1/24 - 1/26 TX Panhandle Cutter

[Andie]

DFW is at a relative warm 44* with light rain.  

We’re on the edge of the freezing stuff.  Will see 32 tonight but the rain will likely have stopped. 

We missed this one but winter isn’t over.  Californians can’t drive on ice and snow anyway and we have plenty of those here.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You're slipping there bro. The Feb 2021 storm had the entire state of IN with 8-12" maps. Coverage of that was even larger iirc, and the end of Jan '21 storm that nailed Chicago also covered the N half of Indiana into WOH with a very solid storm on the order of this one. What strikes me is how weak the output is with this GOMEX Low. I'd expect to see the entire swath about 5-6" deeper across the board.

I was making the point of not only including the MW but the S Plains in this storm scenario.

[MIKEKC]

This storm would be so much easier if we had cold air in place. The snow amounts would be much more impressive....

Here in KC, the new data has trended down and further south and east. We're still in it, should look quite wintry tomorrow morning. Hey, I'll take a snowy morning where ever I can get it. 

Good luck to everyone!!

 

[Jayhawker85]

8 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

This storm would be so much easier if we had cold air in place. The snow amounts would be much more impressive....

Here in KC, the new data has trended down and further south and east. We're still in it, should look quite wintry tomorrow morning. Hey, I'll take a snowy morning where ever I can get it. 

Good luck to everyone!!

 

I guess i shouldn’t be too upset with the last minute shift SE since this was never “KC’s” storm but hopefully we can pull out 1-2 inches tonight 

[MIKEKC]

7 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I guess i shouldn’t be too upset with the last minute shift SE since this was never “KC’s” storm but hopefully we can pull out 1-2 inches tonight 

Yep, I think we can score a nice winter scene by morning. On another subject, what the hell is going on with our Jayhawks? I can't remember the last time we lost 3 in a row!!!

[winterfreak]

NAM finally came to its senses. Dusting - 1” would be my call. KC classic.

[bud2380]

Almost every model is now showing about 2" for the Iowa City area.  Looks like perhaps a partial phasing with that northern stream system is what is pulling some moisture back into IL and Eastern Iowa.  It won't be much, but it's something.  

 

[Jayhawker85]

35 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Yep, I think we can score a nice winter scene by morning. On another subject, what the hell is going on with our Jayhawks? I can't remember the last time we lost 3 in a row!!!

I have no idea what’s going on with them sigh!! This is going to be a long month coming up with March madness approaching if they don’t get it together. As long as the chiefs make the Super Bowl I’m happy lol

[bud2380]

5 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I have no idea what’s going on with them sigh!! This is going to be a long month coming up with March madness approaching if they don’t get it together. As long as the chiefs make the Super Bowl I’m happy lol

Everyone feels very sorry for Kansas losing 3 in a row... LOL.  Defending national champs...  Won the Big 12 like 19 of 20 years.  How awful it must be to be a Jayhawk fan.  

If you want misery, be a Hawkeye fan.  Haven't won a regular season Big Ten title since 1979 (I wasn't even born) and haven't gone to the Sweet 16 since 1999.  Then we show flashes of greatness (like last year) only to fall flat on our face.  

[mlgamer]

The NE Kansas Weather Rule is storms that are north trend further north and storms that are south trend further south. Call it settled science if you will...lol.

Hope those in the path score big! I'm out...can't get excited about yet another 0-1 incher.

[ATW]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

If we can average 10:1 ratios which EAX indicated it's a little bump in accumulations for mby.

 

If only the temps were a bit colder. I’m curious to see which model scores the victory. 

[Black Hole]

Last minute model trends keeping heaviest stuff south of the Tulsa area now, with some as little as an inch or so here. Others still keep us in the gradient with 3-6". I'll stick with my 2-5" forecast, but this may end up busting here. Just a little to the south they will get slammed. 

[Iceresistance]

The ground outside is slowly turning white

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Last minute model trends keeping heaviest stuff south of the Tulsa area now, with some as little as an inch or so here. Others still keep us in the gradient with 3-6". I'll stick with my 2-5" forecast, but this may end up busting here. Just a little to the south they will get slammed. 

It's a massive precip shield, but look how far Tulsa is from the SLP

[jaster220]

DTX has waffled on the snow intensity for tomorrow night. I see they are back to the +SN idea again.

 

[Niko]

Just now, jaster220 said:

DTX has waffled on the snow intensity for tomorrow night. I see they are back to the +SN idea again.

 

I just saw that too. Mine is the same amigo as well.

[jaster220]

Spread the wealth. @tStacsh with a headline

 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

I just saw that too. Mine is the same amigo as well.

I think they liked the 6z Euro. 12z NAM also has a nice looking burst mid-afternoon for us. Should be #funtimes amigo

[Niko]

Just now, jaster220 said:

I think they liked the 6z Euro. 12z NAM also has a nice looking burst mid-afternoon for us. Should be #funtimes amigo

You bet. Also, I am now starting to see a very thin layer of high clouds starting to move in.

