PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[MillCreekMike]

Ahh the toxic side of this place is showing

[joelgombiner]

Convective cell developing on p. 211. Take cover. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Dewey needs to post puppy photos asap 

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, Margaritaville said:

Olympia School District is closed today. Not sure about any others in Thurston.

Ty and Chris! My work centers around those two counties and Spokane so that's really helpful.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Almost up to 212 pages. This topic is boiling.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Ahh the toxic side of this place is showing

Cruelty is a difficult trait for some to overcome.

[RCola]

1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

The "National Blend of Models" strikes me as a useful, but flawed, tool. Blending together models with different skill levels, and models that are optimized for different purposes is not a great way IMO to generate forecast probabilities. 

 

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. One way that could be better is if the weighting of the models changed as a function of how far out the forecast was. Perhaps the mesoscale models are great for what happens over the next few hours, while the global models are not weighted as strongly. For one to four days out, the global models are weighted above ensemble and mesoscale models. After five days, the ensembles should probably get the most weight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In other news it is snowing moderately again here in Salem. 

[LowerGarfield]

18 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Puyallup schools were 2 hours late. They announced it an hour after snow had already stopped last night. I assume they were worried about ice, because we got a dusting that barely stuck to roads at all.

Much appreciated. How much did you get? Icy roads in your area this am?

[Gradient Keeper]

This sums up how it is out here. It's a ground blizzard with East wind gusts 40-50mph with 11 1/2" on the ground! AMAZING! I do hate that the wind blew most of the snow off the trees though. 12z Euro/EPS keeps the threat of lowland snow very real several times over the next 10 days! WOW! Moses Lake 19 F at 1 PM under clear skies and bright sunshine. That's incredible for late Jebruary. It's a Jebruary to remember!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still should post a solid negative temp departure. A lot nicer than racking up the NFL players in the summer.

[DRG]

Woke up to about 5" in Gasquet this morning.  Warmed up down here a fair amount this morning, lots of melting.  Then winds kicked up and now it's trying to stick again (vid).

House in PDX had 10"+ this morning according to neighbors (pic).

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This sums up how it is out here. It's a ground blizzard with East wind gusts 40-50mph with 11 1/2 on the ground! AMAZING! Click on [720] for HD quality. I do hate that the wind blew most of the snow off the trees though. 12z Euro/EPS keeps the threat of lowland snow very real several times over the next 10 days! WOW! Moses Lake 19 F at 1 PM under clear skies and bright sunshine. That's incredible for late Jebruary. It's a Jebruary to remember!

MVI_3376.MOV 29.7 MB · 2 downloads  

 

 

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, RCola said:

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. One way that could be better is if the weighting of the models changed as a function of how far out the forecast was. Perhaps the mesoscale models are great for what happens over the next few hours, while the global models are not weighted as strongly. For one to four days out, the global models are weighted above ensemble and mesoscale models. After five days, the ensembles should probably get the most weight. 

It may already work that way to some degree. They state that  it's "bias-corrected" but I don't see an explanation of how that works or what it means. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dewey needs to post puppy photos asap 

Here is one of dogs refusing to come back in this morning! 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, DRG said:

Woke up to about 5" in Gasquet this morning.  Warmed up down here a fair amount this morning, lots of melting.  Then winds kicked up and now it's trying to stick again (vid).

House in PDX had 10"+ this morning according to neighbors (pic).

It's a Winter wonderland. What river/creek is that? Looks like an amazing place to live. I'd be busy fishing.

[Doinko]

Went on a walk. Almost a ground blizzard at times, wind blew off all the snow from roofs and trees. Very nice outside though with the sun out and temps in the mid 20s.

 

[PuyallupChris]

21 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

This is very different than snow forecasted two weeks from now.

Ah. Clearly I just don't know how to interpret some data. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, RCola said:

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. One way that could be better is if the weighting of the models changed as a function of how far out the forecast was. Perhaps the mesoscale models are great for what happens over the next few hours, while the global models are not weighted as strongly. For one to four days out, the global models are weighted above ensemble and mesoscale models. After five days, the ensembles should probably get the most weight. 

I also think the nature of the event matters.

I can imagine the NBM being a more useful tool with a stratiform precip event with a well defined front and temperature overlay.

But in a more dynamic situation like a deformation zone with very nebulous boundaries and rapid changes like yesterday there's no way that looking at any model blend is the most accurate way to go.

[RCola]

8 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It may already work that way to some degree. They state that  it's "bias-corrected" but I don't see an explanation of how that works or what it means. 

As a mathematician who has visited the GFDL before, I'd be skeptical of that. Some of their techniques leave a lot to be desired. Then again, some of their techniques are incredible. It's a real mixed bag.

 

A lot of the stunted progress is unfortunately due to government budget cuts.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In other news it is snowing moderately again here in Salem. 

Some decent showers around the Valley it looks like. Maybe one or two will make it here

[PuyallupChris]

9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Much appreciated. How much did you get? Icy roads in your area this am?

Probably a quarter to half an inch.  It was surprisingly not icy, since it never really stuck to the roads it was fairly dry.

[SpaceRace22]

9 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It may already work that way to some degree. They state that  it's "bias-corrected" but I don't see an explanation of how that works or what it means. 

