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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Everybody is saying it is snowing but there isn’t one photo or video….. gotta be fake 

Just snowed here again, its only  happening right at the end of the heavy showers rolling through, not worth the effort to snap a pic of small wet flakes.

Edited by GHweatherChris
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Just barely starting to stick to some surfaces-- not bad at all. Dare I say a good sign?

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

ecmwf-deterministic-portland-total_snow_kuchera-7218400.png

Lol wat?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I don’t know if the NBM means anything this close to the event but it does screw PDX and areas around it. Probably why the NWS isn’t on board.

CA817C52-54BF-4576-84F5-FE631B037059.png

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 2

Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86)

Number of 90+ days - 0

Number of 95+ days - 0

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I don’t know if the NBM means anything this close to the event but it does screw PDX and areas around it. Probably why the NWS isn’t on board.

CA817C52-54BF-4576-84F5-FE631B037059.png

Yeah, their warnings/advisories basically match that exactly. Not sure why they aren't even considering the usually better models showing more

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, their warnings/advisories basically match that exactly. Not sure why they aren't even considering the usually better models showing more

Both the Euro and the GFS agree you get significantly more, don’t they?

If so, wouldn’t worry. When both those two models agree about something, my experience is that it almost always happens.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Nice to see the GFS on board for the weekend snow now.  Looks like a good shot at a widespread 2+ inches.  In the short term the ECMWF is trying to catch some magic for King County tomorrow morning.  Nice little bullseye of snow showed up on the 12z and got bigger on the 18z.  Very close to here!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, their warnings/advisories basically match that exactly. Not sure why they aren't even considering the usually better models showing more

It kind of surprises me they are basically ignoring the ECMWF with how accurate it normally is with PNW snow events

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 2

Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86)

Number of 90+ days - 0

Number of 95+ days - 0

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Both the Euro and the GFS agree you get significantly more, don’t they?

If so, wouldn’t worry. When both those two models agree about something, my experience is that it almost always happens.

Yeah, the Euro shows around 3" and the GFS shows more than 8". The usually reliable GRAF model is also in the 5-6" range, and the RGEM shows 3-4"

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Just now, Doinko said:

Yeah, the Euro shows around 3" and the GFS shows more than 8". The usually reliable GRAF model is also in the 5-6" range, and the RGEM shows 3-4"

In that case, 3–6" sounds like a good guess for what you get. NWS is definitely dropping the ball by failing to get a warning out.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Rob-Cast

2/21/23 3:37 PM
Okay. I've been pouring over the latest data, guidance, and model soundings. Essentially a slice of the atmosphere overhead analyzing the temperature column, dewpoints, and winds. Based on the expected position and track of the area of low pressure here is my officially official forecast. I have narrowed down the area where the snow band may set up. This is where the heaviest snowfall totals will occur. I may fine tune this at a later date.
You had to know this was coming. It's me. It's me, Rob. C'MON!!!!
snow 2-39.png

2-39"

I love it! 

In preparation, everyone in this slice should: 

ddc38cbd7f6b14fbcf0be4ce09909dd6.jpg

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46 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dew point in Squamish is now -5°C and falling.

Wind has shifted in Agassiz and temps and dew points are now starting to tumble there.

It’s coming, and sooner than modelled.

The ones that actually work out are often faster than expected.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, their warnings/advisories basically match that exactly. Not sure why they aren't even considering the usually better models showing more

All models are onboard, especially for the west and south metro. Most importantly the Euro, GFS, GRAF, GEM and UKMET are all in pretty good agreement. 

It is only the NAM and NBM that are complete outliers relative to all those other models. 

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Just now, Perturbed Member said:

All models are onboard, especially for the west and south metro. Most importantly the Euro, GFS, GRAF, GEM and UKMET are all in pretty good agreement. 

It is only the NAM and NBM that are complete outliers relative to all those other models. 

I think it's possible we get 3-5" if we're lucky. Would like the cutoff to get a bit farther away but looks good so far. Nice to see an event that will favor this part of the Metro area more, haven't seen much of that maybe except 2/25/19 since 2016/2017

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It’s trying so hard to turn to snow but just not getting there. Had about 90% wet snow near Everett Mall Way on the way home but now I’m home and it’s mostly rain. The sadness of not having elevation on your side lol

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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The ECMWF is certainty showing some snow for King County tonight and early tomorrow morning.  18z is the best run yet for that.  We shall see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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