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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Dam…image.thumb.png.0f95b9e8496000ce5d7e122a6d723687.pngimage.thumb.png.32ec8e06ba2055fb9e571f8e5256835f.png

Probably mid 50s that afternoon tho 😢

  • lol 2
  • Snow 1
  • Sick 1
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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@FroYoBro what up playa?! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

High res Canadian is further south but still lacks a punch 

image.thumb.png.83c09b29bdd568efbcb406f194be8358.png

Hope you guys do well, but a lot of these maps have a snow hole right over the heart of the valley down your way. That map is absurd. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Any snow yet?

Yeah, I’m still husslin for my first inch, but the ground is covered. These showers are weak so far this evening. Coast range has been hungry.

  • lol 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NAM removes any snow from the South Sound 

6008CF11-CC69-43BE-B075-CC22C257000A.png

Talk about a bullseye for my location!! lmao

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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GEM looks ridiculous for Sunday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm just astonished at how anemic these mesoscale models are for the PDX area. This is a textbook setup for an overperformer on steroids. Someone not an hour ago brought up 1/10/2017 as an analog. That is fair and accurate.

  • Like 8

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM further north, buries PDX metro
00z GFS further north, nice widespread 3-5"
00z ICON further north
4z Zimbabwean WAY north up near Chad/Sudan
Euro ????

Euro: Buries Washington, but leaves Randy and our friends in Covington with nothing!

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Everyone in the Willamette from Salem up to Vancouver better be getting excited. I only reserve this kind of language for the most impressive setups, but I am highly confident someone in this area will recieve an excess of a foot of snow. And it may be a larger area than you think.

From what I am seeing on satellite, sfc obs, radar trends, this is big. An organized low wrapping and stalling just to the SW of the PDX metro area. A stout Arctic frontal boundary stalling along with it, also right over the area, for more than twelve hours potentially. And to top it off, moist SW'lies running into and overhead this boundary, with lapse rates above the sfc Arctic outflow remaining negative. That is BIG. Any met in this climate knows this is a red flag setup for a highly impactful snowfall.

It may not be Portland, but it will be someone. And they will get fkn nailed

Getting pretty excited now. The GRAF which Mark Nelsen seems to like a lot is showing 8" here and it nailed the Valentine's day snow, and the other models show as much too. We had 13" on 1/10/17 too

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Everyone in the Willamette from Salem up to Vancouver better be getting excited. I only reserve this kind of language for the most impressive setups, but I am highly confident someone in this area will recieve an excess of a foot of snow. And it may be a larger area than you think.

From what I am seeing on satellite, sfc obs, radar trends, this is big. An organized low wrapping and stalling just to the SW of the PDX metro area. A stout Arctic frontal boundary stalling along with it, also right over the area, for more than twelve hours potentially. And to top it off, moist SW'lies running into and overhead this boundary, with lapse rates above the sfc Arctic outflow remaining negative. That is BIG. Any met in this climate knows this is a red flag setup for a highly impactful snowfall.

It may not be Portland, but it will be someone. And they will get fkn nailed

Besides the NWS lol.

  • Like 4

2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 4

Number of 85+ days - 3 (Warmest so far - 86)

Number of 90+ days - 0

Number of 95+ days - 0

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GRAF was a slight pullback for east metro, but shows 6-8" here

GRAF_SNOW_00z.jpg

This can't be ignored at this point I don't think. Every model but the NAM suite is showing Washington County as a prime location for semi-convective enhancement with some very very heavy snow accompanying it. This also isn't April-- it'll be cold and conducive for snow to stick. East and southeast metro in the city proper might not be the winners on this one.

  • Like 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GRAF was a slight pullback for east metro, but shows 6-8" here
GRAF_SNOW_00z.jpg

Interesting. That shows 1” here the entire event. Let’s see how this model performs. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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