July 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Still about 90 in the garage, which just happens to be wall to wall concrete.

[MossMan]

Tonight is the first night of the season where I stepped outside at 11pm to let the dogs out and it was actually still mild out. 66 currently. So nice.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Had a high of 82F here with a 62F dewpoint. Not seeing a drop of rain in the next 2 weeks, hope we can avoid the fires this year.

[ShawniganLake]

Had a high of 82F here with a 62F dewpoint. Not seeing a drop of rain in the next 2 weeks, hope we can avoid the fires this year.

The interior is in pretty good shape right now moisture wise. Still there was a fire sparked near Kamloops today. The forecast for tomorrow there is 90F with 35-45mph gusts.

 

Southern Vancouver Island is the driest area in the south, currently sitting in high to extreme fire danger.

[ShawniganLake]

Tonight is the first night of the season where I stepped outside at 11pm to let the dogs out and it was actually still mild out. 66 currently. So nice.

Not even mid June. There was some decent heat then. Much Warmer than today for northern parts of the region.

[MossMan]

Not even mid June. There was some decent heat then. Much Warmer than today for northern parts of the region.

True but the evenings at least in my location cooled very quickly into the low to mid 50’s by evening. Last night felt great!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like most locations in the Willamette Valley finished yesterday in the upper 90s. Troutdale made it to 99 over on the east side. Sunday and Monday we will have another chance to get into the triple digits. PDX only made it down to the mid 60s again this morning. Going to be another hot day!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows the cool down starting Wednesday morning now... Phil will be happy.    His first couple days will likely be quite cool.

[TT-SEA]

Good news with the faster timing is that ridging is building back in already by Friday on the 12Z. Trough slides through BC and gives us a fresh, clean air mass by Thursday. Too bad it probably won't bring any rain. A quick shot of rain would also be nice.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Already 84 in Corvallis and Monmouth. Springfield at 83.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good news with the faster timing is that ridging is building back in already by Friday on the 12Z. Trough slides through BC and gives us a fresh, clean air mass by Thursday. Too bad it probably won't bring any rain. A quick shot of rain would also be nice.

Yeah both the GFS and GEM pump back in the western ridge next weekend. The timing can't be even better.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is faster and weaker with the trough next week.    PDX bottoms out at 81 on Thursday... warming up again by Friday and back around 90 by Saturday which is significantly warmer than the 00Z run for that day.

[Deweydog]

PDX is running four degrees behind yesterday at this time.

 

Hmmmmm....

[TT-SEA]

PDX is running four degrees behind yesterday at this time.

 

Hmmmmm....

 

Same with SEA.  

[Geos]

Up to 79 after a low of 55 this morning. 

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF is faster and weaker with the trough next week. PDX bottoms out at 81 on Thursday... warming up again by Friday and back around 90 by Saturday which is significantly warmer than the 00Z run for that day.

It will be interesting to see what happens first - your grass turning brown or a full-scale Jesse meltdown

[TT-SEA]

It will be interesting to see what happens first - your grass turning brown or a full-scale Jesse meltdown

I will not allow my grass to turn brown.

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF is faster and weaker with the trough next week. PDX bottoms out at 81 on Thursday... warming up again by Friday and back around 90 by Saturday which is significantly warmer than the 00Z run for that day.

That’s not good...for Oregon. Meanwhile I can hardly keep up with my enthusiast grass, landscaping, and weeds!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Another gorgeous day out here in Hillsboro! Already up to 86.

 

The 12z EURO not backing down from near triple digits on Sunday and Monday. Still showing 98 and 97 highs for PDX.

[Front Ranger]

I will not allow my grass to turn brown.

Correction: the free-ranging grass of your microclimate.

[TT-SEA]

Correction: the free-ranging grass of your microclimate.

Ahhh... that will be happening soon.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

93F. Looks like upper 90s again on the way.

[Front Ranger]

Ahhh... that will be happening soon.

Probably the same for Jesse.

 

#prayforbreezes

[Deweydog]

Two down, five to go!

[Crf450ish2]

New EPS weeklies keep trades pumping along the dateline. Will make it tough for a niño to get going.

 

 

 

 

We're going to end up ENSO neutral or very weak Nina.... My prediction....

[Phil]

Another reason to suspect things might turn cooler again in early/mid August (following the warm pool MJO passage) is the fact that the warm pool itself is much weaker this year.

 

Here’s a gif I made comparing SSTAs now to last year at this time. Note the warm pool has ventilated quite a bit, which started after the SSW event. The globe is cooler too, which can only help re: cool anomalies.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We're going to end up ENSO neutral or very weak Nina.... My prediction....

