PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TT-SEA]

The total snow map on the GFS shows snow amounts increasing later next weekend despite temps in the low 40s in the lowlands.   I think the resolution gets even worse after day 7 and terrain bleed becomes more exaggerated.     Meanwhile the snow depth map shows all the snow in the lowlands is gone by then.   

[MossMan]

My feelings this mornings looking at Tim’s post. Tim is the Easter Bunny. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The total snow map on the GFS shows snow amounts increasing later next weekend despite temps in the low 40s in the lowlands.   I think the resolution gets even worse after day 7 and terrain bleed becomes more exaggerated.     Meanwhile the snow depth map shows all the snow in the lowlands is gone by then.   

Wow major Pepto, that’s a great trough coming in. Big time for the foothill regions. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

My feelings this mornings looking at Tim’s post. Tim is the Easter Bunny. 

I think you might do pretty well on Wednesday and again on Friday night!    

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow major Pepto, that’s a great trough coming in. Big time for the foothill regions. 

And yet I would guess there is a better than 80% chance that there is no snow in my backyard next Sunday.   Even the pepto GFS shows that.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet I would guess there is a better than 80% chance that there is no snow in my backyard next Sunday.   Even the pepto GFS shows that.     

Shows about 8” here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim is gonna love this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run kind of favors areas more south. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Shows about 8” here.

Its really interesting (and sort of comical) watching the GFS snow total map loop evolve to pepto across the entire region as the mountain snow areas expand outward in all directions after day 7 while the same run also shows no snow on the ground across the lowlands at the same time.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its really interesting (and sort of comical) watching the GFS snow total map loop evolve to pepto across the entire region as the mountain snow areas expand outward in all directions after day 7 while the same run also shows no snow on the ground across the lowlands at the same time.   

Hmmm. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That would be enough to break the 30" barrier for the season IMBY!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kinda crazy people ignoring the trough in the mid range. SMH  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmm. 

Watching the snow total loop it looks like we are being endlessly buried... the snow depth map says otherwise.   

Quite a disconnect.    

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kinda crazy people ignoring the trough in the mid range. SMH  

Who is ignoring it?   What do you want us to do?   

I assume this is trolling because the second trough is obviously an Andrew special.    But I also assume people are more focused on the first trough when there is actually arctic air available and with moisture.  

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kinda crazy people ignoring the trough in the mid range. SMH  

I finally told my wife about next week’s big snowstorm and she said exactly the same thing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The point is we have many opportunities to be blessed. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The point is we have many opportunities to be blessed. 

Definitely.    Opportunities abound and the mountains will be buried.

[BLI snowman]

GEM handles that reinforcing energy a little bit differently and throws a big windstorm at us.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

GEM handles that reinforcing energy a little bit differently and throws a big windstorm at us.

Wow... 979mb landfall in Hoquiam.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z UKMET snow totals through Friday 4am. The Coast gets clobbered.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... 979mb landfall in Hoquiam.

A fun development. Power outages as temperatures plunge. 

[Skagit Weather]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching the snow total loop it looks like we are being endlessly buried... the snow depth map says otherwise.   

Quite a disconnect.    

Maybe you're just talking about the South Sound, but it seems pretty clear to me that the resolution on that snow depth map is terrible. It refuses to show any snow in any coastal areas and therefore blocks them out. Not saying the resolution on the snowfall map is any better, but at least it doesn't purposefully mask most of the areas where people live.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Maybe you're just talking about the South Sound, but it seems pretty clear to me that the resolution on that snow depth map is terrible. It refuses to show any snow in any coastal areas and therefore blocks them out. Not saying the resolution on the snowfall map is any better, but at least it doesn't purposefully mask most of the areas where people live.

Good points.   And I guess I was focusing on King County and the south Sound without realizing it.  

I also remember that the GFS can go the other way at times and overestimate snow depth which leads to some crazy cold temps on some runs that just aren't realistic.

[Doinko]

2011 Mark Nelsen blog post

Beyond that the “Elephant in the Weather Blog” is the looming arctic blast for next week.   My confidence in a big blast is definitely not high right now due to differences in model runs and the simple fact that were talking about an arctic front moving through the area 144 hours from this evening (late Wednesday or Wednesday night).  That is 5+ days away.   There IS lots of cold onshore flow ahead of the dry arctic air Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is another setup for snow to pretty low elevations; hills and foothills may get plenty of snow those two days.  IF wet get a nice surface low to develop in Wednesday or early Thursday along with a deep upper trough, we COULD see significant snow in the lowlands.  One way to phrase the issue would be this; everything has to line up just right in our climate to get snow in mid-winter, to get significant snow the last week of February though? Everything has to line up perfectly.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The total snow map on the GFS shows snow amounts increasing later next weekend despite temps in the low 40s in the lowlands.   I think the resolution gets even worse after day 7 and terrain bleed becomes more exaggerated.     Meanwhile the snow depth map shows all the snow in the lowlands is gone by then.   

We all know this, dude. Yet we all still post these maps as if they’re even remotely realistic. It’s never going to change.

And it’s just as much the WxBell snow map algorithms as it is erroneous BL/sfc thermodynamics on the GFS.

[T-Town]

Rainbow. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, T-Town said:

Rainbow. 

Gods country. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Gods country. 

I learned on this forum Tacoma wasn’t all gang warfare and urban decay. 

[T-Town]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I learned on this forum Tacoma wasn’t all gang warfare and urban decay. 

Mostly. But not all. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Gods country. 

Truly is with those views.   

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I learned on this forum Tacoma wasn’t all gang warfare and urban decay. 

Tacoma is WA best city. MBG

[Phil]

Can proudly state I haven’t looked at a GFS snow map (or any snow map) for this location yet in 2023. But that’s mostly because there haven’t been any snow threats to track.

But still, you’re better off looking at soundings and projected nature/rate of precip to project accumulations.

For instance, if there’s a TROWAL signature in mesoscale guidance w/ marginal sfc temps, I know to expect minimal accumulations here, even if the infallible snow maps are spitting out 6”+. My weenie psyche could come up with a dozen excuses as to why this time would be “different”, but I know to ignore them, and am almost always correct in doing so.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Mostly. But not all. 

My most pervasive memory of Tacoma was a trip to B&I circa 1987 or so. Still working through issues associated with that.

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

My most pervasive memory of Tacoma was a trip to B&I circa 1987 or so. Still working through issues associated with that.

That’s the real Tacoma. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

My most pervasive memory of Tacoma was a trip to B&I circa 1987 or so. Still working through issues associated with that.

I spent part of 2005 and 2006 at the Simpson paper mill doing consulting work... great people there.   Very stinky.  

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tacoma is WA best city. MBG

Until you go south of 6th ave roughly. West side of town near UP is also nice. 80% of Tacoma is not too great. 

[Slushy Inch]

Stronger low it looks like on euro.

[snow_wizard]

It's become pretty apparent this event won't be as huge cold wise as model runs a few days ago had indicated, but it will still get unseasonably cold and there will be lowland snow.  It is a pretty big deal how long the models keep 850s well below normal, however.  Looking highly likely there will be another solid cold shot as we get to March.  We might even see another round of much below normal temps in early March by the looks of things.  CPC analogs at day 11 have some very interesting time periods represented including late February 1971.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Kinda crazy people ignoring the trough in the mid range. SMH  

I'm starting to look at that one.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

NWS mentioned 10% chance or less of Seattle area having 1 inch or more of snowfall. If this is true  That is pretty lame.

 

Their lack of experience is showing in a very big way.  No way to know that with such certainty.  They probably trust the models too much.