PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Still alive.  I popped some tyenol and  got moving on with the day. Too busy of a day to lauly around all day. Got a  nice bump on the head so today will a hat day Fosho I had 3 concussions before this growing up playing sports so it isn’t my first rodeo. Maybe I should start wearing a hard hat around,

Anyways, the 12z GEFS Is looking to be great! Colder runs ahead?

Have to watch that... repeated concussions can lead to some bad stuff later in life.   See NFL for examples.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

If it comes…This winter will turn into a A- for me. Right now I am at B- status. 

Yeah to this point we are probably at a B- if I’m being objective. 
 

Novemver A

December: C+
January: C -

[TacomaWx]

November B+
December A-

January D+
Winter so far-B+

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t think either myself or my wife would survive another round of sleepless nights and diapers lol! Our second was born when I was 42 (my wife is a year older than me) and that was pushing it lol! 

Wow. I always assumed your wife was younger, just because I knew you were a little older when the kids were born. Well good for you guys. That’s not easy! Having my son at 37 was kind of shocking, just in how big the difference was between him and my other kids. Boys are also a completely different animal. He’s 11 months now and he’s getting into EVERYTHING! 
 

He’s my little buddy though. We re attached at the hip, 

Edited February 5, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SouthHillFrosty]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't @SouthHillFrosty just have a baby?  

Nope 1.5 months left! This  was for a bachelor party for one of my friends last night. 

[Skagit Weather]

That GFS run was truly a work of art. Now to make it verify...

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. I always assumed your wife was younger, just because I knew you were a little older when the kids were born. Well good for you guys. That’s not easy! Having my son at 37 was kind of shocking, just in how big the difference was between him and my other kids. Boys are also a completely different animal. He’s 11 months now and he’s getting into EVERYTHING! 
 

He’s my little buddy though. We re attached at the hip, 

Yep... boys are much more challenging before age 10 because they are so active!    But its awesome that you have a son now.  

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t think either myself or my wife would survive another round of sleepless nights and diapers lol! Our second was born when I was 42 (my wife is a year older than me) and that was pushing it lol! 

We had our newest nephew for a weekend back in November. He’s a 2021 model, but holy pancakes… I don’t how we/I did it. I kept sending my brother links to stories about kids being sold on the internets for top dollar. He’s 42 so he’s into for the long haul and there’s just no f’ing way. Poor shlep had a vasectomy scheduled when the fertilizer was spread and he blames Pink Whitney.

[RentonHill]

Best GEFS run by far

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

We had our newest nephew for a weekend back in November. He’s a 2021 model, but holy pancakes… I don’t how we/I did it. I kept sending my brother links to stories about kids being sold on the internets for top dollar. He’s 42 so he’s into for the long haul and there’s just no f’ing way. Poor shlep had a vasectomy scheduled when the fertilizer was spread and he blames Pink Whitney.

The biggest part of it is thinking about how he won’t graduate from HS until I’m 55!!!

[snow_wizard]

Good model trends continue.  The cold shot around the 10th and 11th just came out of nowhere.  Barely even showed up on the 0z GFS.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The biggest part of it is thinking about how he won’t graduate from HS until I’m 55!!!

Someone I know just had a kid at 50.  Pure insanity!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good model trends continue.  The cold shot around the 10th and 11th just came out of nowhere.  Barely even showed up on the 0z GFS.

12Z ECMWF not showing that cold shot in 5 days... 

[SouthHillFrosty]

WOW

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The biggest part of it is thinking about how he won’t graduate from HS until I’m 55!!!

He’ll keep you young!

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. I always assumed your wife was younger, just because I knew you were a little older when the kids were born. Well good for you guys. That’s not easy! Having my son at 37 was kind of shocking, just in how big the difference was between him and my other kids. Boys are also a completely different animal. He’s 11 months now and he’s getting into EVERYTHING! 
 

He’s my little buddy though. We re attached at the hip, 

Yeah I keep thinking it would have been fun to have had a son…But then our friends come over with their 3yr old son and WOW! I am completely exhausted after that kid has been in my house for a few hours…I don’t know how they do it lol! Think I will take the major mood swings from my daughters over that extreme busyness/getting into everything and never content boy haha! 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

WOW

We in the endgame now

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I keep thinking it would have been fun to have had a son…But then our friends come over with their 3yr old son and WOW! I am completely exhausted after that kid has been in my house for a few hours…I don’t know how they do it lol! Think I will take the major mood swings from my daughters over that extreme busyness/getting into everything and never content boy haha! 

We had two of those 3-year old boys in our house... that was probably the craziest year.    They became a little more reasonable after that and started getting into legos which is a more focused activity.  

[umadbro]

November D-

December C-

January F

February so far F

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

November D-

December C-

January F

February so far F

November A-

December B-

January D-

February B- so far

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We had two of those 3-year old boys in our house... that was probably the craziest year.    They became a little more reasonable after that and started getting into legos which is a more focused activity.  

3 is the toughest age imo. Though I may change that opinion once I have teens. 
 

The good thing is he will have a lot of room to roam out here, though I imagine he ll get into trouble with that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, umadbro said:

November D-

December C-

January F

February so far F

Idk how you can give November a D-. You need to objectively compare it to the average November. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

Sort of a glancing blow on the 12Z ECMWF as the coldest air moves south offshore and towards CA.    There is some lowland snow but too much onshore flow in general for anything significant.

[TT-SEA]

9 a.m. and the ECMWF is all done and the day is just starting.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

9 a.m. and the ECMWF is all done and the day is just starting.   

True paradise. 

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of a glancing blow on the 12Z ECMWF as the coldest moves south offshore and towards CA.    There is some lowland snow but too much onshore flow in general for anything significant.

A little snow up here. Score. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of a glancing blow on the 12Z ECMWF as the coldest air moves south offshore and towards CA.    There is some lowland snow but too much onshore flow in general for anything significant.

Much more likely to verify than those pepto-crazy Goofus maps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Much more likely to verify than those pepto-crazy Goofus maps.

Well this is also a day 10 map… the period of biggest potential comes a little later. 

[umadbro]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Idk how you can give November a D-. You need to objectively compare it to the average November. 

I do things differently. I don’t care what happened before. I care about right now. I’ve seen far better Novembers than what we just had. 

[RentonHill]

EPS maybe a bit slower or just wide spread by day 14 compared to GEFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

I do things differently. I don’t care what happened before. I care about right now. I’ve seen far better Novembers than what we just had. 

1985

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS maybe a bit slower or just wide spread by day 14 compared to GEFS

GFS once again leading the way.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS maybe a bit slower or just wide spread by day 14 compared to GEFS

12Z EPS is less than inspiring.    Good for mountain snow though!

[RentonHill]

Still ends going in the right direction at least 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is not slower... its actually much more progressive which is the problem.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is not slower... its actually much more progressive which is the problem.

Maybe yours is off due to the time change?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Maybe yours is off due to the time change?

Could be.   

[rsktkr]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The biggest part of it is thinking about how he won’t graduate from HS until I’m 55!!!

My oldest son graduated last year when I was 55. My youngest son will graduate when I am 60.

Back when they were born I thought that would be strange but now that it's happening it feels like no big deal at all.