PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TT-SEA]

Portland scores!    This comes Wednesday evening.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through early Wednesday morning and temps at 4 a.m. on Wednesday.

Looks good because euro is always 2-4 degrees warm biased for here at least. And that is like 99% of the time I've noticed. 

[Doinko]

Now the Euro shows it as well

 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows high temps around 40 in Seattle on Wednesday.  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Portland scores!    This comes Wednesday evening.

Wow. GFS was showing something like this and now it looks like all the models are doing it too.

[MossMan]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks good because euro is always 2-4 degrees warm biased for here at least. And that is like 99% of the time I've noticed. 

Yeah it was at least 4 degrees too warm for most of the December 2022 event here. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks good because euro is always 2-4 degrees warm biased for here at least. And that is like 99% of the time I've noticed. 

Maybe for your area with cold air damming?  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Now the Euro shows it as well

 

Big trend North. Not enough for Seattle.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows high temps around 40 in Seattle on Wednesday.  

F me

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Thursday.   I am honestly not expecting much at all in my area.   The set up is just wrong for King County.     

[TT-SEA]

I am seriously cheering for the ECMWF to be right about Portland.    That would be so fun to watch evolve on here.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Thursday.   I am honestly not expecting much at all in my area.   The set up is just wrong for King County.     

Great thing is if it snows it'll probably stick around on Thursday. Really nice to see the positive trends for here on basically every model.

Hoping a good convergence zone can bury the Sound too

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Thursday.   I am honestly not expecting much at all in my area.   The set up is just wrong for King County.     

I’m on the purple/Pepto border 

[snow_wizard]

We'll see I guess.  Just not convinced based on past history.  

[Doinko]

Snow cover and east wind keeps Portland cold on Thursday

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Thursday.   I am honestly not expecting much at all in my area.   The set up is just wrong for King County.     

Better chance with next one?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doinko said:

Great thing is if it snows it'll probably stick around on Thursday. Really nice to see the positive trends for here on basically every model.

Hoping a good convergence zone can bury the Sound too

Yeah... really feeling good about Portland but this is the opposite of a c-zone situation for us up here.    That is not going to happen since there is no strong westerly flow with the entire trough sinking southward.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Thursday.   I am honestly not expecting much at all in my area.   The set up is just wrong for King County.     

These Euro snow maps are comical. If I remember correctly they looked much like this in December until a day or two out, then they started increasing totals. I was in the grey and ended up with 7” on the 20th. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

These Euro snow maps are comical. If I remember correctly they looked much like this in December until a day or two out, then they started increasing totals. I was in the grey and ended up with 7” on the 20th. 

Doesn't always happen though.   This event starts in about 48 hours.

The December 20th event was a rapidly forming low that raced eastward.   Much more explosive.

[Weiner Warrior]

EURO is garbage... GFS is King

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am seriously cheering for the ECMWF to be right about Portland.    That would be so fun to watch evolve on here.

Deformation anticipation! That thing is gonna wobble around quite a bit and timing will need to be just right. If it sets up during the day on Wednesday it’s gonna be tough to get much going on the valley floor.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Friday...

[Slushy Inch]

Maybe a little more of a northern track, and more GOA ridging.

[snow_wizard]

Thursday and Thursday night are a bit colder on the ECMWF vs the 12z at least.

I will say it would be awesome to see Portland score out of this event.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Friday...

Not going to be much of an overrunning event with an airmass that pathetic.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Maybe a little more of a northern track, and more GOA ridging.

That's way better actually.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Not going to be much of an overrunning event with an airmass that pathetic.

It gets cold Friday night.  The GFS was decently cold for the snow at that time.

[thickhog]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Thursday.   I am honestly not expecting much at all in my area.   The set up is just wrong for King County.     

Nobody in the Portland area say one gotdam word to any living soul about this

[snow_wizard]

A lot of weenieism going on tonight.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Deformation anticipation! That thing is gonna wobble around quite a bit and timing will need to be just right. If it sets up during the day on Wednesday it’s gonna be tough to get much going on the valley floor.

Any similarities to past events with this one?

[TT-SEA]

A little overrunning snow on Saturday morning... not nearly as nice as going into the cold of course since its warming up quickly on Saturday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not going to be much of an overrunning event with an airmass that pathetic.

Pretty cold for late February! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Portland scores!    This comes Wednesday evening.

Looks like someone will score between Everett and Eugene. 

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Nobody in the PDX metro area say one gotdam word to any living soul about this

I just sent text messages to all my portland friends to go stock up on shovels. Lol

[snow_wizard]

Snow Saturday morning on the ECMWF as well.  Nothing better than Saturday morning snowfall.

[Sandy rocks]

Thanks to you Washingtonians that applaud us Oregonians getting some snow. I have had four slushy inches and I live in the foothills! Have some pity we deserve some too and not just a nasty ice storm. I know some of you want it all but as we all were taught in kindergarten, we need to share.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty cold for late February! 

Compared to previous expectations though.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of weenieism going on tonight.

Getting old. Has honestly kept me away from the forum a bunch over the last few weeks. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks like someone will score between Everett and Eugene. 

It's just puzzling that people are taking model details on snowfall so literally at this point.  This week is going to be cold and there will be lowland snow.  I'm happy about that.

[Slushy Inch]

Me telling myself it will be fine because for the 30th run in a row drunk crackhead GEFS shows a pink map.