PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty easy to see why things are trending moister…

yesturday:

today:

you called it!! Mr Right  

[MossMan]

The Euro snow map will get brighter over the next few days. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Sounds like Tom Sizemore might be knocking on the door too.

I could have sworn he died years ago

[MWG]

WWA for above 1500'

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

I could have sworn he died years ago

He’s always looked a bit deathly.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think just some added lift there with the closer access to the gorge air as it interacts with the developing system offshore. The exact placement of which will play a big part in where that particular deformation band develops, as it's generally been modeled as a pretty narrow 10-25 mile wide swath of intense stuff for the lowlands.

The likely slower-than-modeled cold air advection should be a bit of a benefit for places closer to the gorge. It doesn't look like a mountain wave type gradient with this system so I don't see a ton of downslope being likely.

Do you think I'm in a decent spot for accumulations? Hoping it's not a 2/9/2019 repeat

[MossMan]

Everybody poops

Everybody pees

Everybody dies 

Not everyone likes snow

But I do 

 

[OysterPrintout]

What could possibly go wrong in the next 48 hours of model riding? This is LOCKED IN*

[TT-SEA]

Not sure its too different... but total snow through Friday evening per 12Z ECMWF.

There have been several events this winter when I knew to have the snowblower gassed up and ready to go... this is not one of those events for my area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure its too different... but total snow through Friday evening per 12Z ECMWF.

There have been several events this winter when I knew to have the snowblower gassed up and ready to go... this is not one of those events for my area.

Seems like a pretty defined cutoff for lowland snow. 

[TT-SEA]

For those in the forecast contest... highs from Wednesday through Friday per ECMWF.   The cold highs on Thursday are even more impressive considering it shows a decent amount of sun that day.

 

[Weiner Warrior]

EURO temps are trending cooler over the weekend too!

[The Cats Meow]

I think for Western Washington this is going to be a non event.

Highs near 40 during the day.  Maybe some sloppy rain/snow mix in heavier showers with little to no accumulation except for the favored areas and those places around 500'-1000'.

Those who get excited for lows in the 20's might get a few of those days.

Probably will be very unsettled with showers rotating in off the ocean.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports! 

Is there a way to see those graffics without Facebook?

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

What could possibly go wrong in the next 48 hours of model riding? This is LOCKED IN*

48? That’s only Tuesday morning.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is totally dry through Saturday now... warm front precip is still to the north of WA that evening.    But temps warm considerably that day compared to the previous 3 days.

[The Cats Meow]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is totally dry through Saturday now... warm front precip is still to the north of WA that evening.    But temps warm considerably that day compared to the previous 3 days.

I have a feeling this is going to be a  nothing burger event after a week of teeth gnashing and watering down what could have been epic.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is there a way to see those graffics without Facebook?

 

[TT-SEA]

Can't remember ever seeing arctic air vanish so quickly... the first map is Thursday afternoon and the second map is 48 hours later on Saturday afternoon per ECMWF.

[MossMan]

We have lost Hour364! 

[RentonHill]

hm

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can't remember ever seeing arctic air vanish so quickly... the first map is Thursday afternoon and the second map is 48 hours later on Saturday afternoon per ECMWF.

Late February.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

I think for Western Washington this is going to be a non event.

Highs near 40 during the day.  Maybe some sloppy rain/snow mix in heavier showers with little to no accumulation except for the favored areas and those places around 500'-1000'.

Those who get excited for lows in the 20's might get a few of those days.

Probably will be very unsettled with showers rotating in off the ocean.

You are making this look like every day will be 40 this week. I hate posting like this. Are you talking about one particular area? Many areas in western Washington will be much colder than 40 during the day for part of the week. The bremerton, Shelton and Bellingham south to Everett will be 30-36 Wed-Friday.  Western Washington is a large area, yes downtown Seattle and that area will probably be a non event.  SW Washington and up towards Olympia will do good. 

