PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[MossMan]

36 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like we manage 4 days in the low to mid 30s and some snow going into the cold. Most of us on the forum score too. Not too shabby for late February. Certainly no 2011 but up here could end up statistically similar to 2018. 

And if I remember correctly 2011 was supposed to be mostly a nothing burger up here precip wise but that changed in a BIG hurry! Will be fun to watch this thing unfold! 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And if I remember correctly 2011 was supposed to be mostly a nothing burger up here precip wise but that changed in a BIG hurry! Will be fun to watch this thing unfold! 

Yep, the models were bone dry in the lead up to that one. Better ridge support back then compared to the upcoming pattern. Then again, we've had a lot of recent events come through for us without classic ridge support.

[Requiem]

Portlanders and folks further south are gonna have to hope that the GFS somehow has a good idea of what's gonna happen or for an absolute surprise. We will see! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

41 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

If we get a deformation type setup that could be golden for some spots in the Puget Sound. The first storm of Feb. 2019 had the same setup and it’s one of my all time favorite snowstorms.

Yea ended up with like 8-10in. It was awesome! Best event of 2019 for me. 

[Dave]

Although this is off topic, this is a good watch. This dude dumbs down a lot of the meteorology for plebs like me and he seems to know what he is talking about. It is a good summary of the deadly Vancouver, WA tornado of 1972.

  

[SouthHillFrosty]

PEPTO!

[WeatherGeek2022]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

PEPTO!

meh, not screaming snow loud enough tbh

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SeattleGrocer]

Long time lurker first time poster. Normally I root snow on as hard as I possibly can but next week I am headed to bandon for 5 days of golf (Wednesday-Sunday) and I am praying to anyone listening that any snow headed towards bandon diverts north and dumps all over everything north and east. Thanks everyone for filling up countless evenings of me interpreting feelings about models and hunches. Special shout out TT-Sea I particularly pay attention to your posts for whatever reason. I live in Mukilteo. 
 

edit: I love this forum because when it snows it directly affects my business and staffing a grocery store. It ultimately means more business but getting everyone to work usually entails me picking up and dropping off several employees, I still root for it because the ensuing chaos of snow in Seattle is ultimately a really really fun challenge. 

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, SeattleGrocer said:

Long time lurker first time poster. Normally I root snow on as hard as I possibly can but next week I am headed to bandon for 5 days of golf (Wednesday-Sunday) and I am praying to anyone listening that any snow headed towards bandon diverts north and dumps all over everything north and east. Thanks everyone for filling up countless evenings of me interpreting feelings about models and hunches. Special shout out TT-Sea I particularly pay attention to your posts for whatever reason. I live in Mukilteo. 
 

edit: I love this forum because when it snows it directly affects my business and staffing a grocery store. It ultimately means more business but getting everyone to work usually entails me picking up and dropping off several employees, I still root for it because the ensuing chaos of snow in Seattle is ultimately a really really fun challenge. 

I don't golf much these days, but I have played the Old MacDonald course in Bandon before. I don't understand how anyone could play golf on the Oregon coast in February. Practically guaranteed crappy weather.

I also looked into it and it will snow down there for a bit. Sorry to break the news to you. 

[SeattleGrocer]

4 minutes ago, Dave said:

I don't golf much these days, but I have played the Old MacDonald course in Bandon before. I don't understand how anyone could play golf on the Oregon coast in February. Practically guaranteed crappy weather.

I also looked into it and it will snow down there for a bit. Sorry to break the news to you. 

I’ve been 3 times in February and had beautiful weather for the most part. If we were there those days this current week it would be Mecca. Hoping my wishes ring true.

[ShawniganLake]

Oh wow. Massive improvement on the 6Z GFS.  Shows my area getting a foot of snow during the middle of next week. 
 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Oh wow. Massive improvement on the 6Z GFS.  Shows my area getting a foot of snow during the middle of next week. 
 

 

I just don't get the GFS... both of these images are for the 06Z GFS.   And the majority of the snow on that map does not actually fall during that brief 3-day cold period. 

Just doesn't make sense!    I mean... I get how it can technically happen but pepto maps are usually accompanied by much more impressive meteograms.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z is horrible for WV snow, but great up here the entire run. 

