PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fire season wasn’t bad in the Caribooo region tho. 

It was a very quiet fire season up there.  Good one with the extra “o”. But do you know the difference between to and too?

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

have had my eye on next week (week of 2/20) for about a month now.

 

looks like at least something fun is still in the cards.

 

probably more 'garden variety' than record breaking but it is what it is

I never thought there would be a sudden switch from zonal to continental (not usually the case given prolonged W1 response/SSW under +QBO, except 1989).

But I stand by my idea that the pattern in the NW will gradually become colder and more continental (both absolutely and w/ respect to average) over the next several weeks.

And I think the blowtorch here will finally end sometime between 3/5 - 3/10.

[Fircrest]

Can't leave cats out of this.  Mine doesn't trust any of the models and is ready for spring!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Since we are posting dog pics. This beauty is in heat and went looking for a mate, had to pick her up from up on the ridge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

4 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Can't leave cats out of this.  Mine doesn't trust any of the models and is ready for spring!

My cat enjoying the snow on Tuesday. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’d have to be a sadist to want warm weather in February. It’s disgusting.

I'm one of them

[Jakewestsalem]

31 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This pattern is about as useful as a little boy with a plate of burnt biscuits.

RIP Big Daddy

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

RIP Big Daddy

Sh*t, I didn’t know he died.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Since we are posting dog pics. This beauty is in heat and went looking for a mate, had to pick her up from up on the ridge.

That’s a crew that looks ready for a mid range trough.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, T-Town said:

Back in the day the heavy industry in Tacoma pumped out quite a stench. Growing up here, it just seemed normal that on clear, cold winter days it smelled like a pulp mill. The smell is mostly gone at this point, but Tacoma’s reputation lives on. 

I almost moved to Tacoma at one point (about 10 years ago). Even at that stage, it had improved A LOT over what it was like circa 1990. The Stadium and Proctor neighbourhoods were quite nice. Plus, Point Defiance Park. Seattle really has nothing to compare with it.

[Front Ranger]

36 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Rain will have the final say.

You really named your dog Rain?

Mine is named Stormy, but I like storms.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

My cat enjoying the snow on Tuesday. 

My cat was pretty entertaining on Wednesday.   He was so happy to escape out the front door and then touched the snow and stopped and stared at his feet for like a minute and then started crying for me to pick him up.  Apparently he has the same opinion as me about snow after Valentines Day.   

 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I almost moved to Tacoma at one point (about 10 years ago). Even at that stage, it had improved A LOT over what it was like circa 1990. The Stadium and Proctor neighbourhoods were quite nice. Plus, Point Defiance Park. Seattle really has nothing to compare with it.

Point Defiance park was definitely one of my favorite things about living in Tacoma.

[FroYoBro]

Hey Andrew, what do you think about this on the 18z GFS?

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The ICON is truly special. 

Yeah most area would be happy with that outcome.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Hey Andrew, what do you think about this on the 18z GFS?

 

 

Looks like a blessing straight out of the 2012 playbook. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My cat was pretty entertaining on Wednesday.   He was so happy to escape out the front door and then touched the snow and stopped and stared at his feet for like a minute and then started crying for me to pick him up.  Apparently he has the same opinion as me about snow after Valentines Day.   

 

Our cat Pickles really enjoyed the snow. She was trying to catch the flakes. Hank and George (pictured) are not as big of fans, they usually hang in the laundry room on cold days. 

Edited February 18, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Hey Andrew, what do you think about this on the 18z GFS?

 

 

That works! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lol every run on the gfs is much different on placement.  As usual we won't know anything until we are 12 hrs away from low development. 

[Doinko]

GFS is pretty nice for snow.

 

[Weiner Warrior]

Ohhhh

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Lol every run on the gfs is much different on placement.  As usual we won't know anything until we are 12 hrs away from low development. 

Agree we won't really know what will happen until we're basically right on top of this event but the GFS has been decently consistent on the bigger picture and ICON shows a very similar sequence of events. Arctic front comes through all the way through NW OR, area of low pressure sets up somewhere off the southern WA coast, kicks up some deformation over western WA and the low sinks south while spreading precip over western OR. 

Fairly subtle changes in the details of this result in annoyingly big fluctuations on the ground of course.

I think its a good bet that there are gonna be some surprises for someone and I'm sure somewhere in the lowlands will get a good snowfall Wednesday. As badly as I want PDX to score I have a feeling the Sound is gonna do well with this, probably under some deformation precip that will do better than modeled. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am interested to see if the GFS eventually trends towards the euro/Gem in developing a strong surface low ahead of the next trough. That would be interesting to say the least. 

[MossMan]

Lovely day! 42 and moderate rain. 
.28” so far on the day. 
And the afternoon snow pile update! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Agree we won't really know what will happen until we're basically right on top of this event but the GFS has been decently consistent on the bigger picture and ICON shows a very similar sequence of events. Arctic front comes through all the way through NW OR, area of low pressure sets up somewhere off the southern WA coast, kicks up some deformation over western WA and the low sinks south while spreading precip over western OR. 

Fairly subtle changes in the details of this result in annoyingly big fluctuations on the ground of course.

I think its a good bet that there are gonna be some surprises for someone and I'm sure somewhere in the lowlands will get a good snowfall Wednesday. As badly as I want PDX to score I have a feeling the Sound is gonna do well with this, probably under some deformation precip that will do better than modeled. 

You have nothing to worry about. Trust the process. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS was another step back for the Puget Sound area for snow in the period that matters when we have arctic air available. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Lovely day! 42 and moderate rain. 
.28” so far on the day. 
And the afternoon snow pile update! 

Party sunny and 47 here. Doesn’t really rain here anymore. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS was another step back for the Puget Sound area for snow in the period that matters when we have arctic air available. 

Overall it’s a great run and very cold for this time of year. Below normal airmasses prevail. 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is quite cold overall.  GOA blocking continues with N to NW flow aloft pretty consistently.  Might even get another shot of cold continental air during week two.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall it’s a great run and very cold for this time of year. Below normal airmasses prevail. 

Numerous lowland snow chances.  I'm nearly certain there will be surprises with the initial cold shot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Omg wow we get absolutely nailed on this run! 

[snow_wizard]

That early March trough sure looks interesting on this run.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS was another step back for the Puget Sound area for snow in the period that matters when we have arctic air available. 

Could I trouble you for a map please? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That early March trough sure looks interesting on this run.

What a BLAST!

[snow_wizard]

This coming two weeks has an almost mid 1950s flavor to it on the models.  Even the periods that aren't flat out cold are still very much in play for snow.  Hard to imagine anyone getting skunked when all is said and done.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Could I trouble you for a map please? 

I'm just not buying it.  Your area does pretty well on this run though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This coming two weeks has an almost mid 1950s flavor to it on the models.  Even the periods that aren't flat out cold are still very much in play for snow.  Hard to imagine anyone getting skunked when all is said and done.

I agree. What the models AND ensembles are showing is nothing short of special. 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Could I trouble you for a map please? 

324 hr snowfall maps!

 

[snow_wizard]

This is from the first round of cold.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

, but next Saturday looks like it might be interesting IMBY next Saturday morning (surface temperatures check out; this is not phantom snow).