PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Doinko]

RGEM is good for this area but not really for the rest of the metro

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS for the Sunday system

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not expecting much more than what we saw on Valentine’s Day here (we got about 1/4”). Models have been pretty consistent on showing a dry hole over the east metro.

Fingered crossed that you guys manage at least 1-2 inches out that way. I suspect you will do better than Valentines day, still several models that show a few inches in areas north and east of PDX. 

[thickhog]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

RGEM is good for this area but not really for the rest of the metro

How much of that falls before 00z Thu?

[Doinko]

Just now, thickhog said:

How much of that falls before 00z Thu?

All of it is after 7pm Wednesday, so not phantom snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is in LOVE with the idea of lowland snow chances early next week. 

[NWbyNW]

Some heavy precip and snow in the mountains at this moment.  Heavy rain on Vancouver Island's west coast.  Not much going on in Oregon, which I didn't show (nothing going on actually).

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[NWbyNW]

[Doinko]

GRAF is still fantastic

[Cold Snap]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS for the Sunday system

Looks like it’s starting to get on board with the ECMWF and GEM.

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GRAF is still fantastic

Was just going to post it. Interesting that the GRAF is favoring northern areas. @Cascadia_Wx Does well here. 

Washington county looks like a pretty good spot for this event on all models except the NAM. 

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like it’s starting to get on board with the ECMWF and GEM.

It will probably get there eventually... but the 18Z was actually a small step back compared to the 12Z run.

[thickhog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Was just going to post it. Interesting that the GRAF is favoring northern areas. @Cascadia_Wx Does well here. 

Washington county looks like a pretty good spot for this event on all models except the NAM. 

 

GRAF is far less favorable to SE Washington County than other models. Someone is gonna do well, at least.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Was just going to post it. Interesting that the GRAF is favoring northern areas. @Cascadia_Wx Does well here. 

Washington county looks like a pretty good spot for this event on all models except the NAM. 

 

Yet the NWS has absolutely no advisory, warning, watch or even SWS here. They have a WWA for the central and south valley though

[joelgombiner]

Hope has changed over to snow in the last 20 minutes. It's coming. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

Yet the NWS has absolutely no advisory, warning, watch or even SWS here. They have a WWA for the central and south valley though

KING NAM

[LowerGarfield]

It was bright and sunny at 2pm now it's dark and very gray. Light flurries of snow currently. Nothing sticking but that was to be expected. 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Was just going to post it. Interesting that the GRAF is favoring northern areas. @Cascadia_Wx Does well here. 

Washington county looks like a pretty good spot for this event on all models except the NAM. 

 

Right now the WRF shows a bullseye around Newberg and the Chehalem mountains. Definitely wishcasting here but maybe that bullseye will move to and around the West Hills like the GRAF shows with a farther north solution and give this area a decent dumping of snow??

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm in love with the gfs between saturday night and Tuesday afternoon. Could be incredible here.

[Phishy Wx]

its snowed its balls off here most of the day with nothing to show for it

 

Sun Angle'd

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It will probably get there eventually... but the 18Z was actually a small step back compared to the 12Z run.

Not really sure I buy that front would produce such widespread lowland snow... Not sure what a good comp this late in the season would be for something like that. The timing is pretty good though, so that could be a big part of it. The energy the GFS swings in on Tuesday morning is much colder aloft and also has favorable timing. The setup Sunday morning really doesn't seem like one that would produce widespread accumulations, unless gradients are just completely dead. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ummm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Boom!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really sure I buy that front would produce such widespread lowland snow... Not sure what a good comp this late in the season would be for something like that. The timing is pretty good though, so that could be a big part of it. The energy the GFS swings in on Tuesday morning is much colder aloft and also has favorable timing. The setup Sunday morning really doesn't seem like one that would produce widespread accumulations, unless gradients are just completely dead. 

Yeah... its an odd situation on Sunday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If you live above 500ft the period between Saturday night and Tuesday could really be good. Alot of heavy wet snow but cold enough in many places.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Ummm

That's a great setup, very cold airmass, steady precip. Only issue for folks south of you is there would probably be a pretty decent south wind with that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its an odd situation on Sunday.

It looks like 1000' snow levels. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's a great setup, very cold airmass, steady precip. Only issue for folks south of you is there would probably be a pretty decent south wind with that. 

Even south of the low the snow levels will be very low.

[SnowySeeker50]

Small hail with the shower overhead.

[Phishy Wx]

I think the Arctic front/squall line is/got hung up/split on Mt Spokane, now two/three cells.  Also see some possible convection forming south of me.

 

Thunder Snow? 

 

 

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think the Arctic front/squall line is get hung up/split on Mt Spokane, now two/three cells.  Also see some possible convection forming south of me.

 

Thunder Snow? 

 

 

Looks amazing. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

In the NAM we trust🫡

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Boom!

Was that a boom for your backyard?   Because GFS shows mid 40s that day in Seattle.  

[JW8]

I believe the GFS is the only model showing meaningful snow on the East slopes of the cascades (this week and weekend), which is why I'm not trusting it's snow maps (even more than usual). Been following this area since I'll be in Suncadia this weekend.

[joelgombiner]

One plus of having this come through in late February is the improved convection potential. 

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Right now the WRF shows a bullseye around Newberg and the Chehalem mountains. Definitely wishcasting here but maybe that bullseye will move to and around the West Hills like the GRAF shows with a farther north solution and give this area a decent dumping of snow??

The possibility certainly exists. I think 1-3 inches is still the most likely outcome for our area but if the heaviest precip sets up over us, one of those 4-6 inch outcomes could verify.

I'm finding it hard to convince myself that this could actually happen since the west metro has been so allergic to snow in recent seasons but just about every model does show a few inches around here so some actual event is more likely than not IMO. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks like 1000' snow levels. 

Probable between sea level and 1500ft depending on location and distance from the coast or puget sound.

[Christensen87]

2 minutes ago, JW8 said:

I believe the GFS is the only model showing meaningful snow on the East slopes of the cascades (this week and weekend), which is why I'm not trusting it's snow maps (even more than usual). Been following this area since I'll be in Suncadia this weekend.

Suncadia should see some good snow Saturday night. I'll be in the Burg. 

[Phishy Wx]

quite interesting feature setting up on Spokane radar.  maybe even a Mesolow