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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Phil was mentioning how DC could have a high of 80 on Thursday, right as we likely see our coldest day of the cold snap, and I found that I interesting. I figured 80 had to be an all time February high for them out there but I did some digging and it appears they’ve been as high as 84 in February, and even 79 in January. Just insane.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

In the mean time, hit a low of 37 this morning and now it’s cloudy and 45. Weather has been kind of blah the last few days, and seems like temps have been exceeding guidance quite a bit (Mark forecast a high of 45 for PDX yesterday just a day in advance, it ended up eight degrees warmer than that) We also completely lost the cold nights after Thursday. This is going to water down February’s cold numbers compared to what they could have been, but the last week of the month should still really ice that monthly average.

Hey Andrew, I noticed the south valley has still been getting freezes every night since Valentine’s, including even scoring a freeze this morning. That’s good to see at least.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Is there a better duo then GEFS and pepto?image.thumb.png.d3a8531a710bbb0edf8107f81d151454.png

I love the beautiful colors.  For my area it usually needs to say 20-25" for us to get three or 4".  It's only showing 13" so that is pretty much going to yield nothing in my back yard.

It does look like an exciting pattern though with chances for other people.  Maybe Oregon can be the big winner.  Who knows?

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16 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

I love the beautiful colors.  For my area it usually needs to say 20-25" for us to get three or 4".  It's only showing 13" so that is pretty much going to yield nothing in my back yard.

It does look like an exciting pattern though with chances for other people.  Maybe Oregon can be the big winner.  Who knows?

I don’t care who the winner is as long as there are not big losers. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hey Andrew, I noticed the south valley has still been getting freezes every night since Valentine’s, including even scoring a freeze this morning. That’s good to see at least.

Clear skies doing their job. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Is it possible that there is general western troughing with the focus over CA but its not a pattern that buries us in snow over and over again?    That is what I am guessing based on the EPS.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7715200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tim in RARE form today!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim in RARE form today!

I trust in the EPS.   It looks chilly forever... but not necessarily that crazy.   We usually have generally quiet weather in western WA when the focus of the cold weather is over CA and desert SW.      

When I see a strong cold signal over SW BC on the EPS then its a good sign that it will get crazy... when its over CA its the opposite.     Not sure what is controversial about that.   You can tell me I am wrong... but I doubt its too far off.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I trust in the EPS.   It looks chilly forever... but not necessarily that crazy.   We usually have generally quiet weather in western WA when the focus of the cold weather is over CA and desert SW.      

When I see a strong cold signal over SW BC on the EPS then its a good sign that it will get crazy... when its over CA its the opposite.     Not sure what is controversial about that.   You can tell me I am wrong... but I doubt it’s too far off.

First of all your main point isn’t even valid. Anyone with a perspective on climo knows we aren’t going to get “buried.”

You also cherry picked a time when the 2nd trough has cut off over California on most models. It’s been part of the progression on the models for days now. Means nothing to the upstream.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pretty exciting to see basically the same setup on all the models and all showing a few inches of snow around PDX. 

Even the derpy NAVGEM shows that low sliding down the coast, east winds and the 516 line about to come through PDX.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_18.png

 

As @BLI snowman mentioned, the models seem to be picking up on some kind of interaction with the gorge outflow that is causing additional lifting and higher precip intensity. IMO that detail could allow some really good overperformance somewhere in the region.

If the 00z suite of models still looks about the same, I expect we'll start seeing changes on the forecasts from the local mets. 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First of all your main point isn’t even valid. Anyone with a perspective on climo knows we aren’t going to get “buried.”

You also cherry picked a time when the 2nd trough has cut off over California on most models. It’s been part of the progression on the models for days now. Means nothing to the upstream.

The strong cold signal goes from the north of us in the short term to south of us in the mid and long range. 

The strong cold signal in SW BC this coming week came into view during our first days in Hawaii which was 10 days ago now.   I said that was what I was waiting to see on the EPS.    And its happening.    

