PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[GHweatherChris]

Feeling like a dusting is best case scenario for here, radar is looking less than inspiring out this way.

[thickhog]

3 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Hoping for a miracle and it can make its way up here

Same here, brother

[bainbridgekid]

Looking good in South Puyallup.

[Mid Valley Duck]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Mark Nelsen just said you guys should probably get some more snow tonight, T-5" depending on elevation. Really hoping that happens for that area

HRRR looks anemic down so I’m extremely concerned 

[umadbro]

19 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

I swear the low is lifting north. The train of moisture that was heading towards me, is now trending north.

36f and still a south wind. Quite snowy in Stayton most of the day earlier, but little stickage.

This sucks

Models showed it lifting north before heading back south. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Looking good in South Puyallup.

Do i make the drive out to randomly visit my family in SH tonight??? Maybe 

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Heavy flurries in the Puyallup Valley.  I mean heavy.

Someone hoist a special weather statement.

Hard to complin about this last minute change!  The fact the 18z models were so dramatically improved for South Sound and Central Sound snowfall means it could end up even better than shown on those.

[SnowySeeker50]

Can see it coming from a distance. Unfortunately passing just west of me so I'm getting just very light off and on snow flurries

[Cloud]

Getting some light flurries! 

[snow_wizard]

Congrats to our friends in Portland.  They most certainly deserve it!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Getting a few flakes in Vancouver this evening.

[Gummy]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Models showed it lifting north before heading back south. 

Yea, it bounces back off into the ocean and heads south around 3-4 AM on many of the models

[snow_wizard]

And how about that weekend system!  That is looking like a pretty big deal at this point.

In the meantime already freezing here with a very cold east wind blowing.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

And how about that weekend system!  That is looking like a pretty big deal at this point.

In the meantime already freezing here with a very cold east wind blowing.

Tomorrow could be historically cold here. PDX already has a decent amount of snow on the ground

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Models showed it lifting north before heading back south. 

Not really at this point. It likes it wobbles in place for a second before heading south according to the models. The radar shows it possibly moving north rn…. Who knows doe 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

And how about that weekend system!  That is looking like a pretty big deal at this point.

In the meantime already freezing here with a very cold east wind blowing.

Cliff Mass is already on board. Roads may not be too warm. 

[SpaceRace22]

I deserve this

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Hoping for a miracle and it can make its way up here

It did in Feb 2014!

[Gummy]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And how about that weekend system!  That is looking like a pretty big deal at this point.

In the meantime already freezing here with a very cold east wind blowing.

I am hoping the precip totals can stay in the 0.3 to 0.4 range for most of the sound.  If they get cut down to 0.1 to 0.2 in future runs I will be sad.  Temps will be right on that 32/33 border according to the euro and GFS so decent precip rates will definitely help.

[Perturbed Member]

00z HRRR gets the band out of here in a hurry after sunset. Goes for 0-2 inches in the west metro. Strong totals downtown and north. Looking at the radar and the bigger picture, I doubt it will play out like this. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z HRRR gets the band out of here in a hurry after sunset. Goes for 0-2 inches in the west metro. Strong totals downtown and north. Looking at the radar and the bigger picture, I doubt it will play out like this. 

How much do you think we'll get?

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I deserve this

Yeah, pretty light here so far. About 2" still on the grass but wet asphalt remains. Took a drive around and it's a different world closer to the river, even DT Vancouver has significantly more coverage on the pavement.

Edited February 23 by BLI snowman

[Requiem]

A very respectable 5.3 at the NWS Parkrose location, and dumping pretty much across the metro apart from maybe south and far west.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

How much do you think we'll get?

My gut feeling is we will get 3-6 inches. Timing is good and we haven't seen the best dynamics out of this yet for our area. The low looks healthy and juicy and I doubt it will hurry off that quickly to the SW.

I might be wishcasting though. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Requiem said:

A very respectable 5.3 at the NWS Parkrose location, and dumping pretty much across the metro apart from maybe south and far west.

How much at your place in the West Hills?

[Cloud]

Can obviously see why models tend to struggle in events like these. Low development is weak…. We’re looking at what? 1000mb low? A slight shift north or south appears to have major implications with the snow line. To my untrained eyes, it is still lifting north slightly but nearly stationary. It will eventually make it way back south. 

[MillCreekMike]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It did in Feb 2014!

