PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Perturbed Member]

UKMET

[Kolk1604]

Guys I think we need something like this when we're about to get hammered. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow

Really sucks for folks west of I 5 south f wilsonville. Would be a real bummer. @Jakewestsalem

@Mid Valley Duck

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET

Looks like ocean effect snow for PDX to me. Garbage to the north and south. 

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET

Poor Salem getting the Fife/Puyallup treatment

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I lived in Salem I’d be moving to

iowa. Nowhere inland and north of Red Bluff has been hosed more since January 7, 2017.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS 850s touch colder -20c The Dalles. LEGIT blast.

[Slushy Inch]

[TacomaWx]

Down to 38 here…looks like some showers are still around. Not expecting anything but hopefully when I wake up at 5am the ground is white. I’m sure I’ll end up doing the old fashioned streetlamp check atleast once or twice though still

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Back to the Puget Sound, today was a wonderful day for skygazing off the top floor. Working in an Amazon building has its perks. Driving home today around 7pm, there was a burst of heavy rain/snow mix at sea level in the Interbay neighborhood within the CZ.

Most models, including (especially) the Euro, are insistent on some wraparound snowfall in the area later tonight. Given how saturated this airmass is, any lift will cause precipitation.

Also @RentonHill dawg there is no way you work more than like two blocks away from me. Looking at your posts earlier I recognized that vantage point like the palm of my hand. Westlake right?

I’m at fifth and marion…so close

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I would expect a deicing delay but I would also expect to take off. SLC can handle snow.

[SpaceRace22]

If the Euro shows more than 2" at PDX, I'm booking my flight for first thing in the morning, deadass.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not only a similar vibe, but a very similar physical configuration of the atmosphere.

Would be pretty incredible to see something similar at all besides the fact that it is late February

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My wife just declared this whole thing a bust.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would expect a deicing delay but I would also expect to take off. SLC can handle snow.

That’s what I thought. PDX or SEA would be shutdown.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I’m at fifth and marion…so close

6th/Lenora

[LowerGarfield]

Had about .10 from 3pm-5:30pm when I checked and prepared the board for overnight. We had a good cell come through around 7 or so, it was enough to bring the snowplow out on the hwy out front. The shoulder lane was covered in snow as was a good portion of the sidewalk, but shortly after the plow came through, the snow stopped and melted on the shoulder and hanging in there on the walk. Have a nice layer on the grass, but will wait to measure again til tomorrow morning, I'm about 33F and a half.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife just declared this whole thing a bust.

My wife is mad at me for the bust up here. I told her last week that we would have a big snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning…I was WAY off and she is not letting me forget. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My wife is mad at me for the bust up here. I told her last week that we would have a big snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning…I was WAY off and she is not letting me forget. 

So far this has been a non event 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow

Another great run! Similar to what the 00z RGEM/GEM showed with a strong deformation band signal over PDX Metro. I’m getting 1/10/17 vibes right now where the forecast was up to a few inches but everything came together perfectly and we got hammered.

[Christensen87]

CFS looks great for prolonged cold through mid March. 

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET

[selkirks]

30 minutes ago, Doinko said:

WWA for the inland empire...

Not just that––Mt. Waterman could end up getting 5-6 feet!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2-4 inches for the metro Area of Portland looks like a good forecast if you average everything out. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

35 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

I’m in the purple. Should I let myself be excited yet?

Not as excited as I am!  I'm in the white and since snow is white that means I'm getting TONS of snow!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So far this has been a non event 

This weekend looks fun for everyone. 

[Doinko]

Any similarities to February 1995?

[Jakewestsalem]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really sucks for folks west of I 5 south f wilsonville. Would be a real bummer. @Jakewestsalem

@Mid Valley Duck

We'll be fine. I am almost 500' and if there is any snow in the area (minus coast range damming) we will squeeze out more than anywhere other than south salem/Turner hills

[MWG]

Nothing happening here. I guess I’ll have to wait in the morning. 

[OysterPrintout]

Between the chorus of 1-10-17 vibes and people saying they are gonna fly out here for snow I'm gritting my teeth for this euro run.

