PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[bishbish777]

Looking for some advice from you kind folks. We're pretty new to the area and want to make the drive out to Leavenworth this weekend. Do you guys think I-90 will be passable with a Subaru Outback with snow tires? Don't wanna take any serious risks, but also don't wanna cancel for nothing. We were thinking of leaving around noon as the snow tapers off, but it looks like at least a foot will have fallen over the pass overnight.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Tiny spot of blue right over Tigard!

Looks like the south valley could do well too. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Mid NAM run

I’m gonna go on a limb and say the “Not Another Mistake” model can’t even make a mistake this weekend. 

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hoping the cold goes well into April and May!

Why stop the fun there? Let's spend most of July and August cloudy and below 65F! 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Thanks for your answer! This would make a lot of sense and frankly inexcusable. What about media coverage? Did they underplayed this as well? 
 

I swear, there are more useful stuff on here than from the NWS or media. Feel for those that were not prepared for this.

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

[Requiem]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What park is that? Looks like an awesome view.

Council Crest! Some of the best views in Portland, imo.

[Requiem]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Mid NAM run

The model is dead to me after yesterday

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Looking for some advice from you kind folks. We're pretty new to the area and want to make the drive out to Leavenworth this weekend. Do you guys think I-90 will be passable with a Subaru Outback with snow tires? Don't wanna take any serious risks, but also don't wanna cancel for nothing. We were thinking of leaving around noon as the snow tapers off, but it looks like at least a foot will have fallen over the pass overnight.

 

Saturday looks fine but, I won't be surprised if they will close the pass on Sunday for at least a few hours. It often closes with around a foot of snow due to accidents, so it really depends on how people drive and whether they have the right vehicles. Chains might be required on Sunday. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

Here's a good timeline

https://www.kptv.com/2023/02/22/first-alert-live-blog-afternoonevening-forcasts-brings-worries/

[SunAndSnow]

22 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Questions for PDX folks. 
 

Saw a bunch of road closures this morning in and out of the city. Did this somehow caught ODOT off guard? Or were the rates too much for them to handle? How did the NWS do? 
 

A week ago, the GFS showed a bunch of pepto across the region and I believe this verified to some extent with a large paint to brush that eventually got pinpointed down.
 

Hard to imagine that this wasn’t coming. 

NWS said trace-1”. Local mets too. Mark caved and said trace-4” right before. No winter storm warning issued until it was already underway. It caught ODOT/PBOT completely off guard. 

[thisisacreativename]

East winds are strong enough here to actually be heard inside.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

Was just going through the NWS PDX Twitter page. Just some horribly communicated stuff. Even when the advisory was put up they said T-1” below 500’. Then later attributed to the very high totals due to the front stalling out. 
 

The models showed this stall 36-48 hours prior. Incredible. 

[dhoffine]

Just now, thisisacreativename said:

East winds are strong enough here to actually be heard inside.

Its been blowing 24 hours straight out here in Enumclaw, longest prolonged wind event I can remember out here for a long time.  Its just won't stop...  Lost some shingles off the roof last night and today.

[TacomaWx]

28 now. Kind of disappointed we didn’t manage a high a bit cooler than 36…but for a late season blast it’s impressive. Temps still dropping quick despite strong east wind here. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Was just going through the NWS PDX Twitter page. Just some horribly communicated stuff. Even when the advisory was put up they said T-1” below 500’. Then later attributed to the very high totals due to the front stalling out. 
 

The models showed this stall 36-48 hours prior. Incredible. 

The biggest traffic problems were probably people in the west metro trying to get back home in the central and east metro when snow started falling there and not in the west metro. Then it starting snowing in the hills and everyone got stuck on US-26, and then the blizzard conditions in the hills/west metro after midnight just made it worse.

 

Overall it looks like the Metro ended up with 4-12" on average.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with a subfreezing high here today. Feels like a shallow win after getting shafted in the snow department. Amazing event north of here. My parents sent these pictures from Nanoose today where there was over a foot of snow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

That’s what separates Mark/Jeff from the rest. They are not afraid to give us last minute updates if models/obs rapidly change. I left work early yesterday largely due to Mark’s advice and I’m glad I did. Other Mets/NWS just stay quiet.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Its been blowing 24 hours straight out here in Enumclaw, longest prolonged wind event I can remember out here for a long time.  Its just won't stop...  Lost some shingles off the roof last night and today.

