PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Brennan]

Anyone heard from TheNewBigMack aka Bryant? His last post was over a year ago. 

[Doinko]

On 2/17/2023 at 6:31 AM, TT-SEA said:

Wow... incredible for Portland with the cold trough next week.

Remembered this... King GFS??

[BLI snowman]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows snow on the ground around Portland until the last day of the run.    That would be an incredible stretch for so late in the season.

Record breaking for sure. Even our great late season big-leaguers of the 19th and 20th century didn't generally have more than 3-4 days of snowcover after February 20.

[smerfylicious]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

6th/Lenora

You two are so close to me. 8th/Virginia

[Perturbed Member]

That line of showers on radar look pretty nice. Snowing down to sea level near Astoria.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Record breaking for sure. Even our great late season big-leaguers of the 19th and 20th century didn't generally have more than 3-4 days of snowcover after February 20.

What are some big late season snowstorms for PDX in the past?

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

That line of showers on radar look pretty nice. Snowing down to sea level near Astoria.

Langley Hill radar looks good

 

[Requiem]

Kinda at a loss for what to expect-- I'm curious as to what the models latched onto the last 12 hours or so. What exactly changed? A more convective element to the system? Better low placement?

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Langley Hill radar looks good

 

If you believe the 00z Euro, it will start snowing here in the next hour and it will pretty much continue with varying intensity all the way until Thursday AM. 

I'm sure it will be too warm to stick mid AM tomorrow to late afternoon and there will be breaks in precip but the next 36-40 hours should be active especially for WA county. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ok what PDX poster paid off the ensembles?

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What are some big late season snowstorms for PDX in the past?

As far as I know, March had big events with 6"+  around parts of the metro area in 1989 (mostly eastside), 1960, 1956 (mostly westside), 1951, 1906, 1874, 1870, and I think in 1850 as well. So not ever super common.

The end of February has historically been pretty quiet on that front and had biggish snow events in 2018, 1971, 1962, 1917, 1882, and I think in 1852, but never anything with really widespread 6"+ accumulations that I can find. Even back to the 1850s. 

Edited February 22 by BLI snowman

[SimplySmoothWX]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ok what PDX poster paid off the ensembles?

Guilty as charged

[LowerGarfield]

@MWGand @TigerWoodsLibidoi can't sleep yet so give me a snow update or how it's looking so far?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Did I miss anything?

Ended up with a 47/37 day here. Afternoon high of only 43. Mostly cloudy with chilly showers today. Sure would be nice to pick up a couple inches of snow tomorrow evening.

[SpaceRace22]

First blizzard warning in LA NWS history. Calling for 7 FEET of snow and 75mph winds. Take that, Buffalo!!!

[Requiem]

Snowing and sticking at the moment.

[SpaceRace22]

The 06z ICON is going absolutely apeshit. Forest Grove/Hillsboro area is going to end up with 2 feet on this run.

[Perturbed Member]

34.3F and wet snow, of course not sticking. 

[RayRay]

20 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

First blizzard warning in LA NWS history. Calling for 7 FEET of snow and 75mph winds. Take that, Buffalo!!!

I want that here

[SpaceRace22]

06z is the first NAM run with meaningful snow inside the city limits of Portland. Still an awful run for almost everyone, but a dramatic improvement from previous NAM solutions.

3km:

12km:

[SpaceRace22]

HRRR coming on board for Portland now too:

[Perturbed Member]

00z 1.33km WRF is still crap for PDX

[Perturbed Member]

06z GFS is a bit weaker than the 00z run. 

[SpaceRace22]

06z GFS

 

[SpaceRace22]

Getting pretty close to the point where were models are meaningless and satellite/radar loops are going to be the better source of info. Good luck everyone!

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

06z GFS

 

Can you post the 06z RGEM?

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Can you post the 06z RGEM?

Pretty meh, except for far flung SW areas.

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Pretty meh, except for far flung SW areas.

This is definitely not bad by any means-- especially as it shows the potential west metro band enhancement we've been seeing on many of the models.

[SpaceRace22]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

This is definitely not bad by any means-- especially as it shows the potential west metro band enhancement we've been seeing on many of the models.

True, I'm just less of a fan because my parents live on the north side of Vancouver, which is where I'll be. So the Washington County specials don't get me off like some of the other runs have, lol

[Perturbed Member]

19 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Pretty meh, except for far flung SW areas.

I'm in the far western end of the metro so personally this works just fine for me. Though I really want the more widespread solutions to verify of course.

[Requiem]

Gonna head to bed-- still skeptical about any of this but considering every model is now showing at least 3-5 inches (and locally much more in spots) I'm confident that this will at least be a bonafide snow event.

[Perturbed Member]

06z GRAF

Still good for WA county but snowier downtown and areas north and east. Screws SLE like previous GRAF runs.

[Dave]

33 degrees with light snow. So far only sticking to grassy and elevated surfaces, but is great to see. 

[Perturbed Member]

06z GRAF explodes with over 0.70 in of QPF for PDX after the temp hits freezing or below tomorrow evening

[Doinko]

Weather.com is now forecasting 5-8" here

[Christensen87]

Weekend system looking even better now on 06z. 

[umadbro]

6z euro

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 38 at PDX 

[SpaceRace22]

Holy ******* Euro

[smerfylicious]

It's snowing in downtown Seattle right now.

[umadbro]

NWS completely disregarding the model trends. Basically saying it’s all over north of Salem. 

 

[Tyler Mode]

Almost identical to Valentine's Day, except a little less snow.  May a 1/4-1/2" here, on the roads, then it melts, then back on etc.  Still 33, just like Valentine's Day.

Edited February 22 by Tyler Mode

[Tyler Mode]

Cold air just filtering into the eastern Gorge.  Gradients just trended offshore.

[MillCreekMike]

Radar starting to fill in a bit in the North Sound. Had flurries the whole way from Everett to Edmonds

[TacomaWx]

Snowing in Tacoma but too warm to stick at 37.

[Timmy]

Snowing and sticking here 

[Snowdome]

Woke up to a nice trace of snow here in Oregon City.. but it’s very sloppy and melting already. Hoping tonight can verify going into the cold. 

[TacomaWx]

Down to 35 with fat flakes flying. About to drive to Redmond for work…radar looks fairly interesting up north. 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, umadbro said:

6z euro

How much of it falls after 00z Thu?

[Timmy]

Nws still isn’t biting. Crazy