July 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Light drizzle!

Drove to Anacortes ferry terminal this morning. Took this pic at your exit... there was some light drizzle there. Looks dry!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Light drizzle!

It's gotta suck living in the c-zone area. You get more snow than we do tho so that's a positive for you.

[MossMan]

Drove to Anacortes ferry terminal this morning. Took this pic at your exit... there was some light drizzle there. Looks dry!

 

Yeah the tinder dry brown landscape up here is just insane, huh!

[Front Ranger]

SEA's driest May/June/July on record happened just 3 years ago in 2015. The total was .90".

 

2018 will break that record if SEA gets less than .10" the rest of July. 

[Blizzard777]

Drove to Anacortes ferry terminal this morning. Took this pic at your exit... there was some light drizzle there. Looks dry!

 

 

That was Mossman playing with his new high powered sprinklers system up North at the new place

You just got some overspray

[ShawniganLake]

Not a cloud in the sky but you can feel that fresh marine air this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Not a cloud in the sky but you can feel that fresh marine air this morning.

It was dark and gloomy on our drive until almost Anacortes and then suddenly sunny.

[Jesse]

Looks like another beautiful day on tap.

Figured the valley would be filled up like a tub-thumpin’ bathtub by now.

[Geos]

My sniffer was awake

 

I smelled the smoke yesterday. Totally different and refreshing this morning. Currently at 60 with very light drizzle at home.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 46 this morning a sparkling -1 departure!

[Geos]

It was dark and gloomy on our drive until almost Anacortes and then suddenly sunny.

 

Again the invisible cloud barrier south of Bellingham. But today the lower Fraser Valley is socked in too.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a hint of cloud in the sky.

[Phil]

21 consecutive spotless days now...for reference the longest spotless stretch in the 2008/09 solar minimum was 58 days, so we’re only about 36% of that so far.

 

Still, surprisingly early to see this. We haven’t seen many SC25 polarity spots yet, and the dipole clearly hasn’t crested to its solar minimum structure yet. As of now the consensus is that the solar minimum will occcur in winter 2019/20 or early in 2020, so there possibly quite a ways left to go before the minimum.

 

Will be interesting to see how deep this solar minimum gets, and whether it can produce huge -NAOs like the last one.

[Geos]

21 consecutive spotless days now...for reference the longest spotless stretch in the 2008/09 solar minimum was 58 days, so we’re only about 36% of that so far.

 

Still, surprisingly early to see this. We haven’t seen many SC25 polarity spots yet, and the dipole clearly hasn’t crested to its solar minimum structure yet. As of now the consensus is that the solar minimum will occcur in winter 2019/20 or early in 2020, so there possibly quite a ways left to go before the minimum.

 

Will be interesting to see how deep this solar minimum gets, and whether it can produce huge -NAOs like the last one.

 

So that would finally give the boot to the NE Canada vortex?

[Phil]

So that would finally give the boot to the NE Canada vortex?

You’d think so. Even before the solar slowdown in recent decades, the NE-Canadian vortex would tend to dissipate during 11yr solar minimums (weak vortex winters in 2010/11, 2009/10, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985/86, 1984/85, 1977/78, 1965/66, 1964/65, 1963/64, 1956/57, 1955/56, 1954/55, etc).

 

So even during the peak of the modern maximum, that vortex would lose support during the 11yr solar minimums.

[Phil]

But then again, the vortex has been unusually persistent in recent years. So persistent, in fact, that it’s essentially built it’s own “estate” within the system. So it might still be a fight.

 

It’s beefed up the Labrador Current, tanked NATL SSTs/OHC above 50N, strengthened the NATL High and off-Pacific anticyclones/trades, leading to the SST cooling across the tropical Atlantic and IO. And this year it’s essentially been ping-ponging the far WHEM tropical forcing/z-cell cyclicality to its own period of resonance with the WPAC/warm pool.

[MossMan]

21 consecutive spotless days now...for reference the longest spotless stretch in the 2008/09 solar minimum was 58 days, so we’re only about 36% of that so far.

 

Still, surprisingly early to see this. We haven’t seen many SC25 polarity spots yet, and the dipole clearly hasn’t crested to its solar minimum structure yet. As of now the consensus is that the solar minimum will occcur in winter 2019/20 or early in 2020, so there possibly quite a ways left to go before the minimum.

 

Will be interesting to see how deep this solar minimum gets, and whether it can produce huge -NAOs like the last one.

I would love to see what a Dec. 2008 type setup would produce in my new area. My work is only 3 minutes west of my new house and at a lower elevation and I remember coming out a few times to my work location (was a volunteer at the time) and they easily were running at least 6” more snow than I was and my location was running at a high number...so my new house was probably running almost a foot higher totals than my old location. I’m looking forward to seeing what my new area can produce with a 2008 setup!!

Let’s keep those spotless days going!

[Phil]

And though it’s not a concern at the moment, that region from Baffin Island to Labrador to the Hudson Bay was the starting point for (at least) the last five glacial inceptions, and the last one occurred while the globe was warmer than today, ironically.

 

So it’s not a region you want to see get too cold for too long, haha. Topography and meteorological mechanics make it very easy cold patterns to self-sustain and amplify there when Obliquity is low/decreasing.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So I heard some friends talk about what a good winter for snow 92-93 was for the Willamette Valley. I was only 8 at the time so my memory is fuzzy. I think I remember coming home from school one day and the news was showing it snowing at the beach and then a few mins later it changed to snow IMBY. Does anybody have a recollection of what events made it so great and totals for the Valley from it? Wunderground history doesn't give the best snow info for KSLE and KEUG.

