PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[bainbridgekid]

Snowing and sticking in Edmonds now. Good sign about the Northward progress.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Every freeway is closed……? Wow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m seeing reports of 9” in Gresham. 

[The Cats Meow]

Just now, TeacherLori said:

Hello,

Need some quick advice. My daughter is in Portland for work (just finished) and is wondering if it's safe for her to drive home to Lynnwood. She said snow is sticking to the streets. She's wondering if she should overnight in Portland and head back tomorrow, or make a break for it right now. Your thoughts?

Head to Motel 6.  They will leave the light on.

She can start out on her trek tomorrow in the daylight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just dumping!!! Fuckkk these models I knew it would snow here with a low of 998mb spinning around Astoria.  In all the years I have never seen a low of that strength in that area not bring measurable snow to Puget sound. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That could be the reason the South Sound is getting snow and the models changed on the 18z.

It snowed down here today Jim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really don’t understand how people can’t drive in the snow. It’s really not that difficult. Always cracks me up. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, TeacherLori said:

Hello,

Need some quick advice. My daughter is in Portland for work (just finished) and is wondering if it's safe for her to drive home to Lynnwood. She said snow is sticking to the streets. She's wondering if she should overnight in Portland and head back tomorrow, or make a break for it right now. Your thoughts?

It's a nightmare out there, I'd highly suggest she stays in PDX for the time being.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really don’t understand how people can’t drive in the snow. It’s really not that difficult. Always cracks me up. 

Gotta worry about other people though is the problem 

[Dillymill217]

South hill near graham, have picked up  about an inch and a half or so

[Doinko]

Snowing pretty heavily, and the east wind is blowing the snow all around. Wonder if we'll reach a few inches or so

[bishbish777]

It'll be interesting to see if anything can make it to Seattle proper. A couple inches tonight would be so cool.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Gotta worry about other people though is the problem 

True. Sometimes up here I’ll get behind people creeping down the hill at 15 mph. Have to downshift or ride the brakes all the way. 

[thisisacreativename]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True. Sometimes up here I’ll get behind people creeping down the hill at 15 mph. Have to downshift or ride the brakes all the way. 

Had to help shovel out a guy that hit his brakes going up a hill a few years ago.

[Perturbed Member]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looking at the news from PDX, looked like lots of people got caught by the snow and are now stuck in traffic trying to get home. A predictable consequence of failing to issue a warning despite the model guidance that something significant was highly likely.

Just inexplicable that the PDX NWS didn't issue anything at all last night just because the NBM and SREF showed nothing even when every other model not named the NAM or WRF indicated that something major was on the way around here.

[The Cats Meow]

Just now, bishbish777 said:

It'll be interesting to see if anything can make it to Seattle proper. A couple inches tonight would be so cool.

Just looking at the radar everything headed north is just getting shredded about Kent.

I mean shredded apart.  There is a lot of dry cold air just eating away at the moisture.

[Front Ranger]

February these days.

[OysterPrintout]

7 minutes ago, The Blob said:

January 2017 repeat?

Just 7 inches and thundersnow short! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also a lot of driving in the snow comes down to tires. If you have tires in poor condition even with AWD, you will struggle. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This will actually be quality snow for you.  I know that isn't the case with a lot of the snow you get.  Going to be a great late season event when all is said and done.

I've had some cold snow this year. That one big dump was really the only really wet snow this year.

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Just inexplicable that the PDX NWS didn't issue anything at all last night just because the NBM and SREF showed nothing even when every other model not named the NAM or WRF indicated that something major was on the way around here.

It continues to be comical how PDX NWS almost always finds a way to blow it. 

[MossMan]

Snowing! Fresh white! 28 degrees! 

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Just inexplicable that the PDX NWS didn't issue anything at all last night just because the NBM and SREF showed nothing even when every other model not named the NAM or WRF indicated that something major was on the way around here.

I honestly think it was a huge mistake on their part. The fact the Euro showed it and they betted against that. They should know to never bet against the Euro. I finally learned that the hard way last December when it was the one model that showed the rain/snow line north of me but I decided to believe all the other models. It was a pain to wake up to a 34 degree rain with a roaring south wind.

[TacomaWx]

Snows still been pretty light…the really heavy stuff is still south of 512 roughly still. Overall, it’s still moving north. #patienceisavirtue

[OysterPrintout]

To be fair to NWS the idea of an afternoon/early evening smashing centered over downtown to east Portland wasn't exactly a lock. 

[WhoNeedsAC]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Just inexplicable that the PDX NWS didn't issue anything at all last night just because the NBM and SREF showed nothing even when every other model not named the NAM or WRF indicated that something major was on the way around here.

I used to work in Lake Oswego and got stuck in one of those commutes from hell after a snowstorm that was forecast as "flurries changing to rain". Took me almost 11 hours to drive from Lake O to St. Helens. Never took that chance again. Fortunately, my boss was understanding when I told him I wasn't going to the office any time there was a chance of snow..

