July 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

I heard she was mad about the impending sun and warmth.

http://komonews.com/news/local/cleanup-on-aisle-no-1-for-no-2-store-seeks-info-on-longview-defecator

[TT-SEA]

Euro looks quite a bit hotter for longer than the GFS now.

 

00Z EPS was just as troughy for later next week as the 12Z EPS.

[TT-SEA]

I was there in April and Queenstown is perhaps one of the most picturesque towns I've seen.  I know there are quite a few in the Alps too.

 

Lots of wind in Christchurch.  The mountains were just getting their first snows (early for them) the 11th or so or April.

 

Two pics from Queenstown and the snowy one from my first full day there (April 11th) in the northern part of the south island.

 

Beautiful pics! 

 

Why are those mountains so barren?    It looks like Sonoma Valley combined with Sonoran Desert mountains.   

 

I see forested hills above the town... but the higher mountains look much less forested.

[Tyler Mode]

Beautiful pics! 

 

Why are those mountains so barren?    It looks like Sonoma Valley combined with Sonoran Desert mountains.   

 

I see forested hills above the town... but the higher mountains look much less forested.

Not 100% sure, but my guess is lack of precip.  It's also pretty windy a lot of the year so maybe that has something to do with it?

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Not 100% sure, but my guess is lack of precip.  It's also pretty windy a lot of the year so maybe that has something to do with it?

 

 

I was just checking out the ski conditions there right now... the ski resort area is wide open as well with no trees.    And its on the south facing slopes because the sun is in the northern sky there.  

 

Queenstown is at about 1,000 feet in elevation at 45S... so very similar to my location in terms of elevation and sun angle.    They get much less precip though... and the warmest temperature ever recorded there is only 93 degrees and the coldest is only 17 degrees.   Summer is quite a bit cooler than here on average... winter looks about the same (mid 40s for highs and low 30s for lows).

 

Still... they average almost 30 inches of precip a year so you would think the surrounding mountains would be forested.  Must be the wind.

 

Looks like the summer of 2016-17 was terrible there... consistently wet and windy.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/89016566/worst-summer-for-queenstowns-weatherdependant-businesses

[Kayla]

I was just checking out the ski conditions there right now... the ski resort area is wide open as well with no trees.    And its on the south facing slopes because the sun is in the northern sky there.  

 

Yeah the mountains there are almost completely bare. I'd guess it's mainly from glacial movement many moons ago as glaciers were well established there until rather recently. Still a pretty large glacier around Mt. Cook which I was able to check out from the air and from the surface! Incredibly beautiful.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

PDX only got down to 65 this morning. It's going to be a very hot day!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah the mountains there are almost completely bare. I'd guess it's mainly from glacial movement many moons ago as glaciers were well established there until rather recently. Still a pretty large glacier around Mt. Cook which I was able to check out from the air and from the surface! Incredibly beautiful.

 

 

Definitely could be glaciers too.

 

They have incredibly variable summer weather.     There can be stretches of beautiful weather in the 70s and low 80s and then it can crash and they have highs in the 40s and 50s for several days in the middle of summer.     The summer of 2016-17 had long stretches of highs in the 50s.

 

On February 21st this year they had a high of 46.     That would be like having a high of 46 here on August 21st!   Crazy.     

 

On 1/19/17 they had a high of 48... equivalent to July 19th here.   

[ShawniganLake]

I was just checking out the ski conditions there right now... the ski resort area is wide open as well with no trees. And its on the south facing slopes because the sun is in the northern sky there.

 

Queenstown is at about 1,000 feet in elevation at 45S... so very similar to my location in terms of elevation and sun angle. They get much less precip though... and the warmest temperature ever recorded there is only 93 degrees and the coldest is only 17 degrees. Summer is quite a bit cooler than here on average... winter looks about the same (mid 40s for highs and low 30s for lows).

 

Still... they average almost 30 inches of precip a year so you would think the surrounding mountains would be forested. Must be the wind.

 

Looks like the summer of 2016-17 was terrible there... consistently wet and windy.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/89016566/worst-summer-for-queenstowns-weatherdependant-businesses

Maybe the soil on the hillsides is rocky or very poor. Lots of trees grow in very windy places in the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

PDX only got down to 65 this morning. It's going to be a very hot day!

 

I think there was a little east wind here this morning... the breeze felt very warm.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 51 this morning. +4 departure...

[Jesse]

Onshore push tomorrow and Saturday is starting to look less impressive. Good chance we slide through the weekend with 90+ highs.

[Geos]

Average temperatures in the Arctic peak tomorrow through the upcoming weekend. The long decline into winter begins on Monday.

