April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

You're correct. If the ECMWF seasonals verify we would have a warmer to hotter than normal May to the end of summer here in the PNW. Here are my main takeaways from the brand new seasonals:

 

1) April will be the end of the rainy pattern that we've seen on occasion this spring. Big shift in the weather pattern takes place late April/early May and ridging starts to develop in the PNW.

 

2) Strong signal for May to not only end up warmer than normal but to end up drier than normal as well.

 

3) No signs of any troughing in the PNW as the pattern we have seen the last few summers starts to assert itself.

 

4) The highest positive anomalies from May and beyond are located in and around the PNW.

 

5) It remains to be seen if this summer can be as hot as the last 2 but the pattern is there for it to be close.

Possible triple digits? Breaking records?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I don't believe it.

We should have a better understanding a month from now. I want to see if the EURO weeklies/seasonals are correct in the May ridging.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Possible triple digits? Breaking records?

That's too early to say. The possibilities would be higher though if the seasonals verify. It's harder for you guys up there in Seattle to get to triple digits, it takes a special type of ridge for it to occur.

[stuffradio]

Scott Sistek is the author... he is the 'Jesse' of KOMO news.    He loves rain and hates warmth.   

 

And I don't detest the weather for 10 months.    

 

But I do complain when its much more persistently wet than usual as was the case in 2015-16 and in the spring of 2017.     And that is how April 2018 is playing out as well.  

 

You never acknowledge that.  

 

He is? I have never found him obsessing about rain much. I send him messages from time to time and he usually responds.

 

[Phil]

I go to weather.us for my EURO needs. For the seasonal, specifically https://weather.us/monthly-charts

 

Here are the 500mb anomaly maps from May to October. Will post my interpretations after the Blazers game. us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018040100_1_5436_528.png us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018040100_2_5436_528.png us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018040100_3_5436_528.png us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018040100_4_5436_528.png us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018040100_5_5436_528.png us_season-en-087-0_modezseason_2018040100_6_5436_528.png

The bias-corrected monthlies look much different. For whatever reason, that model loves to over-do stagnant Pacific forcing and Atlantic subsidence during the warm season. Started with the 2015 update and has continued ever since.

[TT-SEA]

Well... the ECMWF went from showing a nice day on Saturday and then just some scattered showers on Sunday to now showing non-stop rain from Friday into Monday here.   Probably will not stop raining for even a hour.   Amazing that we have another complete washout of a weekend ahead.

 

And its all because the trough is not a deep as originally shown.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The bias-corrected monthlies look much different. For whatever reason, that model loves to over-do stagnant Pacific forcing and Atlantic subsidence during the warm season. Started with the 2015 update and has continued ever since.

I see. I only have access to the free edition. To be fair since 2015, this model probably has done a better job because we've seen record breaking heat the past few summers. The key takeaway I took from it was that the highest positive anomalies were closer to the PNW than any other area. Also that Hudson Bay low depicted from May to July is another indicator for warmer weather here in the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

Only 15-16 inches of snow in the Twin Cities this weekend.   

 

[WeatherArchive]

is there snow plows shut down yet till next fall?

[TT-SEA]

is there snow plows shut down yet till next fall?

 

 

No... I doubt they ever put the plows away.  

 

MNDOT also has live web cams on the plows covering the major highways so you can watch them in action and also see road conditions. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some wet snow falling now. 35 degrees. Another 1/3" of rain since midnight. 

[Kayla]

No... I doubt they ever put the plows away.  

 

MNDOT also has live web cams on the plows covering the major highways so you can watch them in action and also see road conditions. 

 

Come June they transition some of the plow trucks to pothole repair trucks here but I know they still keep several plow trucks on standby throughout the year as well. 

 

MDT has live cameras on their trucks as well! You all can track the incoming storm though I doubt we'll see much road accumulations until later today. http://roadreport.mdt.mt.gov/travinfomobile/

[TT-SEA]

Come June they transition some of the plow trucks to pothole repair trucks here but I know they still keep several plow trucks on standby throughout the year as well. 