[MillCreekMike]

6 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Just looking at the radar everything headed north is just getting shredded about Kent.

I mean shredded apart.  There is a lot of dry cold air just eating away at the moisture.

An hour or so ago this was true, but in the last hour it’s been making it’s way north pretty good.

[MossMan]

Yee Haw!! 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Snows still been pretty light…the really heavy stuff is still south of 512 roughly still. Overall, it’s still moving north. #patienceisavirtue

The offshore stuff looks good. Let's see how north it makes it 

[MillCreekMike]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yee Haw!! 

How

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m seeing reports of 9” in Gresham. 

My 8-14 forecast for some areas has verified!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m seeing reports of 9” in Gresham. 

I got ~7.5” here and still coming down good. What a night! MOTHER NATURE, YOU ARE AMAZING!!!

[BLI snowman]

Band coming up into Portland from the south looks like a monster, gonna be some 1-2" per hour rates with that.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Also a lot of driving in the snow comes down to tires. If you have tires in poor condition even with AWD, you will struggle. 

100%. Even with AWD and a nice traction control system, if you don't have at least all-season tires you'll be slipping and sliding. The sport tires my CX-5 came with were awful in the snow and even pretty lousy in the rain (not that we get much of that here).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

They should know to never bet against the Euro.

Particularly when the GFS was agreeing that an impactful snowfall was imminent. When the Euro and GFS agree about something, particularly as it gets within 24 hours, it almost always happens. Super strong signal. And other models were climbing on board as well!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Band coming up into Portland from the south looks like a monster, gonna be some 1-2" per hour rates with that.

Looks like I'm in a decent spot right now. Already some heavy blowing snow

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Doinko said:

Looks like I'm in a decent spot right now. Already some heavy blowing snow

Still really on/off up here with another light period ATM, nothing like further south. Looks like about 2.5", with the roads slowly whitening finally.

[snow_wizard]

Just very light snow here so far, but the moisture stream looks pretty consistent right now.

[TeacherLori]

23 minutes ago, TeacherLori said:

Hello,

Need some quick advice. My daughter is in Portland for work (just finished) and is wondering if it's safe for her to drive home to Lynnwood. She said snow is sticking to the streets. She's wondering if she should overnight in Portland and head back tomorrow, or make a break for it right now. Your thoughts?

Thank you everyone who posted with your wise counsel. She is staying put in Portland and can hopefully head out in the daylight tomorrow.

[Doinko]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Still really on/off up here with another light period ATM, nothing like further south. Looks like about 2.5", with the roads slowly whitening finally.

Less then that here but roads are already completely covered

[snow_wizard]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Still really on/off up here with another light period ATM, nothing like further south. Looks like about 2.5", with the roads slowly whitening finally.

2.5" is nothing to sneeze at.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TeacherLori said:

Thank you everyone who posted with your wise counsel. She is staying put in Portland and can hopefully head out in the daylight tomorrow.

Very wise choice.  Venturing out on a night like this can easily turn into a nightmare.

[Front Ranger]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m seeing reports of 9” in Gresham. 

Rob?

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like I'm in a decent spot right now. Already some heavy blowing snow

00z RGEM is thinking 5-10 inch totals for WA county with the peak snowfall rate around 10 PM, snow finally ends around 7-10 AM tomorrow. 

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, TeacherLori said:

Thank you everyone who posted with your wise counsel. She is staying put in Portland and can hopefully head out in the daylight tomorrow.

Good choice! Just staying put for a night is a small price to pay to avoid getting stranded or ending up in an accident.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2.5" is nothing to sneeze at.

Not bad, but a bit of it came this morning and the radar has been a major tease for about 5 hours now.

Edited February 23 by BLI snowman

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

To be fair to NWS the idea of an afternoon/early evening smashing centered over downtown to east Portland wasn't exactly a lock. 

Yeah, the timing was tough, but there was more than enough evidence by last night to at least issue a watch for the general period.

[The Cats Meow]

If that low spins as slow as it has been and comes in near the mouth of the columbia it's hard to believe it won't lift more substantial moisture bands into the central sounds.

Fingers crossed.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Just looking at the radar everything headed north is just getting shredded about Kent.

I mean shredded apart.  There is a lot of dry cold air just eating away at the moisture.

That is supposed to change.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Sounds like the Nanaimo - Nanoose area is sitting around 6~12". My Dad went out and measured at their place in Nanoose and it was just over 12" deep. Still dumping there from the looks of it on the cams:

Also, starting to get some anemic snow in Victoria. Most of it seems to be sublimating on impact, but at this rate there could be a token dusting by the morning. Looking better in Shawnigan's area:

Ladysmith is getting dumped on again:

It also extends up to Qualicum Beach, so the band is certainly wider now than it was previously: