PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wife says its dumping snow up at the house again, but so far just a dusting. Unfortunate we are burning through the bulk of available precip during the peak of daytime heating. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wife says its dumping snow up at the house again, but so far just a dusting. Unfortunate we are burning through the bulk of available precip during the peak of daytime heating. 

Per the ECMWF... the same thing is happening up here.    Its been pretty consistent in showing the precip ending around King County by 5 p.m. today just when it starts to get dark.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Per the ECMWF... the same thing is happening up here.    Its been pretty consistent in showing the precip ending around King County by 5 p.m. today just when it starts to get dark.  

Precip actually keeps going until

after midnight down here, so I’m sure we ll get an inch. 

[Requiem]

Flakes were definitely falling just a bit ago. If there's any time I can rely on my elevation...

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Cloud]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That stupid NAM map sent me over the edge…I have had nearly 3” of rain in less than 3 days but when it becomes cold enough for snow I will get .02” (if I’m lucky) of precip over the next 4 days.  
Then maybe 1.5” of slop Sunday morning before turning to rain! Yay! 

I’m ready for summer. 
I never sleep well when the power is out…It’s way too quiet. I’m cranky. 

If it makes you feel any better and as I’ve said in the previous post… I think I’ve gotten 1.5-2” all season. Most exciting was probably the flash freeze event and then the ice storm. 
 

Either way, meh, I don’t have much expectations for this time of year. Pretty much been ready for spring since I got back couple weeks ago.

[Phishy Wx]

Sun Angle'd

[Perturbed Member]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really wish we could see what the GRAF is showing right now. 

18z GRAF should be out around ~2:20 PM. I'm sure it will carry some weight in terms of what forecast Mark ends up making tonight. 

[Phishy Wx]

dumping here too with nothing to show for it

34, DP 33

[TT-SEA]

Sun is out in Bellingham now...

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

dumping here too with nothing to show for it

34, DP 33

Well if Spokane isn't getting any accumulation, I certainly won't tonight then. Yet I'll still put my board out like a wide eyed newbie.

How's the wind up there? I bet you have much more of that NE wind now.

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Kind of a bummer. Progs look a bit less dynamic than they did 24-36 hours ago. Starting to look like a pretty traditional wringing out of remnant moisture as opposed to a widespread event with sustained isentropic lift. I imagine there will still be some echo training for some lucky folks though. 

Getting a fairly broad area with 1-2 inch totals going into a multi-day period of cold still seems possible. It isn't the 4-10 inch stuff some models had over the weekend but I think it would still please given our low bar here.  The 0.2 in PDX season total is at serious risk!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun is out in Bellingham now...

Been mostly sunny all day here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Live look in Albany! 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Well if Spokane isn't getting any accumulation, I certainly won't tonight then. Yet I'll still put my board out like a wide eyed newbie.

How's the wind up there? I bet you have much more of that NE wind now.

it's pretty calm currently.  awaiting the Arctic front.  looks like its south of Sandpoint now headed toward CDA

[Phishy Wx]

Airport is just spitting planes right now, they must be trying to get out ahead of the squalls

[Phishy Wx]

Squall/Arctic Front about 45min ish from me now, should be a decent convergence if this band we have over Spokane area stays in place

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The QPF king (ICON) keeps Portland almost entirely dry tomorrow on the 18z.

[Slushy Inch]

EPS, are you ok? Blank temps.

[joelgombiner]

The sun is shining and it's crystal-clear above me, with dark clouds to the north and south. 

[Requiem]

6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The QPF king (ICON) keeps Portland almost entirely dry tomorrow on the 18z.

The QPF king that is either egregiously wet or far too dry 85% of the time?

[Prairiedog]

Pretty active line of showers moving through.  Temp dropped from 41 to 38 with some flakes and then soft hail.  Drove up Springwater Rd (above Estacada) and hit a 50/50 mix at 650ft.  At 1K temp was only 37 but patches of a slushy dusting in spots.  I was about 5 min ahead of the this shower line so temps will probably drop enough to put some snow down there.  I was in between showers as there as there was already a little snow.  Couldn't hang around and wait to see what was going to happen.  I was surprised the atmosphere had cooled this much to bring some splats down to 315' at my home. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z ICON

[Perturbed Member]

ICON looks fine for south and west metro still. Sharp cutoff to the north and east.

 

[Sandy rocks]

It is 37 here in Sandy. It has been mixed since early this morning. We had grapple last night after the monsoon rains.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty good 18z GFS run, looking pretty snowy for western OR.

[Perturbed Member]

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS with WA and SW BC included

[Perturbed Member]

It should be added that there is some phantom snow thrown into these 18z GFS totals since the GFS believes there will be some sticking snow before tomorrow night. IMO that would be pretty unlikely. 

Regardless, it shows a pretty nice progression for tomorrow night into Thursday AM. Would be snowy for much of the valley if it verifies. 

[MossMan]

The sun is out. 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS with WA and SW BC included

Looks fantastic

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I could be in a good spot . 

[TacomaWx]

Pretty good hail shower coated surfaces here in Redmond a bit ago. Made a hail ball.

[Doinko]

17 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It should be added that there is some phantom snow thrown into these 18z GFS totals since the GFS believes there will be some sticking snow before tomorrow night. IMO that would be pretty unlikely. 

Regardless, it shows a pretty nice progression for tomorrow night into Thursday AM. Would be snowy for much of the valley if it verifies. 

Yeah, all of this is probably phantom snow. Still a good 6-8" after that though

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Not expecting much more than what we saw on Valentine’s Day here (we got about 1/4”). Models have been pretty consistent on showing a dry hole over the east metro.

[Cascadia_Wx]

43 here with a shower moving over. Have had some chunky rain at times today. Midnight high of 47 so far and a morning low of 39.

Ended up with a mostly cloudy and breezy 50/44 day yesterday.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It should be added that there is some phantom snow thrown into these 18z GFS totals since the GFS believes there will be some sticking snow before tomorrow night. IMO that would be pretty unlikely. 

Regardless, it shows a pretty nice progression for tomorrow night into Thursday AM. Would be snowy for much of the valley if it verifies. 

Not IMBY. Arctic front sweeps in tonight. Even a light snowfall could make a mess if it flash freezes.

[thickhog]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, all of those is probably phantom snow. Still a good 6-8" after that though

 

I think it’s more like 4” unless snow sticks earlier than expected. The closer to Newberg you are, and the higher your elevation, the better. That NW/SE line will be brutal for someone if it happens as modeled. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, thickhog said:

The closer to Newberg you are, and the higher your elevation, the better. That NW/SE line will be brutal for someone if it happens as modeled. 

I think your area will do pretty good. Nice to see that area probably in a good place for once

[MossMan]

Memories!