PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Between 7-10 PM tonight.

Pretty much guaranteed that it won’t happen since it’s the wrf

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Between 7-10 PM tonight.

god that would be SICK. Doesnt look like a true CZ more of a pivoting band of showers that rotates around the PS? 

[RentonHill]

Euro picked up on it a little bit

[Slushy Inch]

Still waiting for the GEFS to calm down.

[OysterPrintout]

looks like the 12z GRAF broke (at least mark's link I use to grab it did). FWIW, despite it showing 3-5" pretty consistently, it's been smart enough to not take much of a bite at the phantom snow. Those 2 things are totally unrelated perhaps but maybe it's just the smartest person in the room!

[ShawniganLake]

Always like having the HRDPS on board.  Shows strong Fraser outflow with steady snow falling here tomorrow evening and temps in the mid 20s. Would be incredible. 
 

 

[TacomaWx]

Hmmm appears a convergence zone band may be setting up right where I’m working in Redmond currently. 

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Euro picked up on it a little bit

Unfortunately... it thinks that central King County snow has already happened this morning. 

This is what the ECMWF shows for what has occurred between 4-10 a.m. today.

 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately... it thinks that central King County snow has already happened this morning. 

This is what the ECMWF shows for what has occurred between 4-10 a.m. today.

 

Wow this model sucks

[SouthHillFrosty]

What do we think of the WRF-GFS convergence zone. I would put money on it not happening

Edited February 21, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Hmmm appears a convergence zone band may be setting up right where I’m working in Redmond currently. 

Looks pretty dark over there! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What do we think of the WTF-GFS convergence zone. I would put money on it not happening

WTF?   WRF.

And in terms of c-zone placement for the same day... have to go with ECMWF if it is different than the WRF.   

Here is what the ECMWF shows for the next 24 hours which covers everything for the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

And the next 24 hours from early tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday afternoon.

[OysterPrintout]

Euro is LOCKED IN with 0.75" of snow here

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

WTF?   WRF.

And in terms of c-zone placement for the same day... have to go with ECMWF if it is different than the WRF.   

Here is what the ECMWF shows for the next 24 hours which covers everything for the Seattle area.

WRF or WTF is the same. That model doesn’t have any idea what is going on

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And the next 24 hours from early tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday afternoon.

Hopefully the precip will spread further north in reality but the euro has gotten fairly consistent on this and there are other models that also show this idea of keeping the steadiest precip just south of PDX. 

I will probably stick with 1-3 inches for myself in the west metro but it looks like some parts of town will unfortunately see less than that. 

[GHweatherChris]

Rain/snow mix here!!

[westcoastexpat]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....people are really losing sight of what an impressive late season event this is going to be.  Besides that it looks to go on for a long time.  Even when it moderates it will still be well below normal, and we might see another round of much below normal later on.

We could be looking at an impressively cold Nov - Mar average this time around.

Are you really that surprised that folks aren't giddy about highs of 40 and lows of 30?

Your obsession with seasonal anomalies is... interesting!

[Perturbed Member]

Euro still showing overrunning snow this weekend

[Prairiedog]

43f at 4am and bottomed out at 40f by 9am.  .04 since midnight.  Chickens are pacing.  Not sure what that means.  I did hear my girls, all 22 of them say something about white lava but couldn't be sure.  A friend lives on Chehalem Mtn out of Newberg.  35f and some gloppy rain at 1,300ft there. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Rain/snow mix here!!

Might be the best event of the winter the next couple days out there. Precip shouldn’t be as big of an issue as it will here. 

[TT-SEA]

Sunday morning event per ECMWF... looks like most of this falls between 2-6 a.m. that day.    It also shows a fairly strong SW wind developing by 7 a.m. and continuing through the day with gusts close too 40 mph in Seattle.

[Dave]

NWS going with 3 straight sub 40's highs down here. This time of year that usually means it'll be chilly and close to freezing most of the day with a brief spike or two in the afternoon because sun angles. 14 and 16 degree lows. This will be enjoyable regardless of how much snow falls.

[Prairiedog]

Looks like a pretty good band of moisture moving over and east of I5 through LO, OC, and points east.  Some of it looks a little heavier.  Could drop temps a degree or two.  Might get some hail out of that or chunky rain maybe. 

[FroYoBro]

Already getting some big splats on the windshield with this first decent shower.  Didn’t think I would see flakes so soon. The next 48 hours should be entertaining! 