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday looks like it will be too warm for snow... but big differences show up between the GFS and ECMWF on Wednesday.    The ECMWF shows scattered areas of snow with temps in the mid 30s that day while the GFS really plays up the easterly flow upslope against the Olympics.    Ironically the GFS is actually warmer out here east of Seattle on Wednesday than the ECMWF.   

Wednesday snowfall per the ECMWF and GFS and high temps that day per the GFS.   Technically still too warm for snow from my area southward but cold enough from Seattle northward.

 

[TT-SEA]

A couple more interesting maps from the 06Z GFS... total snow through next weekend which encompasses the cold trough and the overrunning event and then snow depth by next Sunday.   I think this speaks to the marginal nature of the situation.   But that doesn't mean it won't be very memorable for some places.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think our best shot at decent accumulation here is Tuesday night. Moisture will be spotty after that. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

NWS mentioned 10% chance or less of Seattle area having 1 inch or more of snowfall. If this is true  That is pretty lame.

 

[Snowdome]

Disappointing trends. Just not the year for pdx metro. At least Mt Hood has been getting weekly reloads 

[Ray]

I tell you what, if I had a nickle for every time these maps change right up to the event itself I could retire.  You would think after years of seeing this that we would know the fidelity is just not there to accurately predict what will actually happen.  None the less, it is fun to wishcast.  It will be exciting to see how this ultimately plays out.

[TacomaWx]

26 minutes ago, Ray said:

I tell you what, if I had a nickle for every time these maps change right up to the event itself I could retire.  You would think after years of seeing this that we would know the fidelity is just not there to accurately predict what will actually happen.  None the less, it is fun to wishcast.  It will be exciting to see how this ultimately plays out.

There’s really no point in getting excited or disappointed in any particular location yet. Details won’t really start locking in until Monday most likely…and even then there will still be surprises. Everyone’s got a chance to see something with this pattern and snow maps are notoriously bad on every model…even the highly established euro past 24-36 hours. My gut feeling is most people will be happy next week. 

[bainbridgekid]

Deformation band snow lingers around Puget Sound into Wednesday evening on the 12z GFS.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Deformation band snow lingers around Puget Sound into Wednesday evening on the 12z GFS.

GFS has been quite consistent with broad easterly flow upslope against the Olympics on Wednesday.     This is a fairly dry set up for the EPSL though.

[Doinko]

GFS is much warmer but snow hangs on until Thursday night. Not liking the trend to water down the cold on most models though

[Gummy]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Deformation band snow lingers around Puget Sound into Wednesday evening on the 12z GFS.

It shows most of WA at or below freezing during that timeframe also.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

NWS mentioned 10% chance or less of Seattle area having 1 inch or more of snowfall. If this is true  That is pretty lame.

 

They will probably jinx it again.

[TT-SEA]

ICON is actually not that different for Wednesday with wrap around snow in easterly flow and temps in the low 30s.   And a suspicious donut hole right over my area!  

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS has been quite consistent with broad easterly flow upslope against the Olympics on Wednesday.     This is a fairly dry set up for the EPSL though.

Great. Meanwhile 6z EPS mean was like .8

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the watered down cold probably has something to do with the increased snow chances. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ICON is actually not that different for Wednesday with wrap around snow in easterly flow and temps in the low 30s.   And a suspicious donut hole right over my area!  

Wow another great run for me. 

[MossMan]

On this day 5 years ago. This was at our old place west of Smokey Point at 280ft. Was in go mode getting ready to put the place on the market (the reason for the gigantic dumpster in the yard since I was in the process of tearing down a old shed) and that long lasting event slowed me down a little but it was worth it! Such a fun event that was! Had snow on the ground through the first few days of March. 

[Doinko]

GEM is cold Thursday

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Next system much farther south this run.

Wow interesting. 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow another great run for me. 

It’s nice for Oregon.

[MossMan]

Currently 38 and drizzle. 
.04” so far on the day. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Next system much farther south this run.

The main overrunning event is still shown farther north late Friday into Saturday... but warms up faster than 00Z run so a little less snow.

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The main overrunning event is still shown farther north late Friday into Saturday... but warms up faster than 00Z run so a little less snow.

 

That’s why I deleted, not that interesting.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM... most of this snow falls on Wednesday like the other models are showing. 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6z and 12z look good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yet another great run!