forecast adjustments to snow totals and watch / warning alignments should be expected. With the main deformation/comma head snows remaining /mostly/ west of the forecast area (west central Ohio and southeast Indiana will get in on some of this), the primary concern with this system for our forecast area is centered on this band of heavy precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially as it relates to impacts surrounding the morning commute.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[Stacsh]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Stacsh

WPC fresh update has snow all the way up to your place by 7 am Wednesday morning. 

 

close to a pretty good  track for my backyard but for some reason the snow bands don’t extend that far out from the lp on the models.  Will be interesting.  I feel like broad storms like this will have surprises and I wouldn’t be surprised if I outperform the 2” forecasted.  

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The SREF Mean map is at 10:1 and ratios will likely be less than that for my area but this is a nice extension to the northwestern edge of the heavy snow.  Even brings 6 inch totals to mby.

That would be a nice surprise!

[WinterSquall23]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

It's official

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
350 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

MIZ076-082-083-240900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
350 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The onset of snow appears as if it will
  come mainly after the morning commute so the biggest travel
  impacts will occur as conditions deteriorate steadily from late
  morning into the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

NW metro getting in on the action. 

[jaster220]

35 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

NW metro getting in on the action. 

Funny, I don't consider Milford the "metro" but I guess it kind of is now 32 yrs after I moved out of SEMI the first time

[Black Hole]

Still some uncertainty amongst the model guidance. For example the latest 18z EPS there are still members with no snow here. But also the 18z GEFS had a few ensemble members as high as 19". I guess that's the way it goes, you never really know for sure the way these things will go and that is what makes it fun!
 

I won't be able to post in real time as much as I'd like since I will be stuck in the NWS Tulsa office tomorrow afternoon, but I will try and sneak in some updates now and again for those interested in what is going on here. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

close to a pretty good  track for my backyard but for some reason the snow bands don’t extend that far out from the lp on the models.  Will be interesting.  I feel like broad storms like this will have surprises and I wouldn’t be surprised if I outperform the 2” forecasted.  

Watching the offices along the southern edge of the headlines and how they are increasing the "changing to rain" wording tells me they see this riding a bit north of where we started a couple days ago. If the NAM's correct, much more of SMI could do well. GRR and IWX both acknowledge that potential. 

[Black Hole]

As for a night before forecast, I think the 10th-90th percentile forecast is probably like 1-7", but a best guess of 3-5" for my house seems reasonable.

Lots of high-res guidance showing 6-12", but I do think the warm ground temperatures and pre-storm airmass will take some time to overcome. Snow ratios probably climb towards 10-1 as moisture is finally wrapping up at the end. 

[Black Hole]

But who knows, adjusting the SLR for the craziest GEFS member and maybe we get a foot of snow. I'd sure love to see it!

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Black Hole said:

As for a night before forecast, I think the 10th-90th percentile forecast is probably like 1-7", but a best guess of 3-5" for my house seems reasonable.

Lots of high-res guidance showing 6-12", but I do think the warm ground temperatures and pre-storm airmass will take some time to overcome. Snow ratios probably climb towards 10-1 as moisture is finally wrapping up at the end. 

It's like a Nov storm for us up here. I remember SR models insisting on 8-12" for me during the 11-26-18 storm. Ended up raining a lot longer before the flip. Got 4". Kind of surprised at how warm it will be tomorrow down there and still getting a storm. It isn't even below freezing for the past few nights is it?

[jaster220]

Storm in cycle 1

 

[jaster220]

Love how the NAM lingers the SLP just east of here. CLE mentions the "drifting east" of the SLP as it occludes and x-fers

 

[OKwx2k4]

30 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

As for a night before forecast, I think the 10th-90th percentile forecast is probably like 1-7", but a best guess of 3-5" for my house seems reasonable.

Lots of high-res guidance showing 6-12", but I do think the warm ground temperatures and pre-storm airmass will take some time to overcome. Snow ratios probably climb towards 10-1 as moisture is finally wrapping up at the end. 

I would agree very well with this.