[tStacsh]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Spread the wealth. @tStacsh with a headline

 

A few inches will at least make it look like winter out.  (I'm still thinking we end up with at least 3" here in GR)   Not complaining.  With the cold shots coming and some systems, our side of Michigan will look like winter for the next couple weeks with Lake Michigan wide open.     Hope you guys can score 5-6" or even more out of this.  

[jaster220]

The Update is, well, the Update LOL

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

We will be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory momentarily from
500am to 1000pm on Wednesday. The will include the southern row of
counties along I-94, the next row of counties to the north
from Allegan over to Ingham and the next row from Kent east
through Clinton. At this time we feel the heaviest snow will occur
in the southeast section of our forecast area including
Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Jackson, Eaton Rapids and Lansing. 3-6
inches of snow is likely in this southeast group. In the remaining
counties we are expecting 2-5 inches of new snow. The morning
commute will be impacted along I-94 as the snow moves in between
500am and 600am. All areas in the advisory will see impacts during
the afternoon/evening commute. Kent County is on the fringe of
needing to be included, but we feel enough snow will occur in the
several hours (noon-300pm) leading into the evening commute that
impacts will push conditions into the Advisory category there.

As for the details, the models have been fairly steady state now
for several runs tracking the low to the northeast through the
state of Ohio. The low center Wednesday evening at 00z is in the
vicinity of Cleveland which is generally not a good location (a
bit too far to the east) to give the GRR cwa warning level snow.
The ECWMF actually tracks the low to the east of Cleveland. BUFKIT
overviews at JXN are fairly impressive with fairly strong lift
through a deep layer, including into and through the DGZ. We
should see snow rates towards or exceeding 1 inch per hour during
the day on Wednesday. Most significant impacts will be to travel,
especially given the fact that much of the area has not see
appreciable snow in weeks.

&&

[Niko]

4 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

Good stuff.  That should be a headline.  

Yes..tell that to NOAA!! Matter of time I guess. It will either be a WWA or WSW, even though, my forecast is calling for heavy snow tomorrow and part of tomorrow nite w/ 5-7"+.

[jaster220]

I could be fine with this

 

[jaster220]

25 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

A few inches will at least make it look like winter out.  (I'm still thinking we end up with at least 3" here in GR)   Not complaining.  With the cold shots coming and some systems, our side of Michigan will look like winter for the next couple weeks with Lake Michigan wide open.     Hope you guys can score 5-6" or even more out of this.  

I think it will be the first time this season the entire state has a real blanket of white. Plus temps stay wintry

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I could be fine with this

 

6"+ I'd say is a good call for our region.

[bud2380]

Euro isn't running yet.  Should have started 20 minutes ago. 

[Iceresistance]

Everything is snow covered

[tStacsh]

HRR has bumped north and Detroit does well.  Takes the low closer to Cleveland where the Euro is East of Cleveland.

 

[tStacsh]

Can't help but think what this storm really could have been with colder air for points north of center of projected path.  I think the southern end of the predicted swath of heavier snows will struggle with a sloppy mess.  

[ATW]

4 hours ago, winterfreak said:

NAM finally came to its senses. Dusting - 1” would be my call. KC classic.

We’ll, I think it’s safe to say this is not mid Missouri’s storm either. More models than not now only have around 2” here. 

[tStacsh]

Euro servers went down, so no 12z run at this time. 

[jaster220]

(SIGH)..we finally get a sunny day (along with an extra 8 or more degs warming) the day leading into a storm when we don't need it.

[tStacsh]

Nam seems better and more expanded snowfield on the NW flank.  

 

 

[jaster220]

20 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Can't help but think what this storm really could have been with colder air for points north of center of projected path.  I think the southern end of the predicted swath of heavier snows will struggle with a sloppy mess.  

Yep. For comparisons, the 2/24/16 GOMEX storm with cold air would've easily been a 15-18" Big Dog. Marshall ended with 11.6" thanks to the warm slop-fest scenario. Hoping temps get down to 32F and stay there tomorrow. By 0z we should be safely below freezing and whatever mushiness will be on it's way to solidifying.

[tStacsh]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

(SIGH)..we finally get a sunny day (along with an extra 8 or more degs warming) the day leading into a storm when we don't need it.

Thick soupy clouds here,  all winter, every day.  I'll trade ya.  

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Nam seems better and more expanded snowfield on the NW flank.  

 

 

Definitely lingers snow westward into IA & WI. Might be why some of the more robust totals to my SW aren't happening up here. Sure has a death band of front-end stuff down in S Ohio of all places. Looks like a tiny bit of that finally gets into my area in the early evening.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

Thick soupy clouds here,  all winter, every day.  I'll trade ya.  

