June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

#fakenews

[Phil]

As been pointed out... its been quite wet recently in the same area. Wavering c-zones, thunderstorms, hours of drizzle. Its not dry... even if June is below normal.

Nope. The last two months gave been drier than normal..even in your area.

 

Stop complaining over a non-existent problem.

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and pleasant on the 4th of July per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

 

[Phil]

Chilly 4th of July for Tim?

 

[TT-SEA]

Nope. The last two months gave been drier than normal..even in your area.

 

Stop complaining over a non-existent problem.

 

I was not referring to the last 8 weeks.

 

Things were drying out here at the start of June... now its all lush green again. Its not dry.

 

And this is in response to the 'crippling drought' type comments. I did not even say its been unusually wet. But its definitely been wet and there are no drought concerns here or anyone even talking about drought. And for good reason. Its not an issue at all.

[Phil]

Sunny and pleasant on the 4th of July per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

 

I see blue!

 

[TT-SEA]

Chilly 4th of July for Tim?

 

 

 

Trolling!  

 

Mid to upper 70s and sunny per the ECMWF.   

 

 

 

And even the 00Z GFS is sunny and pleasant on the 4th of July... you are blending in the night before for dramatic effect.   

 

 

 

[Phil]

I think its going to get hot starting on July 5th... this will re-energize the "summer starts on July 5th" joke around here given that it will not be real summery between now and then.

The heat doesn’t look prolonged, though. Just your typical pattern of retrograding anticyclones pinwheeling in and departing after 4-5 days.

 

The worst of the heat should also be focused to your east, over the Rockies and Plains.

[TT-SEA]

I see blue!

 

 

 

I don't live at the 850mb level.  

 

Its sunny and pleasant at the surface on the 00Z ECMWF thanks to northerly flow and drier air.   

 

Actually... the 00Z ECMWF is just about perfect for the 4th of July.   It really does not get better.   And then its even warmer on the 5th and we are likely going to be on Lake Washington that day.

 

 

I say there is a 90% chance now that we are cancelling our reservations on the warm side of the state for July 4-6.   Its probably going to be spectacular here!  

[Phil]

Trolling!

 

Mid to upper 70s and sunny per the ECMWF.

 

 

 

And even the 00Z GFS is sunny and pleasant on the 4th of July... you are blending in the night before for dramatic effect.

 

 

Hopefully it trends colder..60s > 70s. You’d love it.

[Phil]

I don't live at the 850mb level.

No party at Dewey’s house, then?

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully it trends colder..60s > 70s. You’d love it.

 

You are trying too hard to troll tonight. Its not clever or accurate.

[Kayla]

Sunny and pleasant on the 4th of July per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Had been looking like we would be dry out here for the 4th as well but now not so much...

[Farmboy]

The heat doesn’t look prolonged, though. Just your typical pattern of retrograding anticyclones pinwheeling in and departing after 4-5 days.

 

The worst of the heat should also be focused to your east, over the Rockies and Plains.

 

 

Let me guess, you'll soon be predicting a huge trough to descend on the PNW for the second half of July...

[Kayla]

Tim is not gonna like this...

 

I've read that the ICON is now the second highest rated model in the industry behind the ECMWF of course so it is becoming another great forecasting tool.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Tim is not gonna like this...

 

I've read that the ICON is now the second highest rated model in the industry behind the ECMWF of course so it is becoming another great forecasting tool.

 

Good thing I will be in Springfield on the 4th.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is not gonna like this...

 

I've read that the ICON is now the second highest rated model in the industry behind the ECMWF of course so it is becoming another great forecasting tool.

 

Model trends are bad this morning. Second ULL has become an issue.

 

Lucky we have not cancelled reservations!

[Geos]

The anomalously wet area for 2018 is the same area that is still wet and about to get much wetter...

 

 

 

 

We might have to build a wall to keep the drought folks from overrunning our pristine lush wilderness where drought does not exist... maybe charge a fee to enter to see forests of healthy and vibrant trees and roaring rivers.     

 

That was a soaker of a run. 

[Kayla]

Model trends are bad this morning. Second ULL has become an issue.

 

Lucky we have not cancelled reservations!

 

Still a week out so not surprising. As always with a meandering ULL, it is likely going to be several more days until they get a better handle on it.

[TT-SEA]

Still a week out so not surprising. As always with a meandering ULL, it is likely going to be several more days until they get a better handle on it.

 

 

Feels like a situation now where everything trends worse as it approaches.   

[Front Ranger]

Feels like a situation now where everything trends worse as it approaches.   

 

Feels like deja vu from your model riding up to Memorial Day weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Feels like deja vu from your model riding up to Memorial Day weekend.

 

That actually was a situation where it trended better.

[Phil]

Let me guess, you'll soon be predicting a huge trough to descend on the PNW for the second half of July...

Haha, I might need a second weather manipulation device to make that happen. The Phil effect is tough to overcome. Ridges follow me.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Feels like a situation now where everything trends worse as it approaches.

This is one time where I hope it trends north unlike snow in the winter.

[TT-SEA]

This is one time where I hope it trends north unlike snow in the winter.

 

Two massive ridges battling it out... one over the Pacific and one over the middle of the country.

 

We are stuck in the middle which is default troughing.   And ULLs seemingly form out of nothing and meander around.   Messy forecasting.

[Front Ranger]

That actually was a situation where it trended better.

 

It was still very much up in the air a week out and you weren't sure which way it was trending.

 

Just last night you were feeling good about the Euro.

[MossMan]

Currently in the lovely town of Pasco...getting warm!

[TT-SEA]

It was still very much up in the air a week out and you weren't sure which way it was trending.

 

Just last night you were feeling good about the Euro.

 

Everything has trended worse since then so I am sure the 12Z ECMWF will follow.

[Farmboy]

Looks like a tree-killer express in the clown range 12zgfs...

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a tree-killer express in the clown range 12zgfs...

Seems out of season for an ice storm.

[TT-SEA]

As expected 12Z ECMWF is now a complete washout for the 4th.

 

Second ULL is to blame.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

As expected 12Z ECMWF is now a complete washout for the 4th.

 

Second ULL is to blame.

Maps?

[TT-SEA]

Maps?

On phone

[TT-SEA]

July 5th is still lovely on the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Maybe timing will move up.

[TT-SEA]

Maps?

 

 

Total rain for the 4th...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Total rain for the 4th...

 

Yikes, here's hoping it trends north indeed. Even EUG would get a solid quarter inch. And this would wipe out most fireworks north of there.

[Phil]

Looks like a tree-killer express in the clown range 12zgfs...

Historically speaking, these Plains death ridges don’t morph into west coast ridges. They rely on completely different forcings/boundary conditions, which actually oppose one another. It would require highly coincidental timing between changes peripheral forcings for such a progression to occur. It’s not impossible, though.

 

Often times, the GFS/GEFS succumbs to its excessive parameterization schemes, especially after truncation. In a neutral setting of extrapolation, the GFS/GEFS will almost always build western ridging during the warm season. It’s a heat/moisture/terrain feedback that other long range models, like the EPS weekly extrapolations. also tend to suffer from.

[Geos]

Total rain for the 4th...

 

 

Looks like you're best bet would be to stay on this side of the mountains. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like you're best bet would be to stay on this side of the mountains. 

 

 

Actually it shows 80 and sunny on the afternoon of the 4th where would be going.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like you're best bet would be to stay on this side of the mountains. 

 

 

Have to factor in timing... of course that will likely change 50 times again.

 

Here is the evening of the 4th (5-11 p.m.)... everything is shifting north through the day.    Oregon is dry and even up through Seattle.