PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Requiem]

Actually nice to see both the RGEM and ICON return to the idea of a fairly robust deformation band.

[High Desert Mat?]

Looks to be pretty chilly over here mid week with temps struggling to hit 20 during the day. That being said the precip looks anemic and I’ll be lucky to see more than an inch. A drawback for living in a desert. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon is just solid. 

[RentonHill]

Ugh is there anything more annoying than hitting the “ECMWF Wave” model instead of GFS or ECMWF on wx bell on your phone 

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Ugh is there anything more annoying than hitting the “ECMWF Wave” model instead of GFS or ECMWF on wx bell on your phone 

Andrew saying something is “rock solid”

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Ugh is there anything more annoying than hitting the “ECMWF Wave” model instead of GFS or ECMWF on wx bell on your phone 

OMG.   I literally do that 5 times a day!   So frustrating.   

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAM actually has some snow for PDX Wednesday AM too. Temps are marginal though, 31-33F across the metro area. 

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Ugh is there anything more annoying than hitting the “ECMWF Wave” model instead of GFS or ECMWF on wx bell on your phone 

Lol yes

[Slushy Inch]

GFS still snowy for puget sound and PDX. Minus south sound.

[Doinko]

[TT-SEA]

18Z ICON and GFS from WB...

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ICON and GFS from WB...

the bias is strong with the donut holes over the south sound a lot this winter.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ICON and GFS from WB...

Sometimes models under-do wrap around moisture and northern spread of moisture. But the low pressure is also strongest on the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ICON and GFS from WB...

Talk about rock solid. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sometimes models under-do wrap around moisture and northern spread of moisture. But the low pressure is also strongest on the GFS.

Underestimating nothern extent of wrap around is a common issue with all of the models it seems.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We should start to call it the reacharound moisture and mother nature would be piqued.

[Anti Marine Layer]

White precipitation matters.

[NWbyNW]

Moist and wet.

 

[MWG]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon is just solid. 

 

[Perturbed Member]

It looks nice but plenty of the snow actually falls at temps a bit too warm. Kuchera is a good bit more modest. Would of course not complain about this outcome down here. 

This setup also looks quite promising for upslope enhancement against the eastern slopes of the coast range. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No one is saying next week will be as active as this week. The trough early next week isn’t nearly as cold and a lot of the energy is going into Northern California. There will probably be a couple days where we have a chilly airmass and clear skies. 50/25 type days in the willamette valley. Very chilly for this time of year. The trough late next week is shown on some runs to be very impressive.

However, the models do show several

pulses of moisture moving into the pnw next week with low snow levels. 

I'd guess you will get between 8-14 inches. My prediction,   13 inches of snowfall between Monday night and Thursday morning.

[MossMan]

Up to .17” of heavy drizzle on the day. 
40 degrees. 
A good day for Kongs, hairy cow ears, and movies. Going to forego doing any snow prep now since the Euro says nothing more than a little grey phantom snow and temps in the 40’s. Hopefully I can at least replenish my desk snow mound. It has taken a big hit over the last few hours. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd guess you will get between 8-14 inches. My prediction,   13 inches of snowfall between Monday night and Thursday morning.

What is your prediction for my backyard?   You have proven to be better at predicting that than me on numerous occasions!

[Requiem]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It looks nice but plenty of the snow actually falls at temps a bit too warm. Kuchera is a good bit more modest. Would of course not complain about this outcome down here. 

This setup also looks quite promising for upslope enhancement against the eastern slopes of the coast range. 

I don't think 2-4 inches is a bad estimate for this far out-- potentially relatively widespread as well across the metro.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up to .17” of heavy drizzle on the day. 
40 degrees. 
A good day for Kongs, hairy cow ears, and movies. Going to forego doing any snow prep now since the Euro says nothing more than a little grey phantom snow and temps in the 40’s. Hopefully I can at least replenish my desk snow mound. It has taken a big hit over the last few hours. 

It's coming Randy!   You will use the plow this week.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Updated winter storm watch. 

Edited February 19, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Deweydog]

Thicknesses get to 512dm on the 18z. Back to 2011ish territory.

[westcoastexpat]

5 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

It's also relative. Normal is pushing the low 50s by the beginning of March, so it doesn't take "cold" weather for it to be solidly below normal. The next few weeks look like a very persistently cooler than average pattern.

Yes that's exactly it. Highs of 40 and lows of 30 may be anomalously cool for this time of year but I wouldn't call it a solid stretch of winter aside from the few days later this week and likely another few days in early March.

[thickhog]

25 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It looks nice but plenty of the snow actually falls at temps a bit too warm. Kuchera is a good bit more modest. Would of course not complain about this outcome down here. 

This setup also looks quite promising for upslope enhancement against the eastern slopes of the coast range. 

Have been in Forest Grove all weekend; they should do very well.

[Front Ranger]

Portland's turn.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh dang. And here I thought this run was going to be sober. In all fairness the trough a week out looks cold and dryish on this run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@TT-SEA Hey it’s your beastly BC mode. 516 thickness to PDX at this point. No big deal for March. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh dear. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@TT-SEA Hey it’s your beastly BC mode. 516 thickness to PDX at this point. No big deal for March. 

There it is!    Too bad its the 18Z GFS and not the EPS.    Won't be there on the next run.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There it is!    Too bad its the 18Z GFS and not the EPS.    Won't be there on the next run.  

It’s been pretty consistent. And btw you are doing it again… 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s been pretty consistent. And btw you are doing it again… 

Having a different opinion on the models than whatever you are selling today?  Sorry about that.   I need to see it on the EPS.   That goes for ridging too.    But you are more than welcome to tell us your thoughts.   Collaboration is a good thing!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Having a different opinion on the models than whatever you are selling today?  Sorry about that.   I need to see it on the EPS.   That goes for ridging too.    But you are more than welcome to tell us your thoughts as well.   

Just pointing out you are doing exactly what you got called out for. That is all. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@TT-SEAyou must understand. I have engaged JIM Mode. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just pointing out you are doing exactly what you got called out for. That is all. 

What?  Having a different opinion?

If the GFS was showing massive ridge in the long range and the EPS was showing a trough... I wouldn't believe that ridge regardless of what I wanted.    I am pretty simple.   I follow the EPS in the long range and that works out the majority of the time.    It's the best odds... by far.

[The Cats Meow]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@TT-SEAyou must understand. I have engaged JIM Mode. 

I like you in Jim mode.  It's awesome.

Rock solid!  Tickle me pink.

Tabulate tabulate tabulate.