PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is even colder... 30 and 36 on those days.

 

Very impressive so late in the year with no snow 

[WeatherGeek2022]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is even colder... 30 and 36 on those days.

 

same high 5 days in a row

[TT-SEA]

Just now, WeatherGeek2022 said:

same high 5 days in a row

That is just blended mean stuff in the long range... basically that tells us its going to be significantly colder than normal.  

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is just blended mean stuff in the long range... basically that tells us its going to be significantly colder than normal.  

march madness incoming 

[Meatyorologist]

47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still a little bummed that Seattle folks aren't more excited about the coming pattern.  I get it though.

I am!

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM says Nothing in PDX.... I'm glad this isn't the Euro at least. 

[Meatyorologist]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is even colder... 30 and 36 on those days.

 

Wow. That's the EPS mean??! That is awesome to see this late in the winter, especially without the aid of existing snowcover. If we were in January right now, the extended would be looking pretty silly too.

[Meatyorologist]

Absolute BEAST of a maritime trough on the 00z GFS fantasy range.

[HuskyMaestro]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is a legit cold pattern we're getting into.  I like cold pure and simple.  It still seems likely we will get snow before all is said and done anyway.  This coming pattern is worlds better than the typical late winter crap we normally see.

Even with the cold pattern coming up, it's a bit demoralizing when Lakewood/Tacoma/Puyallup has had a good amount of cold air to work with this winter and yet it was just run-of-the-mill 0.5 - 1" snow that didn't disrupt any schools or work. Don't remember getting this unlucky with the snowhole over our area even if it's the Swamp. Still got hope that late February or March would be something to remember though. Much prefer snow over dry frosty mornings. 

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow. That's the EPS mean??! That is awesome to see this late in the winter, especially without the aid of existing snowcover. If we were in January right now, the extended would be looking pretty silly too.

I wonder if PDX will manage a subfreezing high if we get a couple of inches of snow.

[HuskyMaestro]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... I understand you like cold pure and simple.   But after 20 years on here you should know most people get really excited about snow.   Particularly snow going into cold.   I like 55-degree sun in January but it doesn't bum me out that people on here don't get excited about that. 

My tropical carnivorous plants sure appreciated some of the 50-degree sun we've had, even if it's a bit cold by the windowsill. I actually have to rely a bit of those sunny winter days to keep these plants happy since they don't go dormant. But they've had their fill already so go cold and snow! 

[Meatyorologist]

The NAM and the ICON both handle the low weird, you can throw those solutions out. The GFS is most surely too aggressive by a long shot with the advancement of Arctic air (that issue seems to have gotten worse in its recent update for some reason.) The CMC, rather, is probably too anemic in this regard.

The Euro, to the surprise of just about no one, is likely on point in terms of pattern progression, low placement, temperatures, and precip distribution; although it's probably a fair amount too dry on the transition Wednesday into Thursday. Precip coverage will likely be much higher than modeled, and precip intensity/snowfall depth will be pretty heterogenous, even in areas that will benefit from frontogenesis more than convection, simply because this airmass has some #meat to it (something I in particular quite approve of), and there will be surprises hiding about. I wouldn't be surprised if many in the region wake up Thursday to a wacky, confusing commute, driving in and out of areas with locally intense snowfall, going from bare to pushing half a foot in a matter of a few miles, without much elevation change or change in proximity to large bodies of warm water.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The NAM and the ICON both handle the low weird, you can throw those solutions out. The GFS is most surely too aggressive by a long shot with the advancement of Arctic air (that issue seems to have gotten worse in its recent update for some reason.) The CMC, rather, is probably too anemic in this regard.

The Euro, to the surprise of just about no one, is likely on point in terms of pattern progression, low placement, temperatures, and precip distribution; although it's probably a fair amount too dry on the transition Wednesday into Thursday. Precip coverage will likely be much higher than modeled, and precip intensity/snowfall depth will be pretty heterogenous, even in areas that will benefit from frontogenesis more than convection, simply because this airmass has some #meat to it (something I in particular quite approve of), and there will be surprises hiding about. I wouldn't be surprised if many in the region wake up Thursday to a wacky, confusing commute, driving in and out of areas with locally intense snowfall, going from bare to pushing half a foot in a matter of a few miles, without much elevation change or change in proximity to large bodies of warm water.

Would be amazing if we could manage something over 4", but I'd definitely be happy with 1-4

[Meatyorologist]

I can't speak for the majority of the Sound, but my winter experience thus far has been a small amount of very high quality snow. All of it has stuck around for at least a few days, and 2"; nearly half of this winter's cumulative bounty; fell during a highly dynamic transition while below freezing, and ushered in a 26/15 spread the following day.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Would be amazing if we could manage something over 4", but I'd definitely be happy with 1-4

As is usually the case, we will spend hours of our lives agonizing over whether we will recieve one, two, five, or however many inches of snow. But when the first flakes start falling, and the branches get that first thin layer of dust, the light from the streetlamps sparkling all over the brand new transformed world, now separate from the monotony of daily life, we will all remember that it doesn't really matter. Half an inch is all it takes. The jokes write themselves, I know, but I mean the message. Even just half an inch of snow absolutely transforms the world, especially if it accumulates on pavement.

[Doinko]

RGEM is good for the valley, bad for PDX

 

[Requiem]

RGEM is terrible for the Portland area *but* still keeps that band of heavy snow for some area of the valley into Thursday. It's good we have the EURO on our side, but it'd be nice to get some mesoscales to cooperate.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hmmmm... That is much more generous for the Sound than I initially expected. This model is usually wayyyyy too dry.

