Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 It is curious how often PDX will see sudden intra-hour jumps like yesterday. 95 at 4pm, 96 at 5pm, apparently hit 98 at 4:30pm. Seems to be the case most days there this summer. VUO was 96.Their sensor has been on the wonky side since late Spring. Should be enough to land them a record hot July. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Their sensor has been on the wonky side since late Spring. Should be enough to land them a record hot July. Yeah, in years past I wouldn't question it much but they really do seem to somehow tack on an extra degree or two every day now, and it's often between observations. Yesterday the reported 6 hour max at 5pm said 97 and yet the high was 98 at 4:30. There's been at least a few days like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Yeah, in years past I wouldn't question it much but they really do seem to somehow tack on an extra degree or two every day now, and it's often between observations. Yesterday the reported 6 hour max at 5pm said 97 and yet the high was 98 at 4:30. There's been at least a few days like that.4:30pm standard time = 5:30pm Pacific time. That part holds up. The widening gulf between them and nearby stations in terms of both high and low temperatures is more what I’m talking about. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Yeah, in years past I wouldn't question it much but they really do seem to somehow tack on an extra degree or two every day now, and it's often between observations. Yesterday the reported 6 hour max at 5pm said 97 and yet the high was 98 at 4:30. There's been at least a few days like that. Same with the 100 too. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 4:30pm standard time = 5:30pm Pacific time. That part holds up. Sort of, but their 5:53pm ob was 95 yesterday. 95-96-95 with a 98 wedged in between is a little funky. Not impossible on a given day but it seems like sort of a trend there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Sort of, but their 5:53pm ob was 95 yesterday. 95-96-95 with a 98 wedged in between is a little funky.Not impossible on a given day but it seems like sort of a trend there.I agree with that part. That sort of thing has been happening with notable regularity since late April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Same with the 100 too.Were they the only location in the I-5 corridor north of Roseburg to officially hit 100? EDIT: I see Scappoose and Hillsboro did it too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 I agree with that part. That sort of thing has been happening with notable regularity since late April. PDX has been averaging 2-3F warmer for highs than the KGW station in downtown Portland the last few months. They are consistently a little warmer than that station for whatever reason, but that disparity is definitely a little wider than usual. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 PDX up to 73. Only -2 compared to yesterday. Your 96 is looking good Justin! Meanwhile a few miles downriver VUO is 70. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Sort of, but their 5:53pm ob was 95 yesterday. 95-96-95 with a 98 wedged in between is a little funky. Not impossible on a given day but it seems like sort of a trend there.Oh, do you know the type of sensor used? Because spikes like that are a classic symptom sensor degradation due to long term radiation damage and/or poor ventilation. If it’s a typical shelter w/ those cooling fins, then slivers of the lower evening sun angle could get thru the gaps in the fins a bit and radiatively warm the sensor. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Oh, do you know the type of sensor used? Because spikes like that are a classic symptom sensor degradation due to long term radiation damage and/or poor ventilation. No clue. But I'm guessing it voted for Al Gore in 2000. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 12z GFS keeps Sunday below 90, unlike the Euro. Hoping it’s right. Any extra day below 90 is a blessed treasure right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 12z GFS keeps Sunday below 90, unlike the Euro. Hoping it’s right. Any extra day below 90 is a blessed treasure right now.Did you subscribe to WB? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Did you subscribe to WB?Careful, that’s one more person on team #ColdAndDrizzle to mentally push the models away from your desired weather patterns. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Did you subscribe to WB?Nah, I like working on interpreting the models without training wheels as much as possible. Plus it would just be another thing for me to obsess over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Unbelievable that we are potentially looking at another 6-7 day heatwave next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Unbelievable that we are potentially looking at another 6-7 day heatwave next week.I disagree. Big, slow MJOs right over the warm pool are the ultimate trigger for western ridges. It’s just what happens. It’s what has always happened. I’d be much more surprised if it wasn’t warm/ridgy right now. That would be like Seattle beating January 1950 with a raging +PNA. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 I disagree. Big, slow MJOs right over the warm pool are the ultimate trigger for western ridges. It’s just what happens. It’s what has always happened. I’d be much more surprised if it wasn’t warm/ridgy right now. That would be like Seattle beating January 1950 with a raging +PNA. 6-7 day heatwaves are pretty unusual in our climate, MJO and warm pool notwithstanding. Getting two within a 2-3 week period would be pretty nutty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 GFS ensembles keep saying the operational is way overdoing it with the heat next week. Probably just a matter of time until they come around though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Only 36hrs till I’m done with this! Heck, this a cooler than average temp, but #lolswamp Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 I was just thinking there was not nearly enough Bethesda content on this page. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 GFS ensembles keep saying the operational is way overdoing it with the heat next week. Probably just a matter of time until they come around though. 9C3C26BD-64DB-4690-A239-F5CE7A4EE5A4.pngHere’s the GEM if you’re interested Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Here’s the GEM if you’re interested Looks like someone squished it vertically, but similar overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Looks like someone squished it vertically, but similar overall.I think yours is from the old site and my image from the newer version, they often look proportioned a bit differently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 I disagree. Big, slow MJOs right over the warm pool are the ultimate trigger for western ridges. It’s just what happens. It’s what has always happened. I’d be much more surprised if it wasn’t warm/ridgy right now. That would be like Seattle beating January 1950 with a raging +PNA.From Michael Ventrice“Both the ECMWF and GFS Ensembles suggest that the eastward propagation of the MJO across the Pacific will be stunted via the emergence of what is likely the emergence of an El Nino atmospheric standing wave. MJO activity often reduces during strong ENSO base states.” August hot box incoming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Just drove down the road to take a couple pics... there a few spots turning brown now but its still mostly green along the roads. I have posted pics over the last few summers of the grass around here totally burnt and brown. I might be able to do that again in a couple weeks... but not yet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Only 36hrs till I’m done with this!Heck, this a cooler than average temp, but #lolswampYou will be freezing your a*s off by Thursday evening! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 From Michael Ventrice“Both the ECMWF and GFS Ensembles suggest that the eastward propagation of the MJO across the Pacific will be stunted via the emergence of what is likely the emergence of an El Nino atmospheric standing wave. MJO activity often reduces during strong ENSO base states.” August hot box incoming?Never quite realized what expert level trolls Canadians were until I joined this forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Saturday is warmer on the 12Z ECMWF compared to the 00Z ECMWF... shows 85 for Portland so 90 is within reach. Have not seen the surface map yet... but Sunday looks really warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Man Jesse will hate that. Yay!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Oh, do you know the type of sensor used? Because spikes like that are a classic symptom sensor degradation due to long term radiation damage and/or poor ventilation. If it’s a typical shelter w/ those cooling fins, then slivers of the lower evening sun angle could get thru the gaps in the fins a bit and radiatively warm the sensor. There was remarkable variability of maximum readings within very short distances [ie less than 50'] during the past heat wave [110+] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 That would be a bizarre pattern for sure. Then again you guys always seem to blow your load in December, so it’d fit recent climatology to an extent.I'll take a cold and snowy December. Too much of a risk to wait until January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF... Looks like triple digits are within reach again down here on Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Man Jesse will hate that. Yay!!!! Well... its better than what it shows for Monday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Well... its better than what it shows for Monday. Extreme heat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Apparently it doesn't take much for us to hit 100 anymore. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Never quite realized what expert level trolls Canadians were until I joined this forum. Haha. Well isn’t the mjo leaving the warm pool the key to Phil’s thoughts on August. Maybe it’s moving slower than he was thinking. Not really sure if this was a total troll post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Phil's timing on this trip could not be better for him... perfectly in between two heat waves. His mantra of ridging and hot weather always following him appears to be false. Although it looks really warm along the entire BC coast next week. I am sure that will translate to 50s on the coast and 80s about a mile inland so he will be fine there as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 17, 2018 Report Share Posted July 17, 2018 Looks like the Euro keeps us in the 90s or higher down here through day 10. Score!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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