Remember that very well! Got a solid 2” and it was an amazing feeling. Unforecasted snow always has a special feeling forecasted snow doesn’t have.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This could be a pretty historic event along the southern Oregon coast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5.3” at the park rose office?! That’s insane! They have a lot more coming. 

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, pretty light here so far. About 2" still on the grass but wet asphalt remains. Took a drive around and it's a different world closer to the river, even DT Vancouver has significantly more coverage on the pavement.

Yeah we still only have a heavy dusting here, bummer. Weird how the precip is just vanishing into thin air as soon as it reaches this area. Is it because the Gorge outflow doesn't quite reach this part of town?

Wondering if there's any chance of the hole filling in later, or if we're screwed. Got a sinking feeling that the lack of Gorge outflow here is going to keep that donut hole going for the rest of the night.

 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, pretty light here so far. About 2" still on the grass but wet asphalt remains. Took a drive around and it's a different world closer to the river, even DT Vancouver has significantly more coverage on the pavement.

Getting pretty snowy out. East wind is decently strong too. Hoping for some sleddable snow at least

[thickhog]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z HRRR gets the band out of here in a hurry after sunset. Goes for 0-2 inches in the west metro. Strong totals downtown and north. Looking at the radar and the bigger picture, I doubt it will play out like this. 

Why do you think that? This has the makings of an all-time snow hole for sw metro. I pray that I’m wrong. Though north Beaverton could end up doing better than west Tigard / Sherwood.

[Cloud]

This system is quite intriguing. Pretty much the foothills of the Olympics is getting snow up to Van. island while missing the I-5 corridor from Seattle north. 

[The Cats Meow]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

5.3” at the park rose office?! That’s insane! They have a lot more coming. 

At 1600' I would think your location gets snow every winter?  Must be paradise.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah we still only have a heavy dusting here, bummer. Weird how the precip is just vanishing into thin air as soon as it reaches this area. Is it because the Gorge outflow doesn't quite reach this part of town?

Wondering if there's any chance of the hole filling in later, or if we're screwed. Got a sinking feeling that the lack of Gorge outflow here is going to keep that donut hole going for the rest of the night.

 

It's been more about the position of the low stretching the deformation band apart over NW Clark County since early afternoon, keeping the precip rates pretty light. It's below freezing everywhere in Clark County now, so temps won't be an issue going forward, but the eastside has had colder temps + much better precip rates hence the high totals. Hopefully that changes here soon as the low shifts, we'll see.

[MossMan]

A few more evening pics…My gravel walkways cleared out, but stayed around the other surfaces nicely. At work all of the snow melted off the ground but the trees were still flocked, not sure if I have ever seen that before! 
29.6 degrees. 

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How much at your place in the West Hills?

At least 3 inches and absolutely dumping snow atm

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

My gut feeling is we will get 3-6 inches. Timing is good and we haven't seen the best dynamics out of this yet for our area. The low looks healthy and juicy and I doubt it will hurry off that quickly to the SW.

I might be wishcasting though. 

That would be amazing. Hopefully that happens

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's been more about the position of the low stretching the deformation band apart over NW Clark County since early afternoon, keeping the precip rates pretty light. It's below freezing everywhere in Clark County now, so temps won't be an issue going forward, but the eastside has had colder temps + much better precip rates hence the high totals. Hopefully that changes here soon as the low shifts, we'll see.

On satellite it looks like the low is still shifting a bit more north, not sure if I'm getting fooled or not. 

[TacomaWx]

Snows picking up a bit…down to 34. Getting closer…

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The cold air was made its way out to Hillsboro now but not quite to Forest Grove. Still 37 there as in McMinnville, Newberg and Aurora.

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

I am distributed about the lack of snow pics out of Portland….. 

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am distributed about the lack of snow pics out of Portland….. 

https://old.reddit.com/r/Portland/new/

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am distributed about the lack of snow pics out of Portland….. 

Not too much so far but it's snowing nicely and radar looks good

[Requiem]

[dhoffine]

Good old cold east wind is blowing out here in Enumclaw, very cold, and no moisture, of course

[Cold Snap]

I have a feeling the south sound is going to over perform tonight. Central sound though we will have to wait and see.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Any reports out of Federal Way/Des Moines/Kent? Any snow falling?

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am distributed about the lack of snow pics out of Portland….. 

yeah I think people are sick of seeing my pics here at the Snohomish/Skagit border lol! Let’s see more southern snow pics! 

[runninthruda206]

Currently donut holed in Fremont! Dont be shy, fill in