[MossMan]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You are making this look like every day will be 40 this week. I hate posting like this. Are you talking about one particular area? Many areas in western Washington will be much colder than 40 during the day for part of the week. The bremerton, Shelton and Bellingham south to Everett will be 30-36 Wed-Friday.  Western Washington is a large area, yes downtown Seattle and that area will probably be a non event.  SW Washington and up towards Olympia will do good. 

Yeah it will not be hitting the 40’s in my area next week. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

The arctic air doesn’t disappear. It basically just gets modified on top of us which mitigates the anomalies. It’s almost March by then.

[The Cats Meow]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We have lost Hour364! 

No no no.....hour 364 still looks good.  It always looks good

[Weiner Warrior]

All in all this is going to be a great week. A fee chances of snow. Fun to track real time

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a quick hitting c-zone on Sunday morning... which is actually far more likely to bring snow to my area than the mid-week trough.   But this is followed by a SW wind and temps in the mid 40s in my area that same afternoon so still might not be worth having the snowblower ready.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The arctic air doesn’t disappear. It basically just gets modified on top of us which mitigates the anomalies. It’s almost March by then.

We should all be disappointed a modified arctic blast only moderates to 10 degrees below normal at the surface by day 4-5.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For those in the forecast contest... highs from Wednesday through Friday per ECMWF.   The cold highs on Thursday are even more impressive considering it shows a decent amount of sun that day.

 

On Thursday it shows 39 in bremerton and 37 off the coast on destruction island lol. I really wish the euro didn't have such a warm biased on the temp outputs.  With all these troughs it's been way to warm for the most part.  December it was running as much as 7 degrees to warm for highs for many areas.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The arctic air doesn’t disappear. It basically just gets modified on top of us which mitigates the anomalies. It’s almost March by then.

Man for this time of year it's a killer set up for the Area.  Everyone has a shot and I like that.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We should all be disappointed a modified arctic blast only moderates to 10 degrees below normal at the surface by day 4-5.

No one is telling anyone what to like or not like.   Except for a few people who seem to demand that everyone should love below normal temps and snow at 1,500 feet as much as accumulating snow in the lowlands with arctic air.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Man for this time of year it's a killer set up for the Area.  Everyone has a shot and I like that.

I’m starting to take note of the potential down here on Wednesday and Thursday. Although 96 hours is still a long time in model world with this kind of setup. I always get a little antsy if things looks absolutely perfect for us four days out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

hm

Finally getting up to the property next weekend.  Friday through Monday. Great place to rest my brain. Looks like some fun weather next weekend up there.  From what I can tell there's still 2.5 feet on the ground at my place.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Idk how we missed this yesterday lol

 

 

 

Yeah... its my least favorite pattern in the winter.     It results in perpetual rain and wind at my house.   But it happens every year and its good for boosting our rainfall totals.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m starting to take note of the potential down here on Wednesday and Thursday. Although 96 hours is still a long time in model world with this kind of setup. I always get a little antsy if things looks absolutely perfect for us four days out.

Yup, I was worried when I was looking at major dumping snows here last week for Wed. Never want to be in the sweet spot that far out.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Cascadia_Wx]

In the mean time, hit a low of 37 this morning and now it’s cloudy and 45. Weather has been kind of blah the last few days, and seems like temps have been exceeding guidance quite a bit (Mark forecast a high of 45 for PDX yesterday just a day in advance, it ended up eight degrees warmer than that) We also completely lost the cold nights after Thursday. This is going to water down February’s cold numbers compared to what they could have been, but the last week of the month should still really ice that monthly average.

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It's over.

(Worth noting that the WRF also missed 1/10/17 hours out-- analog!????)

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

It's over.

(Worth noting that the WRF also missed 1/10/17 hours out-- analog!????)

The only guarantee with the WRF is that it will always be wrong with deformation zones.   This is a universal truth.