I think it'll be very very weak +ENSO but like literally right barely above the 0 line.

[Phil]

I think it'll be very very weak +ENSO but like literally right barely above the 0 line.

I’m leaning that way too. ONI peak into “niño conditions” by late August or early September, then a walkback to “warm neutral” during O/N/D, then a SSW and/or WWB event around the holidays, with the real move to El Niño initiating during J/F/M 2019 (at least in terms of the subsurface/degree of thermocline shoaling).

 

I suspect 2019/20 will be an El Niño winter, and whether or not it’s a multi-year niño, I suspect it will be followed by a multi-year niña in the early 2020s given what has been a fairly predictable cycle of solar forcing on the IPWP longitude and EHEM ITCZ. Almost like a heartbeat.

[Phil]

Another reason to suspect things might turn cooler again in early/mid August (following the warm pool MJO passage) is the fact that the warm pool itself is much weaker this year.

 

Here’s a gif I made comparing SSTAs now to last year at this time. Note the warm pool has ventilated quite a bit, which started after the SSW event. The globe is cooler too, which can only help re: cool anomalies.

 

FWIW, that’s a good amount of high latitude cooling so far this year.

 

Pretty different from the other recent (non super-niño) years, like 2014 and 2016.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 96 in Springfield. Hottest spot in the valley today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful sunset about to unfold. Get the cameras ready.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like the 600dam line wants to make a comeback

[ShawniganLake]

I’m leaning that way too. ONI peak into “niño conditions” by late August or early September, then a walkback to “warm neutral” during O/N/D, then a SSW and/or WWB event around the holidays, with the real move to El Niño initiating during J/F/M 2019 (at least in terms of the subsurface/degree of thermocline shoaling).

 

I suspect 2019/20 will be an El Niño winter, and whether or not it’s a multi-year niño, I suspect it will be followed by a multi-year niña in the early 2020s given what has been a fairly predictable cycle of solar forcing on the IPWP longitude and EHEM ITCZ. Almost like a heartbeat.

Nice another El Niño next summer. Should be a hot one.

[TT-SEA]

Fire in Silver Falls Park today...

 

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/local/marion-county/fire-in-silver-falls-state-park-grows-to-nearly-6-acres-ymca-camp-evacuated/283-573703206

 

 

Need rain down there.    

[Phil]

Nice another El Niño next summer. Should be a hot one.

Not necessarily. Plenty of chilly and/or wet +ENSO summers in your climate record.

[James Jones]

Not necessarily. Plenty of chilly and/or wet +ENSO summers in your climate record.

 

We don't really do the the chilly summer thing around here anymore. Been a very long time since our last historically notable one.

[Phil]

We don't really do the the chilly summer thing around here anymore. Been a very long time since our last historically notable one.

That doesn’t preclude their return in any way. The mode of interhemispheric circulation has just been exceptionally unfavorable for cool western summers in recent decades...same goes for much of Europe. Especially since the mid/late 1990s.

 

And folks living in NE Canada are in the exact opposite situation..where warm summers have become quite fleeting in recent years. This year the cold has been demolishing records up there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That doesn’t preclude their return in any way. The mode of interhemispheric circulation has just been exceptionally unfavorable for cool western summers in recent decades...same goes for much of Europe. Especially since the mid/late 1990s.

 

And folks living in NE Canada are in the exact opposite situation..where warm summers have become quite fleeting in recent years. This year the cold has been demolishing records up there.

Really hope you're right in the impending cooler years for us. We shall see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snapped a pic of the fire today on my way home. Was putting off quite a bit of smoke. I mistook it for a field burn when I saw it leaving Salem, but realized it was further into the hills than any of the grass fields once I got closer. This pic is about 2 miles west of my place and about 5 miles WNW of the fire. 

 

[James Jones]

That doesn’t preclude their return in any way. The mode of interhemispheric circulation has just been exceptionally unfavorable for cool western summers in recent decades...same goes for much of Europe. Especially since the mid/late 1990s.

 

And folks living in NE Canada are in the exact opposite situation..where warm summers have become quite fleeting in recent years. This year the cold has been demolishing records up there.

 

Eh, the climate here has been slowly but steadily warming for as long as Europeans have been here to record the temperature. This isn't something that just started happening in the last few decades, though our recent run of summers has been ridiculously anomalous compared to the historical averages.

 

It's on the climate to prove that it's stopped warming at this point. We'll still have the occasional blips on the way up like spring-early summer 2011, winter '16-'17, or the general 2008-2012 period, but I see no reason to believe that the long term trend is suddenly going to reverse course.