Jump to content

PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

That’s happened a quite a few times in recent years. We had a totally unforeseen snow on the morning of 12/2 and got 3/4” out of that. The night of 12/20 was barely even picked up on the models and that was another 3/4” snowfall. 

I always find it humorous when people say its snowing and the models didn't show it... when in reality that could come down to maybe .01 or .02 in precip.   Like we would ever hold the models to that degree of accuracy with drizzle.  😀

A map showing no snow or just light gray does not mean there won't be snow falling from the sky at some point.   In fact its almost a given that everyone will see snow falling this week.   How much is the big question.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET is fantastic

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

Wow. I’m starting to get excited. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

image.thumb.png.751733d1aedcb91e65772c6dacdd5369.pngimage.thumb.png.c99be7f0a4e9010e86206163454c3a17.png

Absolute beast trough LOCKED IN. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

I guess it depends on your definition of a bust. Most people couldn't care less about a couple of mornings in the low to mid 20s next week. At this point that's the only certain outcome.

Yeah, but none of this has actually happened yet.  I was just saying two weeks of solidly cold weather coming up is nothing to be getting upset about at this point.  Still a very anomalous pattern coming up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What in the world…

3EED0CF9-3834-4108-8592-7CC68FE4EF98.png

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Absolute beast trough LOCKED IN. 

That -NAO being shown now gives us a good shot at another round of continental cold in early March.

  • Excited 1
  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

WTF is the Euro smoking.  almost 5" of snow in Santa Cruz CA??  pretty sure that's never happened. (or if it has its deep in the records)  lol

I would take this to mean they might see at least some snow on the CA Coast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like another trough up at the end getting in line to drop south. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That -NAO being shown now gives us a good shot at another round of continental cold in early March.

Good point. That deep long range trough looks like it has less over water trajectory. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BTW this snow being shown for the South Sound has been getting better and closer to places like Tacoma.  Certainly within range that it wouldn't take much to bring it close to Seattle.

1677142800-qLeFdvb2fog.png

  • Like 7

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah, but none of this has actually happened yet.  I was just saying two weeks of solidly cold weather coming up is nothing to be getting upset about at this point.  Still a very anomalous pattern coming up.

Not sure you can really say we will have two weeks of solidly cold weather. At this point, it looks like two days of solidly cold weather before a return to mostly normal and another chance of a couple more cold days in early March.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next one dropping south. 

42556075-F4C5-4B96-8C02-D5626A32706F.jpeg

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good point. That deep long range trough looks like it has less over water trajectory. 

Two significant cold shots after Feb 20 would be pretty top drawer IMO.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Not sure you can really say we will have two weeks of solidly cold weather. At this point, it looks like two days of solidly cold weather before a return to mostly normal and another chance of a couple more cold days in early March.

850s stay in the -5 to -6 range indefinitely over SEA.  Not exactly returning to normal.  And in case you haven't noticed the model are indicating a -NAO developing which causes more cold to be forced into SW Canada.  I'm betting that in two weeks people are going to look back on their naysaying at this point and realize they were wrong.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

AF691960-51A1-45E2-B2DD-EC4820C83FDA.gif

Not seeing much returning to normal there.

  • Like 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Two significant cold shots after Feb 20 would be pretty top drawer IMO.

Yeah, even the shot early next week is decent and could produce some spotty lowland snow. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next one dropping south. 

42556075-F4C5-4B96-8C02-D5626A32706F.jpeg

Impressive!

I'm glad I'm not the only one excited about the prospects.  Phil explained this second round of cold last night.  Downwelling from the SSW comes home to roost by creating the -NAO.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Endless procession of troughs. Classic Nina late February/early March.

Yup.  A very amplified version though.

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Not sure you can really say we will have two weeks of solidly cold weather. At this point, it looks like two days of solidly cold weather before a return to mostly normal and another chance of a couple more cold days in early March.

What models are you looking at? Looks like a lot more than just two days of being below normal. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s also great that California looks to get absolutely slammed by these troughs too. 

  • Like 6

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we have a good shot at the next two weeks average 5 to 8 degrees below normal.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Not sure you can really say we will have two weeks of solidly cold weather. At this point, it looks like two days of solidly cold weather before a return to mostly normal and another chance of a couple more cold days in early March.

It's also relative. Normal is pushing the low 50s by the beginning of March, so it doesn't take "cold" weather for it to be solidly below normal. The next few weeks look like a very persistently cooler than average pattern.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would be remiss not to mention the 30th anniversary of the greatest willamette valley snowstorm of my lifetime is today. 

  • Like 3
  • Excited 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s also great that California looks to get absolutely slammed by these troughs too. 

They sure need it.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would be remiss not to mention the 30th anniversary of the greatest willamette valley snowstorm of my lifetime is today. 

We really got the shaft on that one.  Just a little bit of snow here.  That was still a decent cold winter here though.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's also relative. Normal is pushing the low 50s by the beginning of March, so it doesn't take "cold" weather for it to be solidly below normal. The next few weeks look like a very persistently cooler than average pattern.

If we land that second period of much below normal temps it could be a great 2 to 3 weeks coming up.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...