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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Actually nice to see both the RGEM and ICON return to the idea of a fairly robust deformation band.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Icon is just solid. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Ugh is there anything more annoying than hitting the “ECMWF Wave” model instead of GFS or ECMWF on wx bell on your phone 

OMG.   I literally do that 5 times a day!   So frustrating.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ICON and GFS from WB...

icon-all-washington-total_snow_10to1-7240000.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7164400.png

Talk about rock solid. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sometimes models under-do wrap around moisture and northern spread of moisture. But the low pressure is also strongest on the GFS.

Underestimating nothern extent of wrap around is a common issue with all of the models it seems.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We should start to call it the reacharound moisture and mother nature would be piqued.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No one is saying next week will be as active as this week. The trough early next week isn’t nearly as cold and a lot of the energy is going into Northern California. There will probably be a couple days where we have a chilly airmass and clear skies. 50/25 type days in the willamette valley. Very chilly for this time of year. The trough late next week is shown on some runs to be very impressive.

However, the models do show several

pulses of moisture moving into the pnw next week with low snow levels. 

I'd guess you will get between 8-14 inches. My prediction,   13 inches of snowfall between Monday night and Thursday morning.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Up to .17” of heavy drizzle on the day. 
40 degrees. 
A good day for Kongs, hairy cow ears, and movies. Going to forego doing any snow prep now since the Euro says nothing more than a little grey phantom snow and temps in the 40’s. Hopefully I can at least replenish my desk snow mound. It has taken a big hit over the last few hours. 

4D704BC2-B0E6-4356-8264-FA9F839A1444.jpeg

34034AA4-AFF9-4DAE-BFDE-8B9CFA3B368F.jpeg

C265B5B2-3C6B-45AF-896D-604B4C346E8A.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd guess you will get between 8-14 inches. My prediction,   13 inches of snowfall between Monday night and Thursday morning.

What is your prediction for my backyard?   You have proven to be better at predicting that than me on numerous occasions!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It looks nice but plenty of the snow actually falls at temps a bit too warm. Kuchera is a good bit more modest. Would of course not complain about this outcome down here. 

This setup also looks quite promising for upslope enhancement against the eastern slopes of the coast range. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png

image.thumb.png.3bcc542de9b07761e333961d3d281834.png

image.thumb.png.099f7b41a5607f9648c8f2134f2d70ba.png

I don't think 2-4 inches is a bad estimate for this far out-- potentially relatively widespread as well across the metro.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to .17” of heavy drizzle on the day. 
40 degrees. 
A good day for Kongs, hairy cow ears, and movies. Going to forego doing any snow prep now since the Euro says nothing more than a little grey phantom snow and temps in the 40’s. Hopefully I can at least replenish my desk snow mound. It has taken a big hit over the last few hours. 

4D704BC2-B0E6-4356-8264-FA9F839A1444.jpeg

34034AA4-AFF9-4DAE-BFDE-8B9CFA3B368F.jpeg

C265B5B2-3C6B-45AF-896D-604B4C346E8A.jpeg

It's coming Randy!   You will use the plow this week.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Updated winter storm watch. 

CCBC4211-3756-41BF-9B2C-E9A0EA0AD026.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

It's also relative. Normal is pushing the low 50s by the beginning of March, so it doesn't take "cold" weather for it to be solidly below normal. The next few weeks look like a very persistently cooler than average pattern.

Yes that's exactly it. Highs of 40 and lows of 30 may be anomalously cool for this time of year but I wouldn't call it a solid stretch of winter aside from the few days later this week and likely another few days in early March.

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25 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It looks nice but plenty of the snow actually falls at temps a bit too warm. Kuchera is a good bit more modest. Would of course not complain about this outcome down here. 

This setup also looks quite promising for upslope enhancement against the eastern slopes of the coast range. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png

image.thumb.png.3bcc542de9b07761e333961d3d281834.png

image.thumb.png.099f7b41a5607f9648c8f2134f2d70ba.png

Have been in Forest Grove all weekend; they should do very well.

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Oh dang. And here I thought this run was going to be sober. In all fairness the trough a week out looks cold and dryish on this run. 

479D86CD-4BEE-4F7F-8AA7-4AB378A5ADB4.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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@TT-SEA Hey it’s your beastly BC mode. 516 thickness to PDX at this point. No big deal for March. 

701E335D-A447-4343-8729-5E81D06CD0AE.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Oh dear. 

A927B542-9400-4812-BF64-274976030194.png

F633DE62-9409-4823-BCB1-8AD429533690.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@TT-SEA Hey it’s your beastly BC mode. 516 thickness to PDX at this point. No big deal for March. 

701E335D-A447-4343-8729-5E81D06CD0AE.png

There it is!    Too bad its the 18Z GFS and not the EPS.    Won't be there on the next run.  :(

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There it is!    Too bad its the 18Z GFS and not the EPS.    Won't be there on the next run.  :(

It’s been pretty consistent. And btw you are doing it again… 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s been pretty consistent. And btw you are doing it again… 

Having a different opinion on the models than whatever you are selling today?  Sorry about that.   I need to see it on the EPS.   That goes for ridging too.    But you are more than welcome to tell us your thoughts.   Collaboration is a good thing!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Having a different opinion on the models than whatever you are selling today?  Sorry about that.   I need to see it on the EPS.   That goes for ridging too.    But you are more than welcome to tell us your thoughts as well.   

Just pointing out you are doing exactly what you got called out for. That is all. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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@TT-SEAyou must understand. I have engaged JIM Mode. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just pointing out you are doing exactly what you got called out for. That is all. 

What?  Having a different opinion?

If the GFS was showing massive ridge in the long range and the EPS was showing a trough... I wouldn't believe that ridge regardless of what I wanted.    I am pretty simple.   I follow the EPS in the long range and that works out the majority of the time.    It's the best odds... by far.

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