But the period after this week will not be nearly as active or crazy as this week... in my opinion.  

You can tell me I am wrong all you want... but I am not cherry picking and I don't think its going to be as crazy active as some are saying.     Below is later this week compared to the 5 day average later in the run.     

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7196800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8017600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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56 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phil was mentioning how DC could have a high of 80 on Thursday, right as we likely see our coldest day of the cold snap, and I found that I interesting. I figured 80 had to be an all time February high for them out there but I did some digging and it appears they’ve been as high as 84 in February, and even 79 in January. Just insane.

Phil is going to melt

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3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Pretty exciting to see basically the same setup on all the models and all showing a few inches of snow around PDX. 

Even the derpy NAVGEM shows that low sliding down the coast, east winds and the 516 line about to come through PDX.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_18.png

 

As @BLI snowman mentioned, the models seem to be picking up on some kind of interaction with the gorge outflow that is causing additional lifting and higher precip intensity. IMO that detail could allow some really good overperformance somewhere in the region.

If the 00z suite of models still looks about the same, I expect we'll start seeing changes on the forecasts from the local mets. 

 

I am concerned about snow actually sticking below 500’ outside of the heaviest band. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First of all your main point isn’t even valid. Anyone with a perspective on climo knows we aren’t going to get “buried.”

You also cherry picked a time when the 2nd trough has cut off over California on most models. It’s been part of the progression on the models for days now. Means nothing to the upstream.

Of course you’re not wrong, but also giving him exactly what he wants.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Pretty exciting to see basically the same setup on all the models and all showing a few inches of snow around PDX. 

Even the derpy NAVGEM shows that low sliding down the coast, east winds and the 516 line about to come through PDX.

navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_18.png

 

As @BLI snowman mentioned, the models seem to be picking up on some kind of interaction with the gorge outflow that is causing additional lifting and higher precip intensity. IMO that detail could allow some really good overperformance somewhere in the region.

If the 00z suite of models still looks about the same, I expect we'll start seeing changes on the forecasts from the local mets. 

 

I wonder if Mark Nelsen will jump on it now the Euro shows it too. I think he's off today though

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The strong cold signal goes from the north of us in the short term to south of us in the mid and long range. 

The strong cold signal in SW BC this coming week came into view during our first days in Hawaii which was 10 days ago now.   I said that was what I was waiting to see on the EPS.    And its happening.    

But the period after this week will not be nearly as active or crazy as this week... in my opinion.  

You can tell me I am wrong all you want... but I am not cherry picking and I don't think its going to be as crazy active as some are saying.     Below is later this week compared to the 5 day average later in the run.     

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7196800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8017600.png

No one is saying next week will be as active as this week. The trough early next week isn’t nearly as cold and a lot of the energy is going into Northern California. There will probably be a couple days where we have a chilly airmass and clear skies. 50/25 type days in the willamette valley. Very chilly for this time of year. The trough late next week is shown on some runs to be very impressive.

However, the models do show several

pulses of moisture moving into the pnw next week with low snow levels. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Of course you’re not wrong, but also giving him exactly what he wants.

I don't want anything.   Just giving my thoughts on the pattern.    Andrew is giving his thoughts as well.    When the current arctic event came into view on the EPS... I was immediately on board and said it would happen. That strong cold signal on the EPS in SW BC is absolutely, 100% the best sign of something coming.    Its foolish to ignore.

When the EPS shows the cold signal over CA and desert SW then it means something quite different.   

That is my take.    Everyone has a take.   Maybe I am totally wrong... and so be it.    But I have explained my reasoning.   Its not trolling... its just thoughts on the pattern.  

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Of course you’re not wrong, but also giving him exactly what he wants.

Good point. I’ve always felt he is a way bigger weenie than he acknowledges and is probably upset everything this week has trended south. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am concerned about snow actually sticking below 500’ outside of the heaviest band. 