This is the ONE day I would gladly take what GRR is getting attm

[jaster220]

32 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

HRR has bumped north and Detroit does well.  Takes the low closer to Cleveland where the Euro is East of Cleveland.

 

Liking that track. I do think that model will over-inflate a bit tho I'd love it to be correct on this one, lol

[bud2380]

3k NAM shows 2-2.5" around these parts.  Temps though hovering around or even slightly above freezing during the day tomorrow will make accumulations almost impossible during the day.

 

 

[tStacsh]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Liking that track. I do think that model will over-inflate a bit tho I'd love it to be correct on this one, lol

Oh, I don't buy the higher end totals of this storm...yet.   Not one forecaster is predicting anything outrageous.  Most still have Detroit in the 5" high end range.    Just monitoring the trends.  

 

My call is for it to outperform the 2" forecasted here.  I've seen it time and time again, NW of the forecasted snow area always seems to do better than advertised.  

[jaster220]

Ok then..

 

[FV-Mike]

LOT issuing WWA. Bumped totals a little further north. Now going with 2-4 from Dixon into the suburbs

[Tony]

1 minute ago, FV-Mike said:

LOT issuing WWA. Bumped totals a little further north. Now going with 2-4 from Dixon into the suburbs

Turning more into a long duration event. Looks to snow well in into Thursday with that northern piece coming into play now. 

[bud2380]

The Euro is finally running.

 

[Clinton]

38 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

LOT issuing WWA. Bumped totals a little further north. Now going with 2-4 from Dixon into the suburbs

18z NAM looking stronger up your way, and raised totals down my  way from the 12z.  I still think 2-4 for mby is a good guess.  Look at that cutoff just west of KC, brutal. 

 

[WinterSquall23]

6 hours ago, ATW said:

If only the temps were a bit colder. I’m curious to see which model scores the victory. 

 

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

The Update is, well, the Update LOL

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

We will be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory momentarily from
500am to 1000pm on Wednesday. The will include the southern row of
counties along I-94, the next row of counties to the north
from Allegan over to Ingham and the next row from Kent east
through Clinton. At this time we feel the heaviest snow will occur
in the southeast section of our forecast area including
Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Jackson, Eaton Rapids and Lansing. 3-6
inches of snow is likely in this southeast group. In the remaining
counties we are expecting 2-5 inches of new snow. The morning
commute will be impacted along I-94 as the snow moves in between
500am and 600am. All areas in the advisory will see impacts during
the afternoon/evening commute. Kent County is on the fringe of
needing to be included, but we feel enough snow will occur in the
several hours (noon-300pm) leading into the evening commute that
impacts will push conditions into the Advisory category there.

As for the details, the models have been fairly steady state now
for several runs tracking the low to the northeast through the
state of Ohio. The low center Wednesday evening at 00z is in the
vicinity of Cleveland which is generally not a good location (a
bit too far to the east) to give the GRR cwa warning level snow.
The ECWMF actually tracks the low to the east of Cleveland. BUFKIT
overviews at JXN are fairly impressive with fairly strong lift
through a deep layer, including into and through the DGZ. We
should see snow rates towards or exceeding 1 inch per hour during
the day on Wednesday. Most significant impacts will be to travel,
especially given the fact that much of the area has not see
appreciable snow in weeks.

&&

 

4 hours ago, Niko said:

6"+ I'd say is a good call for our region.

Have a feeling this one will be a surprise somehow. It’s got potential!  GOLU model will confirm. 

[jaster220]

The TXT

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
256 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

MIZ076-082-083-250500-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0001.230125T1200Z-230126T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.230125T1000Z-230126T0100Z/
Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
256 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 8 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow will develop around 6 am,
  however, amounts and impacts during the morning commute are
  expected to remain relatively minor. Snow will then steadily
  increase in intensity with the peak of the heaviest snowfall
  rates between 10 am and 4 pm Wednesday. Travel conditions will
  deteriorate considerably during the afternoon into the early
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

[jaster220]

50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM looking stronger up your way, and raised totals down my  way from the 12z.  I still think 2-4 for mby is a good guess.  Look at that cutoff just west of KC, brutal. 

 

NAM says "can't leave Chicago out"

[jaster220]

DTX making note of another "heat of the day" timing that's been such a theme in these last (2) winters

These rates will be sufficient to overcome the "poor" timing as the
best snow falls through the mildest middle of the daytime period
(although the 32F or so surface temperatures will still have some
impact on accumulation potential on paved surfaces). This may also
become evident downwind of Lake Erie as this is not a typical late
January event in the sense that there is little/no ice cover on the
lake and a pocket of +2C water sits in the western portion of the
lake. Although this should not have too drastic an impact, this may
cut back on accumulations just a bit near the shoreline.

[Clinton]

Latest thinking from EAX.