 

MDT has live cameras on their trucks as well! You all can track the incoming storm though I doubt we'll see much road accumulations until later today. http://roadreport.mdt.mt.gov/travinfomobile/

 

 

Did you get down to bare ground before this storm?   I was scrolling through web cams on that site and Bozeman Pass even has open ground and wet conditions right now.

[Kayla]

Did you get down to bare ground before this storm?   I was scrolling through web cams on that site and Bozeman Pass even has open ground and wet conditions right now.

 

There are some patches of bare ground, (brown and ugly this time of year) especially in south facing areas here now. Our backyard is still pretty buried in 2 feet of snow though. We're only 300' lower than Bozeman pass so pretty similar conditions. I actually saw a few blades of green grass coming up yesterday in town! 

[MossMan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow falling now, a light dusting

[stuffradio]

Latest JAMSTEC shows above normal temps for JJA and normal precip.

[Timmy]

Nothing like a little snow to start your mid April morning!

[Deweydog]

Latest JAMSTEC shows above normal temps for JJA and normal precip.

[stuffradio]

Right!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Latest JAMSTEC shows above normal temps for JJA and normal precip.

Goes in line with what the latest ECMWF seasonals say as well.

[Jesse]

[stuffradio]

[TT-SEA]

Just took a pic of the cottonwoods leafing out here.   Still waiting for the red leaf maples in the yard.   They actually have very small leaves open now but it will be another couple days before they start appearing red from a distance.

 

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

This is how the streets of Portland will look after our fifth consecutive heatwave peaking out at 108+ (late June).

[Deweydog]

Just took a pic of the cottonwoods leafing out here. Still waiting for the red leaf maples in the yard. They actually have very small leaves open now but it will be another couple days before they start appearing red from a distance.

 

Holy ! It's spring!

 

Has anyone looked into this?

[TT-SEA]

Holy s**t! It's spring!

 

Has anyone looked into this?

 

You know I like to track seasonal changes Matthew.   

 

We are behind schedule this year.   Probably means it will be another good year for fall color... like last year.

[stuffradio]

This is how the streets of Portland will look after our fifth consecutive heatwave peaking out at 108+ (late June).

I will mourn in their honour.

[Jesse]

You know I like to track seasonal changes Matthew.

 

We are behind schedule this year. Probably means it will be another good year for fall color... like last year.

There is a nice blooming cherry tree by the Chik-Fil-A that Matt likes to track during his daily pilgrimage.

[TT-SEA]

Also... I just noticed there is some snow up on the ridge.    If you zoom in behind the cottonwoods in that picture you can see the snow on the trees right below the low clouds.  

[Deweydog]

There is a nice blooming cherry tree by the Chik-Fil-A that Matt likes to track during his daily pilgrimage.

They're closed on Sundays, doofus.

[Front Ranger]

Well... the ECMWF went from showing a nice day on Saturday and then just some scattered showers on Sunday to now showing non-stop rain from Friday into Monday here.   Probably will not stop raining for even a hour.   Amazing that we have another complete washout of a weekend ahead.

 

And its all because the trough is not a deep as originally shown.  

 

Every weekend in March had at least one completely dry day at SEA. Two weekends were totally dry.

 

Things even out.

[stuffradio]

YVR is currently at 9th overall for longest rain streak in April.

[Jesse]

They're closed on Sundays, doofus.

That’s why you always pick up two orders on Saturday.

[Jesse]

YVR is currently at 9th overall for longest rain streak in April.

Bring out youour dead!

[Deweydog]

That’s why you always pick up two orders on Saturday.

I imagine that stuff doesn't keep well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't really pay much attention to seasonal forecasts. Yes, I know I am known to post seasonal CFSv2 forecasts. I do not post those seriously.

[Jesse]

I don't really pay much attention to seasonal forecasts. Yes, I know I am known to post seasonal CFSv2 forecasts. I do not post those seriously.

We haven’t had any updates lately!

[TT-SEA]

Every weekend in March had at least one completely dry day at SEA. Two weekends were totally dry.

 

Things even out.

 

Well... each weekend day in April has been seriously wet.    The last two Sundays have been straight up miserable with non-stop heavy rain and wind here.   And now this weekend will be a washout.     Terrible timing in April... just when you really want a nice weekend day.