 

We’re almost there!

 

I would have thought it would be closer to August. Interesting. 

 

Warm morning. Already 78 here. 

[Phil]

I would have thought it would be closer to August. Interesting.

 

Warm morning. Already 78 here.

In some areas near water and/or retreating ice, the peak is in early August. But the high Arctic landmasses and icepack see the peak in the third week of July, for the most part.

[ShawniganLake]

GFS ensemble looks pretty much dry and warm for the next 16 days. No major ridge or trough signals.

[Jesse]

GFS ensemble looks pretty much dry and warm for the next 16 days. No major ridge or trough signals.

Consistent high end warmth. Another mid-summer where it feels like we are the new Medford down here.

 

You’d think at some point we would get a summer that isn’t dominated by patterns like this.

[Geos]

Looks like a bit more marine influence tomorrow. Not as warm, but pretty warm.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is more robust with the trough at day 8 compared to the GFS... more in line with the 00Z EPS.

[Jesse]

Looks like a bit more marine influence tomorrow. Not as warm, but pretty warm.

 

 

81 seems way too cool for down here.

[Deweydog]

Old school day with Hillsboro outpacing PDX by a few degrees!

 

#blastfurnacefromthepast

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF is more robust with the trough at day 8 compared to the GFS... more in line with the 00Z EPS.

Yeah, legit trough days 8-9.

[Deweydog]

Last 96 of July today?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Beautiful hot and sunny day so far out here on the west side. Can't get much better than this!

 

The 12z EURO says its going to be even hotter on Sunday and Monday with high temps of 98 and 97 for PDX.

[Jesse]

Really nice to see the 12z Euro turn troughy in the longer range. Cools us off by Tuesday too. Can’t get much better than that!!

[High Desert Mat!]

Yeah, legit trough days 8-9.

Only 8 days away!! It'll get watered down.

[weatherfan2012]

Definitely looks different than the others so far. But will the second half of July ruin it?

I wrote a post back in April/May on winters with descending westerly shear (mixed QBO) and weak ENSO. They tended to be pretty warm across the country. Especially on the central/eastern states. So (for now) that’s the direction I’m leaning.

The low solar and/or a potential niño (which I don’t expect right now) could change that equation. Next winter would also be favored for an early-season PV-weakening event, statistically speaking.

also giving the fact we had 2 or 3 warm ones mostly country wide the 3rd ones tend to be the last in the series I could see this being another differcult year to forecast as there may be a lot of mix signals and a real wild card is the solar.2019-2020 is pretty simple El Nino with solar minimum with a likey East Qbo in place favers a big East coast winter the last few solar minimum years have seem to work out like that.

[Jesse]

Last 96 of July today?

Seems unlikely. I’m thinking another hot spell toward the end of the month. Probably with a higher peak than the current one.

[Deweydog]

Seems unlikely. I’m thinking another hot spell toward the end of the month. Probably with a higher peak than the current one.

Somebody's doin' the Dew!!!

[Jesse]

Somebody's doin' the Dew!!!

Feels like a logical progression. Especially if we actually manage to get a ULL in here late next week.

[Front Ranger]

Feels like a logical progression. Especially if we actually manage to get a ULL in here late next week.

It will cool down and then warm up again? Sounds familiar...

[TT-SEA]

Really nice to see the 12z Euro turn troughy in the longer range. Cools us off by Tuesday too. Can’t get much better than that!!

 

ECMWF has highs in the 70s even down there on days 7 and 8 (79 on both days)... but warms up again fast on day 9 (87).

[Jesse]

It will cool down and then warm up again? Sounds familiar...

We can make anything sound half-witted here if we try!

[Jesse]

ECMWF has highs in the 70s even down there on days 7 and 8... but warms up again fast on day 9.

What does it do with temps days 1-5?

[Front Ranger]

We can make anything sound half-witted here if we try!

We can also make anything sound logical.

[TT-SEA]

What does it do with temps days 1-5?

 

[Deweydog]

Feels like a logical progression. Especially if we actually manage to get a ULL in here late next week.

Just don't articulate it using the words warm up, cool down followed by warm up.

 

Although I don't think the warm up will necessarily be warmer. As I said a while ago, this summer doesn't feel right for ant truly extreme heat.

[Jesse]

I would have expected cooler Tuesday-Wednesday judging by the maps.

[MossMan]

My kid and dog are extremely sad that it’s not 56 and raining.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

West Central Valley up into the mid 90s. 95 here, 94 in Corvallis. 95 in west Yamhill County.