I'm sure it's bias corrected, but clearly their weighting for it is FUBAR. My biggest question is how it is translating so many low resolution outputs into such a high resolution forecast. If this event is any indication, it almost seems like it overcompensated when correcting for the effects of terrain bleed that cause the models to assume the entire area is at a higher elevation than it really is. Total guess here, but my gut feeling is that part of the issue has to do with this. Like how the 384hr GFS assumes all of the PNW is at 2,500ft in elevation, it almost seems like the NBM acts like all the valleys are at 0ft.

[Doinko]

42 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, I've got 30 here right now and I'm further from the gorge. Salmon Creek is probably 30-31.

Still 28 here. Very cold with the wind too.

[TT-SEA]

Just noticed that the ECMWF shows almost every night below freezing in Seattle.   Ironically... the only day that doesn't touch freezing is Sunday which is the day of the region wide snow event.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This sums up how it is out here. It's a ground blizzard with East wind gusts 40-50mph with 11 1/2" on the ground! AMAZING! I do hate that the wind blew most of the snow off the trees though. 12z Euro/EPS keeps the threat of lowland snow very real several times over the next 10 days! WOW! Moses Lake 19 F at 1 PM under clear skies and bright sunshine. That's incredible for late Jebruary. It's a Jebruary to remember!

MVI_3376.MOV 29.7 MB · 4 downloads

 

I just drove through that area and it was not that bad at all. Wow of all people i can't believe you would make up a story like this. 2 inches of slush at best there. WOW! 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just noticed that the ECMWF shows almost every night below freezing in Seattle.   Ironically... the only day that doesn't touch freezing is Sunday which is the day of the region wide snow event.  

Wow.. loving the 42/20 spread!

[DRG]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It's a Winter wonderland. What river/creek is that? Looks like an amazing place to live. I'd be busy fishing.

It's the middle fork of the Smith River.  Been coming here for decades (shared family place) and this is the first time I've been here when it's snowed more than once.  Just unreal beauty everywhere

[PuyallupChris]

23 minutes ago, JW8 said:

I thought schools were closed for "President's Week"? Which is why traffic has been so much better the last few days.

PSD was closed the 17th and 20th but not all week. And one of those was for teacher training, I believe. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Wow.. loving the 42/20 spread!

Guessing that day is sunny.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just a bit on the snowy side.

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dewey needs to post puppy photos asap 

The Arctic Hounds are all sleeping in the rumpus room and unavailable for photos at this time. They’re exhausted after doing the dirty work to put together this late season BLAST.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm sure it's bias corrected, but clearly their weighting for it is FUBAR. My biggest question is how it is translating so many low resolution outputs into such a high resolution forecast. If this event is any indication, it almost seems like it overcompensated when correcting for the effects of terrain bleed that cause the models to assume the entire area is at a higher elevation than it really is. Total guess here, but my gut feeling is that part of the issue has to do with this. Like how the 384hr GFS assumes all of the PNW is at 2,500ft in elevation, it almost seems like the NBM acts like all the valleys are at 0ft.

Thank you for posting a bunch so far. It's great when events like this bring in new folks or people who don't post super often.

[Doinko]

Wonder if these showers will make it up here
 

[Phil]

Living vicariously through y’all. Nothing quite like bust in the snowy direction.  Looking forward to more pics and videos.

[RCola]

Snow or no snow this round, here's something that may or may not put a smile on your face: DCA set a new daily max temperature of 81F today: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDCA.html . My condolences, Phil.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wonder if these showers will make it up here
 

Alas, gonna get shredded.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe it will also hit 80 degrees here in late March like it did in 2019.   I can dream.  

It hit 81°F here today. Warmer than North Bend’s average high in the meat of summer.

Wayyy too early for this s**t. I’m not remotely ready.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Living vicariously through y’all. Nothing quite like bust in the snowy direction.  Looking forward to more pics and videos.

PDX now has more snow on the season than Boston.

May not last long but we'll take the W anyways....

[Doinko]

Only up to 29 at PDX so far

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It hit 81°F here today. Warmer than North Bend’s average high in the meat of summer.

Wayyy too early for this s**t. I’m not remotely ready.

Glad to see you are still thinking of me!   Even though North Bend and Seattle have basically the same average highs in the summer.  

[JW8]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just a bit on the snowy side.

I get tripped up by cm's EVERY time.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

Snow or no snow this round, here's something that may or may not put a smile on your face: DCA set a new daily max temperature of 81F today: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDCA.html . My condolences, Phil.

Trash weather. I’m not remotely acclimated and was sweating like a pig walking around campus the sun (as were many others, lol).

Would be a beautiful day by summer standards, but this simply does not belong in February. Period.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX now has more snow on the season than Boston.

May not last long but we'll take the W anyways....

Judah in a shambles.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Glad to see you are still thinking of me!   Even though North Bend and Seattle have basically the same average highs in the summer.  

I replied to your post about 80 degree weather, hence the NB reference. Don’t flatter yourself.  

[Doinko]

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX now has more snow on the season than Boston.

May not last long but we'll take the W anyways....

Has that ever happened before? Would be one hell of a feat. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

I replied to you, hence the NB reference.  

Ahhh... I missed that part.  

[RCola]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Trash weather. I’m not remotely acclimated and was sweating like a pig walking around campus the sun (as were many others, lol).

Would be a beautiful day by summer standards, but this simply does not belong in February. Period.

NWS has a 30% chance of snow showers early on Saturday, so I guess that's something small to look forward to. Certainly a subfreezing low, which has become a big deal over that way.

Sometimes I miss the crazy temp swings in the east, but that SE ridge in Feb I don't miss.

[Gradient Keeper]

26.6 with relentless 40mph+ east winds.