[JW8]

What time do we think the reach around may happen for the central sound? My weather app says 5-7 am. Accurate?

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Between the chorus of 1-10-17 vibes and people saying they are gonna fly out here for snow I'm gritting my teeth for this euro run.

Tonight's Euro run will be spectacular. The inevitable bust will only become clear the moment my plane lands in Portland and when people start telling the normies in their lives about 1/10/17 tomorrow.

[Jakewestsalem]

PDX AFD quite bullish on almost warning criteria amounts for central WV now

[Doinko]

They're going to make the next shift think about it lol

 

We also seriously mulled expanding the Winter Wx Advisory northward
into the Portland metro area, as latest models have been trending a
little farther north and slower with the 997 mb presently moving
onshore near Cape Shoalwater. 00z HREF valley snow totals for areas
south of Wilsonville are getting close to warning criteria, with HREF
mean now showing a solid 2 to 4 inches and 90th percentile values
getting up near 6 inches. But the 00z HREF remains stingy for snow
accumulations around the PDX metro area and points north, which makes
sense as the air will become very dry as NE flow develops north and
east of Portland. Further complicating things is the potential for
enhanced low-level frontogenesis and associated banding of snow Wed
night as arctic air pushes up against the maritime polar air mass in
place. This may develop near or south of Portland, or may not develop
at all. Given all this uncertainty, we will not make any changes for
the Portland metro, and will allow the midnight shift to take a
longer look at 00z models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Southern Oregon Coast under a winter storm warning. 2-4” for Reedsport, Coos Bay, Brookings. Brookings was near 80 a few days ago. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Between the chorus of 1-10-17 vibes and people saying they are gonna fly out here for snow I'm gritting my teeth for this euro run.

I’m flying an experimental glider to Brookings to see snow on the south coast. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really sucks for folks west of I 5 south f wilsonville. Would be a real bummer. @Jakewestsalem

@Mid Valley Duck

Not super nervous yet. I find it interesting the high res models take things much further south while the global models take things far to the north. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Getting some small snowflakes here now, I would have expected it to be drizzle with the temperature still at 37F but the dewpoint is 30F so I guess that's keeping it as snow to the surface. 

Different story up in Nanaimo, could be 10" up there by Thursday:

Yet, about 40 miles to the north of there it's completely dry. Looks like a pretty sharp snow gradient in between:

Just to the South Ladysmith is getting hammered:

Still pretty sloppy to the south of there though, this is at 1000ft asl near Shawnigan:

[Doinko]

Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Getting some small snowflakes here now, I would have expected it to be drizzle with the temperature still at 37F but the dewpoint is 30F so I guess that's keeping it as snow to the surface. 

Different story up in Nanaimo, could be 10" up there by Thursday:

Yet, about 40 miles to the north of there it's completely dry. Looks like a pretty sharp snow gradient in between:

Just to the South Ladysmith is getting hammered:

Still pretty sloppy to the south of there though, this is at 1000ft asl near Shawnigan:

Didn't Nanaimo get nailed in December too?

[Gradient Keeper]

Uh oh... ECMWF server tonight. Status: Degraded

[Doinko]

Could be some snow tomorrow morning if Euro is right before the main event

[RentonHill]

Yep looks good for PDX

[ShawniganLake]

Picked up about 1/2” here. Much heavier snow just to my north. 
 

 

[Doinko]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Yep looks good for PDX

Hmm that's before the main event, all from the morning stuff. What are Kuchera totals?

[RentonHill]

Just now, Doinko said:

Hmm that's before the main event, all from the morning stuff. What are Kuchera totals?

Coochy is rolling out slower than 10:1 so I went for speed

[RentonHill]

Jk

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... Portland is going to do great!    ECMWF on board and all set.

[RentonHill]

Weeeeee

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... Portland is going to great!    ECMWF on board and all set.

Euro is now randomly showing a ton of snow before even the main event starts. Nothing like this on previous runs. Temps are a bit marginal but then crash and the real storm starts

[Perturbed Member]

GFS, Euro and ICON are showing a lot more snow tonight and into the day tomorrow too. 

This is 1 AM Wednesday AM, so 3 hours from now. Shows sticking snow here.