PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon. Polk county south of Monmouth. 

They still have the ferry there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

They still have the ferry there?

Yessir. The Lords country. Mt. Jefferson is majestic today. 

[Doinko]

Wow the ICON shows 6-8" of snow here

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane getting a little more Bullish

 

I'm halfway between Spokane and Coeur D'Alene near the ID border.  Thinking maybe 2-4" or 3-5" is possible.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Wow the ICON shows 6-8" of snow here

Icon status. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

MONEY

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

MONEY

Almost a foot here!

[Gummy]

12 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

The "antagonizing" wait?

The models have been antagonizing Portlanders for five years running.

[Doinko]

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

https://www.kptv.com/2023/02/20/well-advertised-cold-snap-arrives-wednesday-night-snow-chance-continues-lowest-elevations-too/

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

MONEY

WASHINGTON COUNTY

[Prairiedog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

A friend that lives in Chelan is reporting 61 degrees! 

I'm guessing some good southerlies are cookin in the Basin?

[Prairiedog]

35 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The NWS for a while now has relied most heavily on the NWS blend of models. They focus more on the statistical and ensembling techniques  more than pure metalogical analysis these days. FWIW the NBM model that they love hasn't been too snowy for this event. 

Here is the most recent run, FWIW I think this is one of the the snowiest runs it has had yet. 

At this point of the winter, I guess I'll be pretty happy to watch an inch fall.  I'm  east of 205 by about 20 miles but only 315' elevation.  The foothills really start about 10 miles east of me near Estacada area.  I get warm nosed all the time in over running events although this isn't that kind of set up but it will find a way to happen here.  This will be the usual "until it happens" will we know what is going ot happen.  Thanks for the information of the NWS modeling.  Interesting. 

[Doinko]

GFS looks fantastic for Washington county

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS is an improvement for PDX metro and it slams west and south metro. 

[Gummy]

18z is slightly better for WW, colder 825s too.

[Perturbed Member]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WHOA. Pretty good for most of W. Oregon. Shows 14" up here..

[SouthHillFrosty]

A holy shit run for Oregon 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Gummy said:

18z is slightly better for WW, colder 825s too.

The last minute moisten up like what usually happens! Hoping for an inch! 

[Slushy Inch]

GFS back up to  1-2 inches for me.

[JW8]

28 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

MONEY

LOL at the entire Puget Sound region. Not even a hint 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

GFS back up to  1-2 inches for me.

Yea hopefully it trends snowier!!

[Perturbed Member]

5 minutes ago, JW8 said:

LOL at the entire Puget Sound region. Not even a hint 

Probably safe to say that it isn't going to snow 13-14 inches in Washington County, OR, while the rest of the western OR lowlands get a trace and western WA gets 0. 

[High Desert Mat?]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

A holy run for Oregon 

Meh, it shows Redmond at 1.3”. Throw it out lol. 

[Doinko]

GRAF still looks good

 

[Perturbed Member]

These are just beautiful maps for NW OR. Low sitting off Cannon Beach slowly drifting down while deepening, pulling a cold east wind through the gorge and rotating precip over us. Doesn't get too much better. Hopefully it actually verifies. 

[YahRaEl]

Gusting 41-46 mph here in the Seattle City Center/Downtown Seattle area 

[TT-SEA]

Andrew here... so we are all just going to completely ignore the Sunday event?? 

[The Cats Meow]

10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

These are just beautiful maps for NW OR. Low sitting off Cannon Beach slowly drifting down while deepening, pulling a cold east wind through the gorge and rotating precip over us. Doesn't get too much better. Hopefully it actually verifies. 

the winds from the north east must just be chewing up any moisture that would rotate into western washington, pretty impressive

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Andrew here... so we are all just going to completely ignore the Sunday event?? 

What about it? 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

What about it? 

Uhhhh... that is so rock solid.   

[Phishy Wx]

one event at a time peeps

[TacomaWx]

My boss is still complaining about the lack of rain. Tried telling him yesterday the totals wouldn’t be that impressive at most of our sites. Sends an email to everyone saying prep for a long day but everyone’s going home mostly now

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Uhhhh... that is so rock solid.   

Looks a little weaker this run, will change again. Hood canal does well. I think people are focused on Wednesday/Thursday.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Looks a little weaker this run, will change again. Hood canal does well. I think people are focused on Wednesday/Thursday.

I think most people will atleast get some light accumulations in western WA still Wednesday/Thursday but overall our best shot appears to be moving towards the overrunning event Sunday. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looks a little weaker this run, will change again. Hood canal does well. I think people are focused on Wednesday/Thursday.

I know... it was a little levity for a Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Andrew here... so we are all just going to completely ignore the Sunday event?? 

Its a lot better on the GEM and EURO, but the GFS is starting to come around. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

GEFS was a lot more snowy for this week

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Its a lot better on the GEM and EURO, but the GFS is starting to come around. 

GFS has been struggling?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

GFS has been struggling?

With this ONE system. It's sad.