June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

This is completely false. In this climate... cheering for dry and sunny means that almost nothing will go your way. Particularly up here. That is why I appreciate it so much when it works out.

 

I will say that making reservations in eastern WA when a weekend or holiday starts looking nasty seems to be the best guarantee for model improvements. If we cancel for next week on Monday... that will be 5 times in a row that it improved so much that it was not worth it to leave town and we decided to cancel. I hate leaving town when its nice here.

Five times in a row where you’ve been able to cancel and stay here. Sounds like things have been gong your way a lot.

[TT-SEA]

Five times in a row where you’ve been able to cancel and stay here. Sounds like things have been gong your way a lot.

Yeah... that streak is since last May.

 

It's the only thing that seems to work!

 

Otherwise it never goes my way in terms of sun and dry weather.

[Jesse]

The gutting of this troughy period is further illustration of our climate’s inability to get significant cool troughing between 6/15 and 9/15 anymore.

 

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see another July/August completely devoid of highs in the 60s at PDX, which had been unprecedented up until the last few years.

[The Swamp]

Jesse, if it is any consolation, the Seattle AFD is still in your camp with troughing all the way through the 4th of July.

[Jesse]

Yeah... that streak is since last May.

 

It's the only thing that seems to work!

 

Otherwise it never goes my way in terms of sun and dry weather.

If only it could start not raining here for 80% of the year. Dream big! Once we get there that final 20% won’t be hard to knock out either.

[Timmy]

The next few days are supposed to be not that hot, I wish it were warmer out.

[TT-SEA]

The next few days are supposed to be not that hot, I wish it were warmer out.

 

At least you have sunshine.   Another dark and cloudy morning here and the clouds will be streaming in all day but never making it down there.    I would love to have your weather.  

 

[Farmboy]

The gutting of this troughy period is further proof of our climate’s inability to get significant cool troughing between 6/15 and 9/15 anymore.

 

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see another July/August completely devoid of highs in the 60s at PDX, which had been unprecedented up until the last few years.

 

 

Seeing as how PDX's average high is 80 or better from July 17 thru August 24, isn't 60's kind of a tall order?

[ShawniganLake]

Seeing as how PDX's average high is 80 or better from July 17 thru August 24, isn't 60's kind of a tall order?

Shouldn’t be any tougher than 100’s

[TT-SEA]

Seeing as how PDX's average high is 80 or better from July 17 thru August 24, isn't 60's kind of a tall order?

 

 

Just like us expecting some days in the 80s in the summer even though our average is in the 70s.

 

Accordingly to Phil... we should never see 80 degrees here or expect it when our average tops out at 78.   I guess there is no offset to all these days in the 60s.  

[Farmboy]

Shouldn’t be any tougher than 100’s

 

 

100's should actually be harder to achieve than upper 60's...

[Jesse]

Seeing as how PDX's average high is 80 or better from July 17 thru August 24, isn't 60's kind of a tall order?

Didn’t used to be. We probably averaged 2-3 days in the 60s for each month historically. It is lately though.

[MossMan]

Another cloudy and chilly morning!

[Farmboy]

Just like us expecting some days in the 80s in the summer even though our average is in the 70s.

 

Accordingly to Phil... we should never see 80 degrees here or expect it when our average tops out at 78.   I guess there is no offset to all these days in the 60s.  

 

 

If Phil and Jesse had their way we'd be offsetting our days in the 60's with days in the 50's with drizzle.  

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Blizzard777]

Beautiful blue skies on the west side of Portland this morning

Looks like another pool day for my grandson

Back home looks like morning clouds on my nest cams

[Jesse]

If Phil and Jesse had their way we'd be offsetting our days in the 60's with days in the 50's with drizzle.

Yeah, no.

[Kayla]

46F and raining here with 0.80" already on the day. Could be worse Tim!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You know, part of me hopes this death ridge is as brutal as possible, that way any heat in Seattle will feel cool and refreshing by comparison.

 

And the pattern will inevitably flip when forcing returns to the dateline..probably the third week of July. But there are other lower frequency preconditioners that have been putting the kibosh on any prolonged western ridging.

 

This doesn’t seem to be the summer for western ridging as a background state.

By that time we are headed towards the warmest weather based on climatology here in the PNW. So very doubtful we see any major troughing or any troughing for that matter during the end of July into early August.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Cautiously optimistic for the 4th based on the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

Nothing like a 90 degree day cooking BBQ and lighting up some fireworks!

[Deweydog]

Delightful morning.

