PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[dhoffine]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We should get 2-3 inches with the main front.   Interestingly the models show the strongest SW wind gusts in the foothills on Sunday.    But it will be a cold SW wind with convective precip and sun breaks.     There could be occasional snow out here in the post-frontal action despite a roaring SW wind.   Unusual set up.

Hey, 2-3 inches is something, but D**n, wanted more . 

[WildrootParable]

Well, that was unexpected! It's about 26 degrees out there and I think we got a solid 3 inches! It's VERY fluffy and powdery. Reminds me of being in the mountains. I guess our 500' elevation helped us out, this time around!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Hey, 2-3 inches is something, but D**n, wanted more . 

This period from sunday through next week is very much like a period i had in feb 19. There will be a ton of wet snow here next week above 500ft. Between sunday and friday i would imagine i should get 10-14 inches total.

[ChrisAmunRA]

DP 6 here in Belltown Seattle 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

On 2/19/2023 at 2:17 PM, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd guess you will get between 8-14 inches. My prediction,   13 inches of snowfall between Monday night and Thursday morning.

Boom!! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Stunning morning here. Partly sunny and 25 degrees after a low of 24. East winds coming in gusts of 35-40mph and swirling snow everywhere. Haven’t gone out and measured since last night, but it looks like we ended up right around 10”, maybe a little more.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Boom!! 

This was for Andrew's area. He got 11.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

DP 6 here in Belltown Seattle 

This ridiculously dry air is what sets the stage for Saturday night.    The upper levels are not that cold with that system and it would just be cold rain for the most of the lowlands without this pre-existing air mass.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Stunning morning here. Partly sunny and 25 degrees after a low of 24. East winds coming in gusts of 35-40mph and swirling snow everywhere. Haven’t gone out and measured since last night, but it looks like we ended up right around 10”, maybe a little more.

FUKKK YES!!!

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This ridiculously dry air is what sets the stage for Saturday night.    The upper levels are not that cold with that system and it would just be cold rain for the most of the lowlands without this pre-existing air mass.  

Dynamics!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This ridiculously dry air is what sets the stage for Saturday night.    The upper levels are not that cold with that system and it would just be cold rain for the most of the lowlands without this pre-existing air mass.  

And we are going into another chilly post shower air mass so the snow wont just melt very fast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thinking there will be some totals in the sw washington nw oregon area in the 10-16 range when this is over.

BOOM AGAIN!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And we are going into another chilly post shower air mass so the snow wont just melt very fast.

Yeah... the models show low 40s on Sunday but with a dewpoint around 30.     Can't remember that much dewpoint suppression with a strong SW wind.    The ECMWF shows the SW wind could gust close to 50 mph in the foothills on Sunday afternoon and yet any precip would likely be some sort of frozen variety.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty wild to see PDX holding at 26 degrees as of 9am. If there’s a day they have a shot at their first ever sub-freezing high in the last week of February, it’s today. Widespread 8-10” on the ground, clouds at times, and raging east winds along with stout CAA.

Also pretty curious to see what happens with lows the next couple nights.

Edited February 23 by Cascadia_Wx

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Stunning morning here. Partly sunny and 25 degrees after a low of 24. East winds coming in gusts of 35-40mph and swirling snow everywhere. Haven’t gone out and measured since last night, but it looks like we ended up right around 10”, maybe a little more.

This was my favorite event of the winter so far. 

Because it was snowing in many places not just my area.

It was 23-24 degrees with wind and snow, very rare,

it wont get above freezing today at home with 5 inches on the ground. Very rare. 

[Phishy Wx]

Summit of HWY 17 in Santa Cruz Mtns around 1800'

 

 

[MillCreekMike]

This event reminds me of Feb 3rd/4th of 2019 up here. Had heavy 23 degree snow from a deformation band with a super brisk northerly wind for hours that resulted in 8 inches of beautiful powdery snow. 

[eastvancouver]

I think you guys will appreciate this. Last night at about 7 PM near the Camas/Vancouver border, while the snow was still falling.

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 days of meteorological winter remain, but that does not mean much. Could be another year where it's unusually cold into June and then summer hits with a vengeance in July. Spring is no longer a guarantee in our changing climate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the models show low 40s on Sunday but with a dewpoint around 30.     Can't remember that much dewpoint suppression with a strong SW wind.    The ECMWF shows the SW wind could gust close to 50 mph in the foothills on Sunday afternoon and yet any precip would likely be some sort of frozen variety.  

Low 40's where? Seattle proper or all of western washington? 36-43 will be a safe range most likely. I could see 40-43 around tacoma and 34-38 around shelton up through the canal and port angles.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Low 40's where? Seattle proper or all of western washington? 36-43 will be a safe range most likely. I could see 40-43 around tacoma and 34-38 around shelton up through the canal and port angles.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This was my favorite event of the winter so far. 

Because it was snowing in many places not just my area.

It was 23-24 degrees with wind and snow, very rare,

it wont get above freezing today at home with 5 inches on the ground. Very rare. 

