PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Slushy Inch]

Freezing again Monday morning. Bit of a snow shadow for PS but still good.

[Slushy Inch]

Dam…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Dam…

Probably mid 50s that afternoon tho

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This sh*t’s only got brief window to trend north to MossMan’s abode. Still likely.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@FroYoBro what up playa?! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, MossMan said:

 

You cured my nausea

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably mid 50s that afternoon tho

Who are you? Tim?

[bainbridgekid]

DP down to 20 at BLI with nearly 30 mph Fraser Outflow. 

[SpaceRace22]

I'm off the next 4 days and very tempted to book a 7am flight to PDX to visit my parents.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Mid Valley Duck]

High res Canadian is further south but still packs a punch 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm off the next 4 days and very tempted to book a 7am flight to PDX to visit my parents.

Don’t do it you’ll jinx the whole thing 

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@FroYoBro what up playa?! 

Any snow yet?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

High res Canadian is further south but still lacks a punch 

Hope you guys do well, but a lot of these maps have a snow hole right over the heart of the valley down your way. That map is absurd. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Any snow yet?

Yeah, I’m still husslin for my first inch, but the ground is covered. These showers are weak so far this evening. Coast range has been hungry.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NAM removes any snow from the South Sound 

Talk about a bullseye for my location!! lmao

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM looks ridiculous for Sunday. 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM looks ridiculous for Sunday. 

[Doinko]

GRAF was a slight pullback for east metro, but shows 6-8" here

[SouthHillFrosty]

Light rain and 37 degrees

[Kolk1604]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

You posted a GFS snow map with plenty of pepto and it's under 200 hours. I'm so proud of you! 

[Doinko]

With the GRAF showing so much here and the other models looking great for PDX, I think I could see 6"+ with this if everything goes well

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM further north, buries PDX metro
00z GFS further north, nice widespread 3-5"
00z ICON further north
4z Zimbabwean WAY north up near Chad/Sudan
Euro ????

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM further north, buries PDX metro
00z GFS further north, nice widespread 3-5"
00z ICON further north
4z Zimbabwean WAY north up near Chad/Sudan
Euro ????

Further north and buries Seattle?

[Front Ranger]

PORTLAND'S TURN.

I don't need to even wait for the Euro...I'm all in.

[Meatyorologist]

Everyone in the Willamette from Salem up to Vancouver better be getting excited. I only reserve this kind of language for the most impressive setups, but I am highly confident someone in this area will recieve an excess of a foot of snow. And it may be a larger area than you think.

From what I am seeing on satellite, sfc obs, radar trends, this is big. An organized low wrapping and stalling just to the SW of the PDX metro area. A stout Arctic frontal boundary stalling along with it, also right over the area, for more than twelve hours potentially. And to top it off, moist SW'lies running into and overhead this boundary, with lapse rates above the sfc Arctic outflow remaining negative. That is BIG. Any met in this climate knows this is a red flag setup for a highly impactful snowfall.

It may not be Portland, but it will be someone. And they will get fkn nailed

[Gummy]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM looks ridiculous for Sunday. 

 

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow. Looks great. 
 

snowing here now with a breezy north wind.  I’m not really expecting much tonight for accumulation. Tomorrow evening is our better chance for more significant accumulation 

[Christensen87]

Next week looks chilly. 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM further north, buries PDX metro
00z GFS further north, nice widespread 3-5"
00z ICON further north
4z Zimbabwean WAY north up near Chad/Sudan
Euro ????

Euro: Buries Washington, but leaves Randy and our friends in Covington with nothing!

[Meatyorologist]

I'm just astonished at how anemic these mesoscale models are for the PDX area. This is a textbook setup for an overperformer on steroids. Someone not an hour ago brought up 1/10/2017 as an analog. That is fair and accurate.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Everyone in the Willamette from Salem up to Vancouver better be getting excited. I only reserve this kind of language for the most impressive setups, but I am highly confident someone in this area will recieve an excess of a foot of snow. And it may be a larger area than you think.

From what I am seeing on satellite, sfc obs, radar trends, this is big. An organized low wrapping and stalling just to the SW of the PDX metro area. A stout Arctic frontal boundary stalling along with it, also right over the area, for more than twelve hours potentially. And to top it off, moist SW'lies running into and overhead this boundary, with lapse rates above the sfc Arctic outflow remaining negative. That is BIG. Any met in this climate knows this is a red flag setup for a highly impactful snowfall.

It may not be Portland, but it will be someone. And they will get fkn nailed

Getting pretty excited now. The GRAF which Mark Nelsen seems to like a lot is showing 8" here and it nailed the Valentine's day snow, and the other models show as much too. We had 13" on 1/10/17 too

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Everyone in the Willamette from Salem up to Vancouver better be getting excited. I only reserve this kind of language for the most impressive setups, but I am highly confident someone in this area will recieve an excess of a foot of snow. And it may be a larger area than you think.

From what I am seeing on satellite, sfc obs, radar trends, this is big. An organized low wrapping and stalling just to the SW of the PDX metro area. A stout Arctic frontal boundary stalling along with it, also right over the area, for more than twelve hours potentially. And to top it off, moist SW'lies running into and overhead this boundary, with lapse rates above the sfc Arctic outflow remaining negative. That is BIG. Any met in this climate knows this is a red flag setup for a highly impactful snowfall.

It may not be Portland, but it will be someone. And they will get fkn nailed

Besides the NWS lol.

[Slushy Inch]

Sunday trough looking stout.

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GRAF was a slight pullback for east metro, but shows 6-8" here

This can't be ignored at this point I don't think. Every model but the NAM suite is showing Washington County as a prime location for semi-convective enhancement with some very very heavy snow accompanying it. This also isn't April-- it'll be cold and conducive for snow to stick. East and southeast metro in the city proper might not be the winners on this one.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You posted a GFS snow map with plenty of pepto and it's under 200 hours. I'm so proud of you! 

 

[MossMan]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

Next week looks chilly. 

Tim chilly (mid 40’s)? Or Jim chilly (low 30’s)?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GRAF was a slight pullback for east metro, but shows 6-8" here

Interesting. That shows 1” here the entire event. Let’s see how this model performs. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Tim chilly (mid 40’s)? Or Jim chilly (low 30’s)?

Low 40s at the warmest, upper 30s at the coldest.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Everyone in the Willamette from Salem up to Vancouver better be getting excited. I only reserve this kind of language for the most impressive setups, but I am highly confident someone in this area will recieve an excess of a foot of snow. And it may be a larger area than you think.

From what I am seeing on satellite, sfc obs, radar trends, this is big. An organized low wrapping and stalling just to the SW of the PDX metro area. A stout Arctic frontal boundary stalling along with it, also right over the area, for more than twelve hours potentially. And to top it off, moist SW'lies running into and overhead this boundary, with lapse rates above the sfc Arctic outflow remaining negative. That is BIG. Any met in this climate knows this is a red flag setup for a highly impactful snowfall.

It may not be Portland, but it will be someone. And they will get fkn nailed

I am ready to eat crow on this one, but I'm exceedingly bullish on this. Put it on the record. Sitting in my bedroom 200 miles away I am vicariously excited. This is the real deal. Yeah, the real deal real deal. And all who live in the area, or just like to see extreme weather events play out in real time, should be paying close attention to radar and satellite over the following 36 hours.