PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[runninthruda206]

14 minutes ago, RCola said:

Initial impression is this will be a memorable week for OR and later in the week for BC. I'd be thrilled if the weekend event trends south and colder, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Seattle area is skunked twice this week. That's been the theme of the winter.

Ensembles look promising for the central sound at 300 hours out, but then again, they looked promising when this week was 300 hours out.

Really happy for the folks in OR, though. They deserve it! The folks in BC, however, really don't need more snow. Send it south.

I’ll be in whistler this weekend! Hoping for a big storm

[Slushy Inch]

TRENDS.

[MossMan]

My summer project will be completing the last phase of drainage work around the property. Where I added the RV parking area last summer tends to go a bit underwater during big rains so I will take care of that. 

Up to 1.50” on the day. Also getting a bit breezy. 

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It would be insanely boring. 

I think where you're at would be too much for me.  My ideal climate would be colder than your area, but more like 40 inches of snow average a year.

You wouldn’t want to live in a lake effect belt? That’s one of my wx weenie dream life scenarios.

47 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

SSWs favor the East though!!!

Haha, I actually believed that myth until I took an in-depth look at the data. Turns out they actually favor the *west* by a 2-1 margin in the satellite era. In February it’s more like a 4-1 margin.  

Only the minor SSW/non-reversal W1 displacements favor the east (like the one in late Jan/early Feb that brought that insane cold to New England).

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pleasant noon time. 

Where’s the snow?

[Doinko]

Euro has been looking better and better for snow, much less of it is marginal. Compare yesterday's 18z to today's 12z and all of the snow falls below 32 degrees on today's while a lot of it fell at 35/36 on the 18z. Amounts look less on this run but the majority of the Metro is more

 

 

 

[MossMan]

Wow…

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Euro has been looking better and better for snow, much less of it is marginal. Compare yesterday's 18z to today's 12z and all of the snow falls below 32 degrees on today's while a lot of it fell at 35/36 on the 18z. Amounts look less on this run but the majority of the Metro is more

 

 

 

A good portion of it actually falls in the mid 20s.

Here's the snow maps for the past few runs

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The NAM doesn’t look good for PDX

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The NAM doesn’t look good for PDX

It’s way south. Doesn’t even look good for Salem. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Best Willamette Valley snow chances north of Albany on the NAM are Wednesday morning. Might not be cold enough on the valley floor at that time though. 

[HuskyMaestro]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow…

A whole new quake and not an aftershock? F*ck, man. Really wish them the best.  

[Timmy]

Good thing it’s the nam!

[thickhog]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro has been looking better and better for snow, much less of it is marginal. Compare yesterday's 18z to today's 12z and all of the snow falls below 32 degrees on today's while a lot of it fell at 35/36 on the 18z. Amounts look less on this run but the majority of the Metro is more

 

 

 

2/3 of the precip falls by 9pm Tue, when it never gets below 37. At 1500’ that’s all snow.

[ShawniganLake]

Our cabin in the Cariboooo region is getting buried. Looks like between 30-40” on the ground with more on the way. 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It would be insanely boring. 

I think where you're at would be too much for me.  My ideal climate would be colder than your area, but more like 40 inches of snow average a year.

The big winters up here are definitely to much, but it's only like a 1 in 10 year type thing. Most winters we get 8-12  6-14" cold front passage snow events, with one biggie 24" plus storm. Then the sun comes out between storms for a week or two with temps in the mid to upper 40's which melts all the roads. So most winters are pretty nice. The only part I can't stand is winter goes into late May every year no matter what. But that's when I head to Vegas! 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, thickhog said:

2/3 of the precip falls by 9pm Tue, when it never gets below 37. At 1500’ that’s all snow.

A good amount of precip then falls in the 20s. More in the west metro

[Perturbed Member]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Best Willamette Valley snow chances north of Albany on the NAM are Wednesday morning. Might not be cold enough on the valley floor at that time though. 

It would be a total non event up here if the 18z NAM verified. No sticking snow. 

