PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

GFS looks great for here. Slightly worse for WW though

Wow. Almost a foot here. 
 

BEAST TROUGH

REAL DEAL

ATCTIC HOUNDS

BIG DAWGS

GFS ALERT

[joelgombiner]

Windy on the east slopes of the Cascades too. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Uh oh! 00z EURO did not initialize on Pivotal. Server looks fine though....

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to be really interested to see if something comes out of the blue for some snow Wednesday morning.  As I've said many times these late season cold events almost always have snow in the Central Puget Sound region.  At this point the GFS in particular shows moisture rotating into the Puget Sound region in an easterly flow aloft early Wednesday morning.  Exactly the same scenario that brought the surprise snow for some last Feb.

Very possible we will have to wait to see much snow in the Seattle area though.  I really like the chances for another significant cold wave in early March.  Maybe that one will deliver if this one doesn't.

[Gradient Keeper]

The hi-res is running though....

[joelgombiner]

High pressure building over the Pacific. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Uh oh! 00z EURO did not initialize on Pivotal. Server looks fine though....

It started on Weatherbell

[snow_wizard]

I hope Portland does better on the ECMWF than the GFS.  Can't imagine them not getting in something this winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

Stuck at HR 12 on Pivotal.... Exciting.

[Perturbed Member]

Is the 00z Euro stuck on weatherbell or is it just Pivotal that's messed up?

[joelgombiner]

Cold air moving into place... (from a few days ago). Yakutsk up to -16.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I hope Portland does better on the ECMWF than the GFS.  Can't imagine them not getting in something this winter.

Yeah gfs didn't look good at all 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah gfs didn't look good at all 

It looked fine here, 2-4"

[SouthHillFrosty]

Euro looks great for PDX

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Weiner Warrior]

EURO showing 8" for Seattle?

[Doinko]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

What are temps like throughout the day Wednesday?

[Weiner Warrior]

Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

EURO showing 8" for Seattle?

Ohhh wait, that's .08".... ugh

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty great Euro run for all of western OR. Seems like the euro may have locked on.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Pretty great Euro run for all of western OR. Seems like the euro may have locked on.

Seems like there's less phantom snow and more of it falls at 30-32 degrees which is great to see

[Doinko]

Cold highs

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[snow_wizard]

Looks like SEA could put up a -18 or so departure on Thursday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC is a full-on Western Oregon special.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Cold highs

 

The question is what will the temps be like on Wednesday when the moisture is present.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The question is what will the temps be like on Wednesday when the moisture is present.

Looks good here!

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Could we get the onshore and offshore flow snow? That would be a fun thing.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of a bummer that the weekend snow threat looks dead now.  Mid levels warm too much by the time moisture arrives.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Kind of a bummer that the weekend snow threat looks dead now.  Mid levels warm too much by the time moisture arrives.

Wdym? @snow_wizard

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another insane GFS run 

Would be nice to see some snow up here though.

[Weiner Warrior]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wdym? @snow_wizard

YES!!! There is a God

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Would be nice to see some snow up here though.

How much have y'all had up there so far? We've had 1.5" on the grass.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wdym? @snow_wizard

Looks like they crash again with evap cooling.  Wasn't expecting that.

[Doinko]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

How much have y'all had up there so far? We've had 0.5"

I thought you had 1.5" last week?

[Doinko]

Quick inch at PDX. Temps look fine, in the 29-33 range

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

How much have y'all had up there so far? We've had 0.5" on the grass.

Um most locations are around 1-2in max that is spread through 2-3 different “events”

Edited February 20, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the weekend snow is still alive after all.  Temps drop back to freezing Sunday night after it as well.  A very respectable cold snap coming up.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Another possibly opportunity to drop .2in again

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Um most locations are around 1-2in max spread through 2-3 different “events”

We've done ok, but not fantastic.   I have seen it snow and stay on the ground for a while several times this winter so not terrible.

I know a few places have done really well though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I thought you had 1.5" last week?

I see you’ve met Tiger