PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any idea what kind of dewpoints are going to move in Thursday with the continental air? That was the main reason we got so cold last February. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any idea what kind of dewpoints are going to move in Thursday with the continental air? That was the main reason we got so cold last February. 

Very low dewpoints!   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very low dewpoints!   

Thank you. Right now our forecast low Thursday night is 15, but I could definitely see us making a run at single

digits if winds are light. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM

[LowerGarfield]

10 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

High of 55 today in Othello! 

That subway or Quiznos is a go to stop on the way from the Palouse to Western Washington. There's really nothing from my location to there going 26 until you get to Ellensburg.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z NAM

Was going to mention. Good run. 

[snow maniac]

So no snow again at my location. No surprise there. Was hoping to break my 1 inch total for this winter….LOL

 

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z GFS so far. Very snowy for west and south metro like the 00z GFS. Overall western OR does well here. 

 

@MWG and @TigerWoodsLibido pleas let me know how you do this week. I hope this doesn't jinx you. I also want photos of the white stuff... it's legal in Oregon you know.

Rooting so hard for both of you.

 

[Timmy]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was going to mention. Good run. 

Best run for me in a few days. Good thing it’s the nam!

[Doinko]

GRAF. Did pretty good for the last event

 

[MWG]

15 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

@MWG and @TigerWoodsLibido pleas let me know how you do this week. I hope this doesn't jinx you. I also want photos of the white stuff... it's legal in Oregon you know.

Rooting so hard for both of you.

 

They backed off a little of how much snow we will get but still hopeful! 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF still looks really good down south.   

Interestingly the northern King County snow happens Tuesday morning in a little c-zone but that is well before the cold air arrives and its back into the 40s on Tuesday afternoon.     The ECMWF shows almost no precip up here after the cold air slowly bleeds in by Wednesday morning.

Most of the snow shown in western OR happens after dark on Wednesday evening so the timing is favorable.  

Wow, great run for here. Shows over 5" of snow. Looks like around 1" of that might be when temps are slightly warm but otherwise looks great with temps dropping into the 20s with snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GRAF. Did pretty good for the last event

 

Ridiculous amounts for the Cascades and even Coast Range!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ICON

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON

ICON showing 4"+ is a good sign

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That low placement is absolute money for western Oregon. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON

The Clackamas County dome in full effect. 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The Clackamas County dome in full effect. 

We aren’t used to getting domed up here, I can relate now. It’s brutal

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

We aren’t used to getting domed up here, I can relate now. It’s brutal

I don’t think it will actually play out this way. I think this is a Willamette Valley event. Too little QPF when it matters for the Portland area.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday system per GFS

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That low placement is absolute money for western Oregon. 

I've been trying to wrap my head around this system for day's. Normally a low placement developing near or off the coast of Astoria would be money for Seattle and south of there, but not with this one. Even though the strength based on pressure is impressive it just don't have much moisture to work with to spin it up north of the low i guess.

I'm just as excited to see how this plays out as you are to actually get the huge snow storm you are getting.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday system per GFS

Hmmm maybe an inch or two here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday system per GFS

This will be the system that buries my place because i will be at the cabin! hahaha

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This will have to be watched, definite trend to move that low in south of us and that could be a major event. 

Its trended south the last few runs a bunch.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z NAM

Nice. Shawnigan’s going to get crushed!  
 

But Euro says NO, so I doubt it. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This will have to be watched, definite trend to move that low in south of us and that could be a major event. 

Its trended south the last few runs a bunch.

12Z GEM absolutely buries our SW BC friends on Sunday.

And Bellingham too!  

[MossMan]

Up to 1.27” so far on the day, 4.03” for the month. (I’m closing my eyes and pretending it’s all snow…How delightful) 

43 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM absolutely buries our SW BC friends on Sunday.

And Bellingham too!  

It's showing 4-6" here too. Interesting. GFS is really trending colder with the trough early next week too. Great to see. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM absolutely buries our SW BC friends on Sunday.

And Bellingham too!  

And if the trend continues this will keep moving south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS is one of those all roads lead to Rome type situations. 

[MossMan]

Colorful map! One thing I always notice is when there is a strong westerly surge down the strait forecasted the NWS never extends the high wind warning past Camano Island, however we almost always get similar wind speeds as Camano. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rod Hill has chimed in. 

[Phishy Wx]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM absolutely buries our SW BC friends on Sunday.

And Bellingham too!  

lol, i'd take that as a seasonal wrap up over here. would be the biggest storm of the season if that played out.  (although I think we have surprises in store for March and April as well this year)

[Phishy Wx]

for tomorrow's system think 1-3" in this area.  no biggie, the cold will be the story here.  Single digit lows and highs in the teens on Thursday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

for tomorrow's system think 1-3" in this area.  no biggie, the cold will be the story here.  Single digit lows and highs in the teens on Thursday.

I remember 2019 was colder, but that still seems pretty chilly for this time of year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS is just bananas. 

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember 2019 was colder, but that still seems pretty chilly for this time of year. 

2019 was colder, windier after the snow and more overall snow.  we had a pretty intense ground blizzard after the initial storm and a lot more snow cover already on the ground before the storm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to freezing again for the 45th time this regular season. Wonderful cold nights and this winter has been better than most. Doing well so far. Sub freezing high, snow. Very dynamic at times and has been fun.