[Front Ranger]

You’d think so. Even before the solar slowdown in recent decades, the NE-Canadian vortex would tend to dissipate during 11yr solar minimums (weak vortex winters in 2010/11, 2009/10, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985/86, 1984/85, 1977/78, 1965/66, 1964/65, 1963/64, 1956/57, 1955/56, 1954/55, etc).

 

So even during the peak of the modern maximum, that vortex would lose support during the 11yr solar minimums.

 

I believe we're close (from a solar perspective) to where 2008 was at this point. We went from a +NAO winter 2007-08 to -NAO in 2008-09, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see that happen this time around.

 

Of course, it's not just the NAO. Low solar also correlates with -EPO...greater NH blocking in general. 

[Deweydog]

So I heard some friends talk about what a good winter for snow 92-93 was for the Willamette Valley. I was only 8 at the time so my memory is fuzzy. I think I remember coming home from school one day and the news was showing it snowing at the beach and then a few mins later it changed to snow IMBY. Does anybody have a recollection of what events made it so great and totals for the Valley from it? Wunderground history doesn't give the best snow info for KSLE and KEUG.

Snow events made that winter snowy. There were several. The biggest one was likely February 19th down there.

[Front Ranger]

Snow events made that winter snowy. There were several. The biggest one was likely February 19th down there.

 

One of the few winters that delivered significant snow events in all three winter months for many places.

[Phil]

I believe we're close (from a solar perspective) to where 2008 was at this point. We went from a +NAO winter 2007-08 to -NAO in 2008-09, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see that happen this time around.

 

Of course, it's not just the NAO. Low solar also correlates with -EPO...greater NH blocking in general.

Hmm..interesting. I’ve always found the correlation to be more with PNA and less with EPO. Do you recall the correlation coefficient?

 

I’ll run the data again, but IIRC the -PNA and -NAO both correlate with solar minimum, while -EPO tends to occur more frequently during solar maximum (albeit weaker solar maximums are more likely to have -EPO than strong ones).

[Phil]

Cool! NOAA ESRL allows you to plot and cross-correlate two separate variables.

 

Shouldn’t be too difficult to answer this one. Will run the numbers are brb.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That's near Tygh Valley, that is like 20-25 miles from The Dalles.

That fire was put out. There was another one and their naming it the "Substation Fire". It looks like it's out of control now and grown to 29,000 acres overnight.

 

"THE DALLES, Ore. — A wildfire southeast of The Dalles that started Tuesday afternoon has now burned 29,000 acres and forced mandatory evacuations.

 

Portland Fire & Rescue Lt. Damon Simmons said 19-24 mph winds will likely push the Substation Fire to the south and east Wednesday. He said low humidity, high winds and dry fuels in the area will make it a tough firefight.

 

"It's just a tinderbox out here," he said.

 

Level 3 (GO!) evacuation notices have been issued for several areas southeast of The Dalles."

 

 

https://www.kgw.com/mobile/article/news/local/its-just-a-tinderbox-out-here-substation-fire-grows-to-29000-acres-near-the-dalles/283-574914450

[MossMan]

One of the few winters that delivered significant snow events in all three winter months for many places.

It was spaced out wonderfully. My first winter as a licensed driver so I got lots of practice driving in icy conditions...in my 1975 Chevy ElCamino rear wheel drive!

[Geos]

Sun is out now. Temp up to 71.

[Front Ranger]

Hmm..interesting. I’ve always found the correlation to be more with PNA and less with EPO. Do you recall the correlation coefficient?

 

I’ll run the data again, but IIRC the -PNA and -NAO both correlate with solar minimum, while -EPO tends to occur more frequently during solar maximum (albeit weaker solar maximums are more likely to have -EPO than strong ones).

It was awhile ago that I looked at it, but I'm pretty sure the correlation was for both EPO and WPO. Basically, blocking in Alaska/Bering Sea area.

 

Deep -PNA is often accompanied by either/both -WPO and -EPO, so that would make sense.

[Deweydog]

Niece day!

[Jesse]

Niece day!

You must be talking to your #berniebro sister again. :’)

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro was a little more aggressive with the trough on Saturday.

 

Sustained warmth after that, but nothing too extreme.

[Jesse]

PDX should make a run at 85 or so today.

 

If there is a month that they will finally eclipse July 1985 for hottest on record, this suddenly isn’t looking like too shabby a candidate.

[Kayla]

PDX should make a run at 85 or so today.

 

If there is a month that they will finally eclipse July 1985 for hottest on record, this suddenly isn’t looking like too shabby a candidate.

 

Was it you who said 75F average this month at PDX? Maybe it was a bit tongue in cheek but it might actually be a good call at this point. 

[Geos]

Getting close to 80. 78 right now. 

[Geos]

50's tonight!

 

 

This is interesting. Arctic temperatures below normal. Barely above freezing.

 

[MossMan]

Nice day!

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day.

 

Pictured below is the Anacortes to Friday Harbor ferry passing in front of Shaw Island from a beach on Lopez Island.

 

Probably 30 miles west of Randy's house as the crow flies.

 

[High Desert Mat!]

That fire over by the Dalles looks interesting. Hmmmm

[Jesse]

That fire over by the Dalles looks interesting. Hmmmm

Gorgeous day for one!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That fire over by the Dalles looks interesting. Hmmmm

Gonna be like Mordor here by September.