PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[joelgombiner]

Positive splat test with this heavy shower. Temp dropped from 42 to 35 in the last hour or so. 

[GHweatherChris]

[RentonHill]

ICON already looking good for PDX

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

36.9°F.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Would being more on the NW side hurt my chances a bit?

I think anyone on your side of Cornelius Pass is sitting pretty.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nws upped totals for the valley. 

[rsktkr]

I'm soooo confused!

Can someone throw me a bone and tell me what I might expect here in McMinnville?

[thickhog]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

ICON already looking good for PDX

 

 

How is it gonna be cold enough for WaCo to get 2-4” by 1pm tomorrow?

[thickhog]

1 minute ago, rsktkr said:

I'm soooo confused!

Can someone throw me a bone and tell me what I might expect here in McMinnville?

Trace - 10”

[RentonHill]

Low res RGEM good too

[Perturbed Member]

Money

[RentonHill]

Crazy stuff man we’re 24 hours out and nobody knows what’s gonna happen. 
 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

I'm soooo confused!

Can someone throw me a bone and tell me what I might expect here in McMinnville?

Snow

[Perturbed Member]

00z RGEM puts a foot of snow right into downtown PDX 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately that is the band that is happening right now.    There is nothing more after that on this run and its already lifting north.

The thing the ECMWF has been showing comes later.  We'll just have to wait and see.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I'm ready to document the epic snow dumpage if it actually occurs .Hope its devastating! 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Crazy stuff man we’re 24 hours out and nobody knows what’s gonna happen. 
 

This the best scenario, not knowing, surprises are abound no matter how much a certain someone 's on posts with optimism.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The thing the ECMWF has been showing comes later.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Yeah... there was some snow on the ECMWF centered over Renton tomorrow morning.    

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... there was some snow on the ECMWF centered over Renton tomorrow morning.    

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35.8°F. Ratio of flakes to drops increasing.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON... very nice for the Portland area!    Particularly the areas on the south and west side of town.

[RentonHill]

You can see that outflow come through

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flurries in Medford.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

You can see that outflow come through

Snowing hard here again as that little band lifts north along the I-90 corridor.    Probably close to 2 inches here now. 

[Deweydog]

And now we’re back to these more convective runs…

[MossMan]

Looks like my area is done until Sunday. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34.9°F. Wet snow.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

Looks like my area is done until Sunday. 

There’s no telling what’ll actually happen tonight or tomorrow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

 

IR Loop

2/21/23 7:28 PM

It sure looks like our heavily anticipated low is developing along the far northern Washington Coast. All eyes on its track and where it stalls out at. Models are very good, but they aren't gospel and have struggled in these situations before. We shall see. Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

 

IR Loop

2/21/23 7:28 PM

It sure looks like our heavily anticipated low is developing along the far northern Washington Coast. All eyes on its track and where it stalls out at. Models are very good, but they aren't gospel and have struggled in these situations before. We shall see. Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

I think precip will be more widespread than modeled, what type and how much is the question.

[joelgombiner]

Outflow gradient steepening! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It was 35 degrees and light snow and now it has warmed to 38 with rain .  Retirement and getting the hell out of here can't happen soon enough. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like my area is done until Sunday. 

I think I have another half hour left before the arctic front wins and it dries up here. About what the model consensus was: some flurries as the front comes through, then dry. Until then: let it snow!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

 

IR Loop

2/21/23 7:28 PM

It sure looks like our heavily anticipated low is developing along the far northern Washington Coast. All eyes on its track and where it stalls out at. Models are very good, but they aren't gospel and have struggled in these situations before. We shall see. Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

I believe.  I also believe in Santa and the Easter Bunny.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

28 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Low res RGEM good too

 

23 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z RGEM puts a foot of snow right into downtown PDX 

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

And now we’re back to these more convective runs…

Peaking at the right time. 

Would love that bullseye right over PDX with 3-6 inches while the NWS is still talking about their Bayesian probability model showing a 43% chance of 0.5 inches of snow above 321 ft elevation. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34.5°F. Big flakes, coming down hard. Still no stickage.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Peaking at the right time. 

Would love that bullseye right over PDX with 3-6 inches while the NWS is still talking about their Bayesian probability model showing a 43% chance of 0.5 inches of snow above 321 ft elevation. 

Maybe we'll get our 1/10/17 repeat with the NWS forecasting barely anything

[SpaceRace22]

Not to be a big giant wet blanket, but a massive percentage of those 1 foot+ totals is probably phantom snow. It's all falling during the late morning/early afternoon tomorrow while it's 35 degrees.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Peaking at the right time. 

Would love that bullseye right over PDX with 3-6 inches while the NWS is still talking about their Bayesian probability model showing a 43% chance of 0.5 inches of snow above 321 ft elevation. 

Oooo points for using Bayesian