[Prairiedog]

4 hours ago, Doinko said:

Wow, great run for here. Shows over 5" of snow. Looks like around 1" of that might be when temps are slightly warm but otherwise looks great with temps dropping into the 20s with snow

Interesting.  NWS gives the WV a 30-50% for 1".  We;ll obviously have some winners and some losers.  I'm used to it.  I'll take my slushy trace on my windshield before it freezes.  Will the NWS deliver their  odds or the GRAF and EURO?  At this point, I don't have a clue.  Rod didn't give any hope for something measurable this am but did have Thursday's high at 32.  Really curious what Mark will have to say.  I guess if I have a chance for something measurable this will be it.  I've had two windshield slushfests so far this winter.  Still nothing to cover the dog poop on the farm either.  It's sad when you only have frozen poop and nothing to cover it when it gets cold.  My cats just laugh as they look at their warm litter boxes. 

[OysterPrintout]

12k nam is pretty bad at this range. Also other ranges. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It would be a total non event up here if the 18z NAM verified. No sticking snow. 

NAM does not like us... but to be fair, it's not an incredibly accurate model even within this range. EURO being on our side is encouraging.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

NAM does not like us... but to be fair, it's not an incredibly accurate model even within this range. EURO being on our side is encouraging.

GRAF too

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Get on the windward side of those mountains and lots of places average 50–90"/year.

yup I lived in the Boulder Creek and Felton areas of the Santa Cruz Mtns for 4 years 2012-16.  averaged close to 60" of rain at my place and that's with a couple super dry winters mixed in

[Doinko]

RGEM doesn't like PDX either but it looks good for the Valley

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The RGEM is still trash for Portland. 

[Phishy Wx]

somehow the 18z NAM 3K got even snowier than the 12z for the Spokane area.  doubt it, but here's to hoping.

 

[Doinko]

Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The RGEM is still trash for Portland. 

 

[Doinko]

On the other hand the ICON looks great

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

FEB is the new JAN, and March, is the new FEB I guess.

And January is the new October!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

ICON still pushing the north and northwest of Clackamas County snow during the day on Wednesday agenda. 

[Perturbed Member]

9 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Interesting.  NWS gives the WV a 30-50% for 1".  We;ll obviously have some winners and some losers.  I'm used to it.  I'll take my slushy trace on my windshield before it freezes.  Will the NWS deliver their  odds or the GRAF and EURO?  At this point, I don't have a clue.  Rod didn't give any hope for something measurable this am but did have Thursday's high at 32.  Really curious what Mark will have to say.  I guess if I have a chance for something measurable this will be it.  I've had two windshield slushfests so far this winter.  Still nothing to cover the dog poop on the farm either.  It's sad when you only have frozen poop and nothing to cover it when it gets cold.  My cats just laugh as they look at their warm litter boxes. 

The NWS for a while now has relied most heavily on the NWS blend of models. They focus more on the statistical and ensembling techniques  more than pure metalogical analysis these days. FWIW the NBM model that they love hasn't been too snowy for this event. 

Here is the most recent run, FWIW I think this is one of the the snowiest runs it has had yet. 

[Doinko]

ICON looks good for Washington County

 

 

[MWG]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

The NWS for a while now has relied most heavily on the NWS blend of models. They focus more on the statistical and ensembling techniques  more than pure metalogical analysis these days. FWIW the NBM model that they love hasn't been too snowy for this event. 

Here is the most recent run, FWIW I think this is one of the the snowiest runs it has had yet. 

Roseburg 

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

On the other hand the ICON looks great

Yeah this is gonna be good. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The antagonizing wait continues 

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The antagonizing wait continues 

hopefully worth it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

55 and cloudy in Buena Vista. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

29 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Our cabin in the Cariboooo region is getting buried. Looks like between 30-40” on the ground with more on the way. 

Do you ever go up there in the winter?

[Jbolin]

6 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The antagonizing wait continues 

The "antagonizing" wait?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

55 and cloudy in Buena Vista. 

Colorado?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Colorado?

Oregon. Polk county south of Monmouth.