But the thunder and snow i had in december was bad a**.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice little band on Monday 

[TT-SEA]

All these incredible snow reports while we barely have enough to coat the ground here.   No sun yet but it's probably coming soon.   Won't melt anything today though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Thanks, we will see. The euro has been really far off some places and good in others. You were right it struggles with this area over here with cold air pool.  I will bet money it wont be warmer than 36 here sunday.  It has been off as much as 8 degrees this winter for highs.

[umadbro]

Rod Hill says non event on Saturday night. 

[T-Town]

My home office is on the northeast corner of the house and on days like this our radiant heat system can’t keep up. Currently 64 in here. 

[Phishy Wx]

all of my snow cover literally blew away, wind still ripping.  just some random drifts in sheltered areas.  SCOURED!

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Timmy]

Washington county isn’t done yet

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

WOW

[yellowstone]

On 2/17/2023 at 11:08 AM, yellowstone said:

I’m dumbstruck that this is real. This event is 5 days away and they’re making 0.1” snowfall predictions?!?  Even with the range, this is insane. 

Re-upping this today for no particular reason. Hope this encourages them never to post something this detailed this far out again. Adding the photo directly to the post for clarity. 

 

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 27 degrees, dp 1.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Rod Hill says non event on Saturday night. 

He's probable hitting the moon shine again.

[Deweydog]

Sent by mom from the koast! Of course it accompanied a partially-decipherable text message…

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[Timmy]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Sent by mom from the koast! Of course it accompanied a partially-decipherable text message…

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

Seeing some reports of snow from Boulder Creek (under 1,000' elevation) in that thread. Now that’s unusual!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Sent by mom from the koast! Of course it accompanied a partially-decipherable text message…

Over near ocean shores?

[westcoastexpat]

SREF ensemble plumes showing that temperatures have stayed warmer than forecast this morning at SEA.

Looking toward the weekend, plumes are showing trace-2.5 inches of snow for SEA. Notable that no members have zero, so everyone should see some snow. Although these plumes default to a 10:1 ratio which is unlikely given temperatures will be around the freezing mark, so may need to shave off about 25% of these amounts.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

WOW

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Over near ocean shores?

Close to Ilwaco.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

WOW

Hood Canal special!  

FWIW... the ECMWF has been showing that relative donut hole around SW King County and NE Pierce County as well.

[westcoastexpat]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Hood Canal special!  

FWIW... the ECMWF has been showing that relative donut hole around SW King County and NE Pierce County as well.

SREF ensemble plumes agree too. Three different physics cores all with similar solutions is tough to ignore.

[Gummy]

4km version.

[markjb]

1 hour ago, Fircrest said:

Yeah, it seems like we don't do as well as other areas quite often.  I live one block east of the UP/Fircrest border just south of the golf course.

Yea, we are close to each other, im right down by Fred Meyer... 67th & Bridgeport. You are at least a 100 ft in elevation over me so you do better in sticking snow than I do.

[Mid Valley Duck]

The NWS in Portland is a joke. Plenty of us saw this coming well before they did and they went out with a WWA that expired at noon yesterday. I know its a hard job but come on? There was plenty of model data and real time analysis/observations that said the PDX metro was likely to experience a significant event. Funniest part is this guy was promoted to lead forecaster a month ago and starts his tenure with an epic bust.
 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

WOW

Haha lol. Couldn’t get worse for a Tacoma

[Prairiedog]

Well, worst fears realized.  I did learn a few things, though. 

We ended up with about 1/2".  Rain till about 6pm when temp started to drop from 37f to 32f about 7pm.  Wifey and I jumped in the truck because i wanted to see what was happening above us.  We're in a small valley along Clear Creek that runs into the Clackamas River, 6 miles away in Carver.  We're in a triangle between  Redland, Carver and Estacada.  Carver is about 5 miles from Sunnyside.  Big increase in snow amounts as you head west and NW.  Much more east wind. 

We climbed up the hill to Springwater Rd to 450' elevation.  At that point the east wind was starting to ramp up but was relatively quiet at our place only a mile away.  We headed east towards McIver Park which is at 850' and there was just a dusting and little wind.  We turned around and headed back west.  At 200' at Carver there was several inches and strong east wind.  Mother in law 5 miles further west had 9". 

Same thing happened in '17.  The geography of my specific area doesn't initially get the early big push of colder east wind air.  Everyone west of me does.  They got snow.  Until the colder air mixes in in my spot I get rain.  The other thing was precip rates.  I got .21'of rain yesterday but it was never heavy.  When the rates picked up9about 6pm) , that also helped drop the temps.  Between that and cold air mixing in, then I got snow. 

It was another disappointing day but even with a small amount of snow on the creek it's gorgeous out.  Truly happy for everyone that scored.  It's a celebration.  It's just where I live.  It's a microclimate that sucks in these kinds of events.  I learned some things and that's always a good thing. 

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The NWS in Portland is a joke. Plenty of us saw this coming well before they did and they went out with a WWA that expired at noon yesterday. I know its a hard job but come on? There was plenty of model data and real time analysis/observations that said the PDX metro was likely to experience a significant event. Funniest part is this guy was promoted to lead forecaster a month ago and starts his tenure with an epic bust.
 

 

Lol, I don’t understand. Do they only look at their one model? People were posting multiple different models in the 48 hour lead up that showed this as a possibility.