Yeah there is a bit of an issue with the steadiest precip happening before it really gets cold enough. Combine that with the fact that the cold air advection is almost always slower in reality than modeled and it is absolutely a concern. 

The Kuchera map on the Euro confirms that a lot of the snow in the north and central valley is the non-sticking variety unfortunately. It looks ok in PDX for now due to closer proximity to the gorge and additional convergence/lifting of the precip from the easterlies. 

snku_acc-imp.us_nw.png

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't want anything.   Just giving my thoughts on the pattern.    Andrew is giving his thoughts as well.    When the current arctic event came into view on the EPS... I was immediately on board and said it would happen. That strong cold signal on the EPS in SW BC is absolutely, 100% the best sign of something coming.    Its foolish to ignore.

When the EPS shows the cold signal over CA and desert SW then it means something quite different.   

That is my take.    Everyone has a take.   Maybe I am totally wrong... and so be it.    But I have explained my reasoning.   

 

 

The issue is you are arguing a point no one is making. I haven’t seen one person compare next week, or at least early next week, to what we have coming up. The other shot we might have is a little further down the road. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The strong cold signal goes from the north of us in the short term to south of us in the mid and long range. 

The strong cold signal in SW BC this coming week came into view during our first days in Hawaii which was 10 days ago now.   I said that was what I was waiting to see on the EPS.    And its happening.    

But the period after this week will not be nearly as active or crazy as this week... in my opinion.  

You can tell me I am wrong all you want... but I am not cherry picking and I don't think its going to be as crazy active as some are saying.     Below is later this week compared to the 5 day average later in the run.     

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7196800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8017600.png

When half your posts are shidding on people's innocent excitement for snow and cold, and you have multiple members calling you out on that, and dozens of others agreeing, maybe it's time to look inward and reflect on your actual intentions.

For what it's worth, this map looks great. A smoothed ensemble mean of a 5-day average more than a week out, still bringing in 'candy apple' negative temp anomalies to much of the PNW; it's nothing to dismiss. At the very least this looks rife with marginal snow opportunities up and down the westside.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good point. I’ve always felt he is a way bigger weenie than he acknowledges and is probably upset everything this week has trended south. 

Interesting take!   Maybe I am really just upset that my area won't be buried in snow.   Lets go with that.  

Side note... I want February and March to be active and bury the mountains.   👍

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah there is a bit of an issue with the steadiest precip happening before it really gets cold enough. Combine that with the fact that the cold air advection is almost always slower in reality than modeled and it is absolutely a concern. 

The Kuchera map on the Euro confirms that a lot of the snow in the north and central valley is the non-sticking variety unfortunately. It looks ok in PDX for now due to closer proximity to the gorge and additional convergence/lifting of the precip from the easterlies. 

snku_acc-imp.us_nw.png

I can almost promise there will not be widespread sticking snow on the valley floor. But wherever that band is focused could do well. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I wonder if Mark Nelsen will jump on it now the Euro shows it too. I think he's off today though

He might add another snowflake to his 7 day if things look good tonight but I doubt he will make a big deal of things until Monday or even Tuesday assuming the models hold.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows a quick hitting c-zone on Sunday morning... which is actually far more likely to bring snow to my area than the mid-week trough.   But this is followed by a SW wind and temps in the mid 40s in my area that same afternoon so still might not be worth having the snowblower ready.   😀

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7456000.png

I like the looks of that 7.3 over MBY!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

When half your posts are shidding on people's innocent excitement for snow and cold, and you have multiple members calling you out on that, and dozens of others agreeing, maybe it's time to look inward and reflect on your actual intentions.

For what it's worth, this map looks great. A smoothed ensemble mean of a 5-day average more than a week out, still bringing in 'candy apple' negative temp anomalies to much of the PNW; it's nothing to dismiss. At the very least this looks rife with marginal snow opportunities up and down the westside.

Show me where I have scolded anyone for being excited about snow.    Show me where I have told anyone what to like or not like.   Never happened... because I have no intention to do that at all.    I have been doing the opposite.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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