James Jones Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 And the opposite is true in onshore flow patterns. In the end, your average maximum peaks around 75-76 for a few weeks, then starts declining again. Highs in the 80s would be several degrees above climo for you. I'm not sure you're the right guy to tell us about the nuances of PNW microclimates with such certainty. SeaTac right on the water at 430' peaks at 77 degrees, it's completely reasonable that Tim's location away from the water could peak at 77-78. Darrington for example peaks at 82 degrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Per climo the warmest day of the year at Silver Falls (1350') is July 27th 81/48. The average high is 75 or warmer here from July 4 - September 5. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 And the opposite is true in onshore flow patterns. In the end, your average maximum peaks around 75-76 for a few weeks, then starts declining again. Highs in the 80s would be several degrees above climo for you.Yeah, that's not right. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Looks like a potential retrogression window to me. And I’d be cool with this. Hopefully it trends colder and highs stay in the 60’s. 12Z ECMWF shows mid 70s for Seattle on the 19th. Of course on the water in Everett it can be in the 60s when its 85 in Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 I'm not sure you're the right guy to tell us about the nuances of PNW microclimates with such certainty. SeaTac right on the water at 430' peaks at 77 degrees, it's completely reasonable that Tim's location away from the water could peak at 77-78. Darrington for example peaks at 82 degrees.SeaTac monthly high peaks at 76 and sits in squarely in a UHI bubble at a much lower elevation. Tim is farther from the water but has less UHI/more elevation. More extremes, similar averages. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Average highs for today (July 10th): Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Silver Falls has hit 100 10X since 1938. They had 3 consecutive days of 100+ in August 1972 including the all time record high of 103. I've never really heard of that heatwave so I don't know if those numbers are reliable? It hit 99 in July 2009. Well I looked at August 1972 in Salem and if there was offshore flow then the Silver Falls #'s do make sense. SLE was 102, 104, 98 on the days Silver Falls went 100, 103, 100. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 SeaTac peaks at 76 and sits in a UHI bubble. Tim is farther from the water but has less UHI/more elevation. More extremes, similar averages. No? https://imgur.com/0iNyOKJ Very clearly peaks a bit over 77 degrees. The vast majority of the 1981-2010 averages were before the third runway was built, which is why SeaTac is beating out their 1981-2010 averages so much easier than every other location. The water makes a big difference man. I don't know why you seem to be having such a hard time wrapping your head around that. As I said, Darrington away from the water in the foothills at 48 degrees latitude peaks at 82 degrees in the summer at over 500'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 No? https://imgur.com/0iNyOKJ Very clearly peaks a bit over 77 degrees. The vast majority of the 1981-2010 averages were before the third runway was built, which is why SeaTac is beating out their 1981-2010 averages so much easier than every other location. The water makes a big difference man. I don't know why you seem to be having such a hard time wrapping your head around that. As I said, Darrington away from the water in the foothills at 48 degrees latitude peaks at 82 degrees in the summer at over 500'.1) I was referencing the peak monthly average (which I made clear in my edit). It peaks at 76..and arguing over one degree is pointless. You could probably subtract at least 2*F for UHI anyway. 2) SeaTac was a UHI bubble long before the third runway was added. The entirety of the Seattle metro area is a UHI hotspot, similar to DC. The differences in trends in the NCDC data records make that crystal clear. 3) I highly doubt Darrington gets the Marine influence that Tim’s area does. I’ll have to check the geography and the numbers on NCDC to see what’s going on there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 The 18z GFS is definitely moving in the right direction for July 18th. Nice meridional action and pseudo-retrograde of the poleward-displaced anticyclonic wavetrain. Won’t be a long lasting event, but it might hold long enough for me to safely escape to Hippa Island before positive anomalies return. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 The 18z GFS is definitely moving in the right direction for July 18th. Nice meridional action and pseudo-retrograde of the poleward-displaced anticyclonic wavetrain. Not going to be super long lasting, but might last long enough for me to safely escape to Hippa Island before positive anomalies return.Our positive anomalies would feel cold to you anyways. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 As we exhaustively discussed last summer... 1,000 feet in elevation away from the water has almost no effect on temperature in the summer and many days its warmer here than in Seattle. I do notice that you're often warmer in the summer than here. You get the chinook effect more often, as well as other communities from Enumclaw to Monroe. I'm close enough and a bit farther north to catch the cooling effect of the North Sound waters when the wind is coming out of the NW. I really can notice the difference if I travel towards Edmonds or Lynnwood. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Our positive anomalies would feel cold to you anyways.Not willing to take that risk. Go big or go home. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 I do notice that you're often warmer in the summer than here. You get the chinook effect more often, as well as other communities from Enumclaw to Monroe. I'm close enough and a bit farther north to catch the cooling effect of the North Sound waters when the wind is coming out of the NW. I really can notice the difference if I travel towards Edmonds or Lynnwood.East wind warming here is not too common in the summer... except when it's really hot. Its much more common from October through March. But we do completely miss out on the typical cooling north winds through the Sound on many summer days Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 1) I was referencing the peak monthly average (which I made clear in my edit). It peaks at 76..and arguing over one degree is pointless. You could probably subtract at least 2*F for UHI anyway. 2) SeaTac was a UHI bubble long before the third runway was added. The entirety of the Seattle metro area is a UHI hotspot, similar to DC. The differences in trends in the NCDC data records make that crystal clear. 3) I highly doubt Darrington gets the Marine influence that Tim’s area does. I’ll have to check the geography and the numbers on NCDC to see what’s going on there. 1) Other people were talking about the daily peak. 2) Maybe, but the difference since 2005 (third runway) is very noticeable. 3) I highly doubt you are the resident Marine Influence Expert. Stick to large-scale forcings. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 Great afternoon outside with the kids. Went out to the Polk County Fairgrounds. Lots of room for them to run around. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 SEA NWS just tweeted that summer is finally about to start! Spring is over. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 1) Other people were talking about the daily peak. 2) Maybe, but the difference since 2005 (third runway) is very noticeable. 3) I highly doubt you are the resident Marine Influence Expert. Stick to large-scale forcings. You’re an adorable little fella. The PRISM microscale model for 2m temperatures concurs with what I’m saying. Tim’s location runs essentially the same average temperature as SeaTac..minor diurnal differences aside. There is no quantitative evidence to suggest otherwise. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 You’re an adorable little fella. The PRISM microscale model for 2m temperatures concurs with what I’m saying. Tim’s location runs essentially the same average temperature as SeaTac..minor diurnal differences aside. I think that is about right overall. Troughy days are cooler out here in the summer and non-troughy days are generally the same or warmer so it averages out to be about the same. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2018 Report Share Posted July 10, 2018 SEA NWS just tweeted that summer is finally about to start! Spring is over. 88*F @ is insanely warm for SeaTac. That’s analogous to 101*F here. #NotNormal Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Surprisingly warm 78 at SEA today under this trough. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Surprisingly warm 78 at SEA today under this trough. WERE YOU 78???? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 WERE YOU 78????No. This is one of those troughy days I mentioned that offset the days when its warmer here than at SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Well, not that summer hasn't been here for awhile already it's sure showing it's hand for the foreseeable future. Highs are all in the mid to upper 90's for a bit. Great. With pounding sunshine in a bit higher elevation, add 20 almost to that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Sounds hott! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 88*F @ is insanely warm for SeaTac. That’s analogous to 101*F here. #NotNormal Not really. 88 is somewhat hot for Seattle, not too far from run of the mill though for a midsummer ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Not really. 88 is somewhat hot for Seattle, not too far from run of the mill though for a midsummer ridge.Last summer that type of temperature was more common. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Greenland Ice Sheet is getting fat. Second consecutive summer with a mass surplus. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Greenland Ice Sheet is getting fat. Second consecutive summer with a mass surplus. Does that mean we will have arctic cold fun here in Washington while Oregon is stuck in BSF? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Last summer that type of temperature was more common. Yeah, and I'd go out on a limb and guess that SEA has maybe seen a few more 88+ days in its history than DCA has seen 101+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Yeah, and I'd go out on a limb and guess that SEA has maybe seen a few more 88+ days in its history than DCA has seen 101+. That happened 12 times just last summer at SEA... to 0 times at DCA. In 2016... the score was 10 for SEA to 1 for DCA. Just over the last 2 years... the score is 22 to 1 in favor of SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Yeah, and I'd go out on a limb and guess that SEA has maybe seen a few more 88+ days in its history than DCA has seen 101+.It was half tongue in cheek. Obviously, if you normalize the distribution, it’s much more common for SEA to see those +10 anomalies vs DCA. Not even close. SEA has much greater temperature variability during the warm season. As opposed to DCA, where at least 90% of highs in JJA hover between 85 and 95 degrees, with relatively infrequent excursions outside of that range. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 KGW has tips on how to beat the heat! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 KGW has tips on how to beat the heat! Gonna be a scorcher! Cooling stations are being set up at Jesse’s House as we speak! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 11, 2018 Report Share Posted July 11, 2018 Solid cloud cover at home this morning. Totally sunny in Salem though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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