Probably why it hasn't been that windy here... its usually either Enumclaw or North Bend with these east wind events but rarely both at the same time.

[Cold Snap]

Weather.com says 3-5” IMBY Saturday night into Sunday morning. That would be really nice if it happened.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON 

[lowlandsnow]

NAM has temp at/below freezing for most of the Puget Sound/Portland area for this next round of precipitation 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Weiner Warrior]

GFS looks better with more precip for Seattle

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

NAM has temp at/below freezing for most of the Puget Sound/Portland area for this next round of precipitation 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There’s definitely a shot at snow after Sunday. 

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

NAM has temp at/below freezing for most of the Puget Sound/Portland area for this next round of precipitation 

Is that an anafront that it’s showing there?

[Doinko]

 

[lowlandsnow]

Better for Central/South Sound a bit worse for Portland area

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Kind of looks like the same thing the NAM was showing except further south.

[Perturbed Member]

GFS looks very snowy for Clark county, they should be able to resist the southerlies a bit better up there. I also expect the low lands in the coast range to do very well. Places like Banks, Buxton, Vernonia etc can trap cold air for a long time and are more shielded from the southerlies. 

This pattern is usually not at all good for most of the PDX metro for accumulating snow so I'm skeptical most of the city even sees an inch. Worth watching since the euro and gem have been showing a little snow for a while. 

[Doinko]

 

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

 

Hmm, these lows coming out of the south are a lot more interesting than the warm front + south wind snow setup. Much more potential IMO. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

GFS looks very snowy for Clark county, they should be able to resist the southerlies a bit better up there. I also expect the low lands in the coast range to do very well. Places like Banks, Buxton, Vernonia etc can trap cold air for a long time and are more shielded from the southerlies. 

This pattern is usually not at all good for most of the PDX metro for accumulating snow so I'm skeptical most of the city even sees an inch worth watching since the euro and gem have been showing a little snow for a while. 

You guys aren’t due to get nailed with snow for another 6 years! 

[RentonHill]

PDX gets it again

[Cascadia_Wx]

45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Why stop the fun there? Let's spend most of July and August cloudy and below 65F! 

Might take a big volcanic eruption, but someday...

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Might take a big volcanic eruption, but someday...

Just need to have persistent westerlies, troughing, and we need to not flash fry the hydrosphere. Things we've avoided every summer dating back to 2012.

[MossMan]

Already down to 25 degrees. DP 18. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Temps staying cold until April

[RentonHill]

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Was just going through the NWS PDX Twitter page. Just some horribly communicated stuff. Even when the advisory was put up they said T-1” below 500’. Then later attributed to the very high totals due to the front stalling out. 
 

The models showed this stall 36-48 hours prior. Incredible. 

Unbelievable.  They need to own it.  So many of us on the forum were talking about how ridiculously conservative they were being with the forecast.

[Gummy]

 For the Tuesday system the GFS and the CMC seem to keep the low further south. The Euro and ICON are more north.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just need to have persistent westerlies, troughing, and we need to not flash fry the hydrosphere. Things we've avoided every summer dating back to 2012.

Say what?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Nice!

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go again! WOW. PDX metro Widespread 6-10" highest totals east of I-205.

[TacomaWx]

Some of the March 1951 or 1971 analogs being tossed around might not be too far off. Very chilly pattern coming up next week for this time of year. 

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here we go again! WOW. PDX metro Widespread 6-10" highest totals east of I-205.

If you score that much again that would be INSANE. It is the GFS though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

If you score that much again that would be INSANE. It is the GFS though. 

Indeed it would, and true.

[SouthHillFrosty]

This could be the greatest back loaded winter for PDX

[Doinko]

 

[thisisacreativename]

25 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Better for Central/South Sound a bit worse for Portland area

I'll take it.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Temps staying cold until April

Its only February 23rd... chances are pretty decent that the second half of March is at least close to normal and the cold is focused in the east.  

[snow_wizard]

GFS has a low tracking south of Seattle early next week.  Big potential there.

In the meantime the temp continues to fall here even with the wind.  Currently 25.