Edited February 21, 2023 by FroYoBro

[MossMan]

I have a massive cleanup on my hands…

Power is back on! Only an 11hr outage so super short for my area! 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday morning event per ECMWF... looks like most of this falls between 2-6 a.m. that day.    It also shows a fairly strong SW wind developing by 7 a.m. and continuing through the day with gusts close too 40 mph in Seattle.

This is trending very nicely.  Big snow day for parts of Vancouver. 

[Prairiedog]

15 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Hopefully the precip will spread further north in reality but the euro has gotten fairly consistent on this and there are other models that also show this idea of keeping the steadiest precip just south of PDX. 

I will probably stick with 1-3 inches for myself in the west metro but it looks like some parts of town will unfortunately see less than that. 

What's your elevation?  You in the West Hills or a flatlander?

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, MossMan said:

I have a massive cleanup on my hands…

Power is back on! Only an 11hr outage so super short for my area! 

Wowzers.  Good luck. Hopefully your chainsaw is all ready to go. 

[LowerGarfield]

Still breezy here but the strongest winds appear to be subsiding. Haven't had the wind shift yet.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What do we think of the WRF-GFS convergence zone. I would put money on it not happening

It shows me getting completely skunked. Because this is the WRF we are talking about, I am not taking it seriously.

[Requiem]

40 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Always like having the HRDPS on board.  Shows strong Fraser outflow with steady snow falling here tomorrow evening and temps in the mid 20s. Would be incredible. 
 

 

 

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the next 24 hours from early tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday afternoon.

Excellent

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

This is trending very nicely.  Big snow day for parts of Vancouver. 

Southerly flow with entrenched low-level cold banking against the mountains can be very good for metro Vancouver.

[Slushy Inch]

Woah! A W for GEFS? Do need to minus what was supposed to already have fallen.

[RentonHill]

@AlTahoe ...remains f u c k e d

 

[Slushy Inch]

Post overrunning.

[GHweatherChris]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Might be the best event of the winter the next couple days out there. Precip shouldn’t be as big of an issue as it will here. 

Yep, potential is there.  We are now in the moment, no snow maps or constant reminders of SW winds can change that or are needed.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Update from Steve Pierce.

SNOW CHANCES INCREASING
SOLID FREEZE ON THE WAY
Updated: 10:15AM Tuesday 2/21

Modified arctic air will arrive after sunset on Wednesday along with moisture from a Pacific system. The two are likely to bring snow to the valley floor and all the way out to the coastline. Thursday morning commute will likely be impacted, along with the potential for school cancellations. 

TIMING / DETAILS:

Models are in nearly complete agreement now that colder air will be pulled through the Columbia River Gorge and across the Portland metro area beginning Wednesday afternoon. At the same time, a system of the coast will spread bands of consolidated snow showers over the valley from Longview south to Eugene. East wind will increase across the metro area Wednesday with temperatures dropping to near freezing during or just after the evening commute.

Snowfall models indicate between a dusting to as much as 4" of snow could fall across the metro between Longview and Eugene beginning at or just after sunset Wednesday. This also includes the Oregon coastline from Newport north to Astoria. Temperatures will continue to plummet Wednesday night under continued snow showers and cold easterly gorge wind.

By sunrise on Thursday morning, the metro area will be solidly frozen with snowfall likely on the ground in areas, causing travel problems for the Thursday morning commute. Snow should taper off by sunrise on Thursday morning. 

BOTTOM LINE:

Cold air arrives late tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday evening at the same time as moisture from a Pacific frontal system. Temperatures fall below freezing Wednesday evening after sunset, with continued snow showers. Anywhere from a dusting to 4" of snow is possible in the valley anywhere between Longview and Eugene, including the Oregon coastline. The average of all major models is approximately 2" to 3" in the Portland metro area. A solid freeze is on the way Wednesday night. Expect commute problems Thursday morning with school closures likely.

High temperatures will struggle to get into the 30s on Thursday afternoon, with low temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday dropping into the teens and lower 20s with another hard freeze on the way. Daytime temperature moderation into the low 40s is likely by Friday.

Stay with the KOIN 6 weather team for the latest updates on air and online 24/7.

Steve Pierce 
KOIN 6 Meteorologist

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Yep, potential is there.  We are now in the moment, no snow maps or constant reminders of SW winds can change that or are needed.

Some people also track and enjoy wind and its a noteworthy weather event.   Sunday afternoon looks like the next decent wind event per the ECMWF.