[Phil]

Jesse, if it is any consolation, the Seattle AFD is still in your camp with troughing all the way through the 4th of July.

So is the EPS. And the EPS > everything else in this type of pattern.

[Phil]

At least you have sunshine. Another dark and cloudy morning here and the clouds will be streaming in all day but never making it down there. I would love to have your weather.

 

And I would love to have your weather. But we can’t always get what we want.

[TT-SEA]

4th of July per 12Z GFS... 

 

 

[Jesse]

4th of July per 12Z GFS...

 

 

Looks troughy!!

[Phil]

By that time we are headed towards the warmest weather based on climatology here in the PNW. So very doubtful we see any major troughing or any troughing for that matter during the end of July into early August.

Just because it’s your warmest time of year doesn’t mean there won’t be troughing. It can happen at any time of year..the results would just be warmer then.

 

And I still can’t find any reason(s) to expect sustained western ridging. At least not until something changes w/ this particular mode of axisymmetric tropical forcing.

 

The -QBO has made a huge difference this year, even with the +ENSO. The equatorward trending anticyclones have kept the pattern moving.

[Deweydog]

So is the EPS. And the EPS > everything else in this type of pattern.

If it's not troughy enough for a region-wide, unpleasant Fourth of July what's the point???

[Jesse]

If it's not troughy enough for a region-wide, unpleasant Fourth of July what's the point???

A soaking rainfall would be nice, Tim. I don’t care what day it happens.

[Phil]

4th of July per 12Z GFS...

 

 

Aren’t those GFS surface temperatures supposed to be wonky? #doublestandard

[Deweydog]

A soaking rainfall would be nice, Tim. I don’t care what day it happens.

Not likely. Prepare yourself.

[Phil]

If Phil and Jesse had their way we'd be offsetting our days in the 60's with days in the 50's with drizzle.

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

I’m actually getting excited about the prospects for a large GOA/BC trough in late July, when I’m fishing off the coast of Hippa Island. I think the chances are increasing.

 

I won’t be happy unless winds hit hurricane force.

[Deweydog]

That is just an incredible swath of mid 590's heights for early July.

[TT-SEA]

Aren’t those GFS surface temperatures supposed to be wonky? #doublestandard

 

 

They are... you have to take them with a grain of salt but its all we have from the GFS.

 

I use it just to tell if it will be warm or cool.

 

The 12Z GFS shows a warm day on the 4th of July... that is all I am looking for.   If I want more precise temperatures then I will look to the ECMWF surface maps and probably add 2-4 degrees.  

[Jesse]

Not likely. Prepare yourself.

Way ahead of ya. I’ve been watering almost nonstop the last several weeks so my lawn can stay nice and green.

 

#keepingmyprioritiesstraight

[Phil]

That is just an incredible swath of mid 590's heights for early July.

I’m scurrrred.

[Jesse]

That is just an incredible swath of mid 590's heights for early July.

#retractinghadelycells

[Phil]

#retractinghadelycells

This summer has been a huge improvement over the last several. At least for you.

 

Fitting the anticipated back-and-forth theme, averaging near normal in the long run.

[Jesse]

This summer has been a huge improvement over the last several. At least for you.

 

Fitting the anticipated back-and-forth theme, averaging near normal in the long run.

Eh, when the area of heat over North America is that vast there almost has to be a 500mb slot somewhere, by default.

[Deweydog]

This summer has been a huge improvement over the last several. At least for you.

 

Fitting the anticipated back-and-forth theme, averaging near normal in the long run.

Hard to call this a huge improvement two years after we were on the doorstep of our coldest first ten days of July by about three touchdowns.

[Phil]

I remember when Tim was attacking me for using analogs like 2012 to describe the pattern evolution for M/J/J.

 

If you get the tropics correct, QBO is an amazing forecasting tool. But if you get the tropics wrong, in any way, then you’re screwed. IE: me last year.

[Phil]

Eh, when the area of heat over North America is that vast there almost has to be a 500mb slot somewhere, by default.

But that’s the kind of pattern you guys need for cool weather up there during the warm season under the boundary conditions of +ENSO/-QBO & +PMM/cold IO.

 

We’re not in the 1960s anymore..coast-to-coast cool summers like those won’t happen for another decade at least. And the ones that come close will be warm along the immediate west coast.

 

The West-Pacific warm pool and Hadley Cell have a lot more shrinking to do before we return to something like the 1960s/70s. But 2008/10/11/12 type summers are still possible under today’s low frequency circulation.