Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 FWIW here is the 12z UKMET at day 6. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Huge changes on the 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM for Sunday onward... way warmer and drier. Yeah this is pretty how much 90% of these August troughs end up as we get closer. A quick burst of rain would have been great but I'll take anything other than 95-100F and smoke at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 I love how the models can lock onto a heatwave days in advance and only have it become more impressive and prolonged as it approaches. Basically the dead opposite with summer troughing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Huge changes on the 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM for Sunday onward... way warmer and drier.similar progression but the gem parks that low a lot closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 How's the ensemble support for this GFS run?Chart hasn’t updated yet. But someone else might know a way to see them quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Hopefully the EURO isn't any different from the last run. Let the other models cave to it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Chart hasn’t updated yet. But someone else might know a way to see them quicker. You can view the GEFS on Tropical Tidbits as it comes out. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018073112&fh=150 Ensemble mean looks to have trended a little west with the troughing but the OP is still a massive outlier. Today's 12z and yesterday's 18z GFS runs definitely seem to be going through the same dealer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Clouds starting to break up here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 The models that keep the energy dropping down out of Alaska as an open wave as opposed to a tightening cutoff tend to be more progressive. The sun also rises in the evening and sets in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 The mid-latitude anticyclones are still well poleward of climo for -QBO. I think it’s reasonable to expect the GOA trough/ULL train to intermittently retrograde offshore at times. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a troughy month. There is no coherent MJO/wave-1 tropical forcing pattern once the big warm pool convection begins dying later this week. A few CCKWs into the WHEM with the third pulse timed well w/ perpendicular exhaust to the SH initiating the next round of IO divergence during the third week of August. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Chart hasn’t updated yet. But someone else might know a way to see them quicker.The mean is about 10C lower than the operational for early next week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Looks like PDX is just 0.1 short of tying the all time record warmest month as of yesterday (74.1 in July 1985). The average high temp so far of 87.5 ties the average high in July 1985, but the average low of 60.5 falls a little short of 1985’s 60.7. Will be interesting to see how today impacts the final numbers. A tie seems likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 The Greenland ice sheet is fat and happy right now. Been a string of cool summers up there. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Still some clouds drifting in. Temp up to 65. EURO out to 48 hours now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Amazing stuff. Got down into the mid 50s here this morning after a high of 100 degrees yesterday afternoon. I’ve never experienced a diurnal temperature cycle like that before during the warm season. Ever. Truly foreign to me. Just a few hours after sunset it was essentially room temperature outside. And while the middle of the afternoon was still uncomfortably hot, the lack of humidity makes such a huge difference. I wasn’t instantly drenched in sweat upon walking outside like I would be in the swamp. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 EURO deepens the trough this weekend. Looking stronger and more pronounced. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Amazing stuff. Got down into the mid 50s here this morning after a high of 100 degrees yesterday afternoon. I’ve never experienced a diurnal temperature cycle like that before during the warm season. Ever. Truly foreign to me. Just a few hours after sunset it was essentially room temperature outside. And while the middle of the afternoon was still uncomfortably hot, the lack of humidity makes such a huge difference. I wasn’t instantly drenched in sweat upon walking outside like I would be in the swamp.It's a dry heat. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 12Z ECMWF is plenty wet from Sunday-Wednesday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 12Z ECMWF is plenty wet from Sunday-Wednesday.You must be plenty disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 You must be plenty disappointed.Terribly! Might have to troll you even more with the next warm spell. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Terribly! Might have to troll you even more with the next warm spell. I’m sure that would have happened regardless. Anyhow, the last six years have essentially been one big warm spell. That would mean you have been trolling the entire...holy crap I think I just solved the forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Some crazy outlier operational solutions from the GFS lately. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 I’m sure that would have happened regardless. Anyhow, the last six years have essentially been one big warm spell. That would mean you have been trolling the entire...holy crap I think I just solved the forum.Warm and wet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Warm and wet.In the winter. Hot and dry May-Sept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 I wouldn’t mind the Euro forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 In the winter. Hot and dry May-Sept.Great! Not in 2014... wettest April-August ever up here. Top tier wet August in 2015. Not hot and dry in 2016. And 2018 just dried out. Portland southward just sucks donkey balls Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Great! Portland southward just sucks donkey balls You must mean the 95% percent of the region surrounding the damp clump of moss you and Randy call home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Smoke has cleared out down here today. The sky is nice and blue again and there is a mild NW wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Goddammit models. Trying to pick out outfits for my trip next weekend. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 You must mean the 95% percent of the region surrounding the damp clump of moss you and Randy call home. Yep! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 There's a map for that. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Goddammit models. Trying to pick out outfits for my trip next weekend.Speedo. It works great in any situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Speedo. It works great in any situation.Not really. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 12Z EPS appears to water down the trough compared to 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Pleasant 82F in Eugene. Smoke off to the southeast. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 12Z EPS appears to water down the trough compared to 00Z run.Funny, I was about to post the complete opposite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Not really.Good point farmboy. There are actually many situations and weather conditions in which a speedo would be entirely inappropriate. I guess he didn’t think of that before making his 100% serious post. He’s probably a rain lover too... <_> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Funny, I was about to post the complete opposite.You need WB Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 You need WBNah, your interpretation is often way off even with that crutch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 31, 2018 Report Share Posted July 31, 2018 Speedo. It works great in any situation.Yeah, but my significant other frowns on me wearing the same thing every day. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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