PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. What the models AND ensembles are showing is nothing short of special. 

It's a very good prospect even for people besides you and Tim.  Quite a northerly component to the upper level flow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This is from the first round of cold.

Not sure who would be unhappy with this. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure who would be unhappy with this. 

South Sound maybe. Looks great for here though. Euro too

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure who would be unhappy with this. 

Someone from Orcas Island.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure who would be unhappy with this. 

Probably them. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's beyond being a very good prospect even for people other than you and Tim.  Quite a northerly component to the upper level flow.

Yeah. It’s as good as it gets this time of year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Probably them. 

Until they get hammered on Saturday!

[WeatherGeek2022]

I don't want it if we're not *all* gonna be buried

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run has 4 major troughs.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is from the first round of cold.

One of the snowier early-stage solutions I’ve seen recently for MBY. Hopefully the start of a trend.

[Christensen87]

Alright who’s posting the Druncle total snow map

[snow_wizard]

It is looking increasingly possible this could be a prolonged period of well below normal temps coming up.  The models want to drop the NAO with the sustained very minus PNA during week 2.  No doubt this GFS run is very decent.

[Doinko]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Magnificent. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

man it's hard not to laugh at these long range solutions the models often spit out.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, WeatherGeek2022 said:

man it's hard not to laugh at these long range solutions the models often spit out.

This probably has something to it.  The EPS has the PNA very minus for a long time coming up.  After a while the NAO comes down which usually means at least some continental flavor.  Looks like the 18z GFS want to alternate from maritime polar to cold continental dominance.  Good recipe for lowland snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No words. This is what the ensembles have been hinting at. 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah. It’s as good as it gets this time of year. 

No it’s not. There are many ways it could be better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No doubt if this was some arctic air sliding 500 miles east we would have 5 pages of comments an hour. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

man it's hard not to laugh at these long range solutions the models often spit out.

What, you don't believe Eureka, CA is going to get a foot and a half of snow soon?

Why such negativity?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

No it’s not.

You obviously don’t understand our climate then.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What, you don't believe Eureka, CA is going to get a foot and a half of snow soon?

Why such negativity?

Of course it’s gonna happen. The GFS is ROCK SOLID.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You obviously don’t understand our climate then.

Any temperature anomaly map with BOTH blue colors over the Pacific Northwest AND red ones over the Mid-Atlantic region is about as good as it gets.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This looks great. I would expect sometime tomorrow our zone will get a winter storm watch. 

[MossMan]

Major dumpage now! Up to .36” on the day. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What, you don't believe Eureka, CA is going to get a foot and a half of snow soon?

Why such negativity?

Andrew is in rare form today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Any temperature anomaly map with BOTH blue colors over the Pacific Northwest AND red ones over the Mid-Atlantic region is about as good as it gets.

I get it. March 2012 was horror back there too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Andrew is in rare form today. 

I’m all in. I work hard not to be so on board, but why not? Everyone knows the pattern as modeled is my favorite, it’s like Jim with northerly winds slamming through the puget sound!

Edited February 18, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[RCola]

If only the 18z GFS wasn't the 18z GFS...

Models seem to be latching on to the idea that Tuesday-Wednesday could be yet another fringe event for Seattle. A few inches north of the city and a screw zone to the south and east. Seattle on the fringe has been a pretty consistent theme this year, so I won't be surprised if it verified. Still hoping we get an inch in the city. 

Snowfall looks more promising in OR for a few inches, and honestly, y'all deserve it. We've had some great events up this way over the last 4 years. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You obviously don’t understand our climate then.

Whatever you’re doped up on, I need some.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I get it. March 2012 was horror back there too. 

That winter was infinitely better than this one.  

[Cold Snap]

Well that was quite the GFS run.

[Phil]

I’m sure we all remember what last year’s SSW/dynamic final warming led to during the spring months.  

Repeat?

[WeatherGeek2022]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What, you don't believe Eureka, CA is going to get a foot and a half of snow soon?

Why such negativity?

lol it'd be the sign of end times

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m sure we all remember what last year’s SSW/dynamic final warming led to during the spring months.  

Repeat?

Pretty sure there is a final warming every year.  

[thickhog]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This looks great. I would expect sometime tomorrow our zone will get a winter storm watch. 

Yah, anyone > 1500 feet should do well

[MossMan]

How everyone here will look like by Tuesday morning after all of the model riding. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

How everyone here will look like by Tuesday morning after all of the model riding. 

Just sit back and enjoy the ride! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

You really named your dog Rain?

Mine is named Stormy, but I like storms.

Her name is Lexi 

[MossMan]

Rain has stopped! Getting bright!!