Upon closer inspection, it all falls when temps are between 34-36F. And after that it dries out fast.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Hmmmm... That is much more generous for the Sound than I initially expected. This model is usually wayyyyy too dry.

Upon closer inspection, it all falls when temps are between 34-36F. And after that it dries out fast.

Yea… it’s super generous for the PS  and not at all for the PDX. I expect that to switch in future runs. I really think PDX gets 2-4in

[Perturbed Member]

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea… it’s super generous for the PS  and not at all for the PDX. I expect that to switch in future runs. I really think PDX gets 2-4in

As long as the Euro continues to be locked in I think PDX will be ok. 

[Perturbed Member]

06z GFS so far. Very snowy for west and south metro like the 00z GFS. Overall western OR does well here. 

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow. That's the EPS mean??! That is awesome to see this late in the winter, especially without the aid of existing snowcover. If we were in January right now, the extended would be looking pretty silly too.

If it were January it would be showing endless 50s and 60s.  

[Meatyorologist]

57 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea… it’s super generous for the PS  and not at all for the PDX. I expect that to switch in future runs. I really think PDX gets 2-4in

The Portland area is a tough call, but betting against the Euro is a fool's game usually.

Somewhere in the Willamette is about to get slammed. This will be an OR centric event, with some localized winners in the Evergreen state was well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Does anybody have the WB snow map for the overnight GFS?

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Does anybody have the WB snow map for the overnight GFS?

Though Thursday night:

Through Day 10:

(Almost) Full run including clown range:

[smerfylicious]

So maybe I get a dusting, or 4 inches.

I'll take my odds then, pretty lame winter for me when it comes to snow. WA Cascades could really use the snowpack boost though so I shouldn't complain completely.

Would like to see the snowpack levels over 100% average since it's a La Nina still, but we're sitting at 80-90% in a lot of areas. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow Eugene somehow hit freezing again this morning. 

[YahRaEl]

Gonna be pretty gusty across the Puget Sound Region later this evening/night gust of 30-50 mph with an outside chance of 55 mph particularly around San Juan Islands and Whidbey/Camino Islands, maybe Upper Browns Point Tacoma.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What the GFS is showing Sunday morning looks like some dangerously low snow levels. Especially north of Seattle. 

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow Eugene somehow hit freezing again this morning. 

Its been raining in the Seattle area since Saturday and will probably go through tomorrow morning.    But the the ECMWF shows a 5-day dry period so gets balanced out pretty quickly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its been raining in the Seattle area since Saturday and will probably go through tomorrow morning.    But the the ECMWF shows a 5-day dry period so gets balanced out pretty quickly.

Not really balancing out down here. But if Eugene pulls off some lows in the teens this week as predicted they may score a sub 30 monthly average minimum.

Edited February 20, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

06Z ECMWF still looks really good down south.   

Interestingly the northern King County snow happens Tuesday morning in a little c-zone but that is well before the cold air arrives and its back into the 40s on Tuesday afternoon.     The ECMWF shows almost no precip up here after the cold air slowly bleeds in by Wednesday morning.

Most of the snow shown in western OR happens after dark on Wednesday evening so the timing is favorable.  

[TT-SEA]

One note for western WA... every single run of the ECMWF shows a westward moving band of precip from the north side of Seattle up through Whidbey Island early Wednesday morning.   This should be snow by that point.   There should be a little snow falling that morning around Everett with decent accumulation towards Port Angeles and Port Townsend.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Medford s average minimum so far this month is 28.9, pretty impressive. Overall they are running a -2.1 departure through yesterday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

One note for western WA... every single run of the ECMWF shows a westward moving band of precip from the north side of Seattle up through Whidbey Island early Wednesday morning.   This should be snow by that point.   There should be a little snow falling that morning around Everett with decent accumulation towards Port Angeles and Port Townsend.  

Looks like quite a bit of snow falling here in that 3 hour period. Nearly .2” of precip. 

[AlTahoe]

It's good to know that 1950's cold can still happen!

 

Cold has been the story this winter. For KRNO, the average
  temperature (takes into account highs and lows) for the start 
  of November through yesterday, 2/19, is the coldest since the 
  winter of 2004-05. For Tahoe City, using the same climate stats,
  it's the coldest period since the early 1950s! Yet another cold
  snap is on the way, with all data indicating we'll remain below
  normal for at least the next 7-10+ days

[TT-SEA]

Concerning temperatures... even Wednesday is still in the low 40s for most of western WA so it will be even more difficult to have snow on the ground when the cold air settles in by Thursday.    The opposite for Portland area southward where the snow comes at night on Wednesday and then its cold on Thursday and Friday.   Perfect timing!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Concerning temperatures... even Wednesday is still in the low 40s for most of western WA so it will be even more difficult to have snow on the ground when the cold air settles in by Thursday.    The opposite for Portland area southward where the snow comes at night on Wednesday and then its cold on Thursday and Friday.   Perfect timing!  

I assume the colder highs in Oregon on Wednesday are due to more cloud cover and precip. I find the Thursday highs a little hard to believe from Salem to PDX, this thing is definitely trending colder down the home stretch. If this map is correct we wouldn’t even get out of the upper 20s up here. It will be interesting to see how low we can go Thursday night. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I assume the colder highs in Oregon on Wednesday are due to more cloud cover and precip. I find the Thursday highs a little hard to believe from Salem to PDX, this thing is definitely trending colder down the home stretch. If this map is correct we wouldn’t even get out of the upper 20s up here. It will be interesting to see how low we can go Thursday night. 

Correct... ECMWF shows western OR socked in with low and mid-level clouds on Wednesday while there are no low clouds at all up here and just broken mid-level clouds which implies there would be some sun at times that day.