PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[RentonHill]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice improvement on the 850 spaghetti for mid month.  Things are starting to get interesting!

Mean and OP are in lockstep until day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

We may get a decent event later this month…but even if we do the late December cold looks like it’ll definitely end up the top event this winter. Despite lacking snow south of Everett…it was a pretty bigtime blast. Wouldn’t be surprised if we had to wait several years to see something like that again. To manage back to back years with cold waves producing highs in the mid 20s is impressive. 

As I mentioned a few days ago 2021-22 and 2022-23 as a pair checked a lot of boxes.  Very impressive to have 7 freezing max temps for a pair of winters.  I still think we could get another very solid event before we are done this winter.  Probably won't beat December for cold though.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Next euro run will determine if the the GFS is full of sh*t again.

There has been a lot of hinting the models would get good again for several days now.  Big MJO waves make things happen.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Four years ago today the fun was just getting started.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

As I mentioned a few days ago 2021-22 and 2022-23 as a pair checked a lot of boxes.  Very impressive to have 7 freezing max temps for a pair of winters.  I still think we could get another very solid event before we are done this winter.  Probably won't beat December for cold though.

Yeah we will see…feels like we’ve just been chasing a carrot on a stick for awhile now. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[snow_wizard]

BC is a lot colder on this GEFS run after day 10 vs 12z and 18z.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah we will see…feels like we’ve just been chasing a carrot on a stick for awhile now. 

LRC alone favors one last shot.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Four years ago today the fun was just getting started.

That was a very enjoyable run of winter.  Three totally separate snow events and very decent cold.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

LRC alone favors one last shot.

Best start locking in on the models within the next week or two…because we’re running out of time with these Tim friendly sun angles

[MossMan]

Jim and Tim in about 30yrs! Poor Jim is just trying to look at the old snow pics from 2/20/23! 

 

[Skagit Weather]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We may get a decent event later this month…but even if we do the late December cold looks like it’ll definitely end up the top event this winter. Despite lacking snow south of Everett…it was a pretty bigtime blast. Wouldn’t be surprised if we had to wait several years to see something like that again. To manage back to back years with cold waves producing highs in the mid 20s is impressive. 

Yeah, there have only been 7 days at OLM, 6 days at SEA, and 3 days at PDX with subfreezing highs after mid February (2/15 or later). There have been 25 days at BLI, but the proximity to the Fraser River and northern latitude makes all the difference (and most of those days have highs of 31 or 32). So pretty safe to say we've seen the coldest temps of the winter (although I guess some places could still seen teens for lows).

[Gummy]

This winter needs a finale badly. A 2-3" inch snow event followed by a few days with highs around 35 will suffice.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, there have only been 7 days at OLM, 6 days at SEA, and 3 days at PDX with subfreezing highs after mid February (2/15 or later). There have been 25 days at BLI, but the proximity to the Fraser River and northern latitude makes all the difference (and most of those days have highs of 31 or 32. So pretty safe to say we've seen the coldest temps of the winter (although I guess some places could still seen teens for lows).

Even SEA has had teens into March before.  11 in March 1955 for instance.

[snow_wizard]

Very impressive for a mean that far out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Even SEA has had teens into March before.  11 in March 1955 for instance.

March 1960 was very impressive too, 5-12" of snow from Eugene to Seattle with a subfreezing high of 29 degrees at PDX.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Oh, here we go!

[snow_wizard]

This is getting very interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

It would be pretty mind blowing for Feb to deliver yet again, but it certainly looks possible.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Substantial improvement!

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the Euro. Day 10

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Back to the Euro. Day 10

Noice!  That looks cold enough for snow at first glance.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SouthHillFrosty]

Yo!!!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Cannon Beach back in the game!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ensembles look better. I also got a concussion drinking with the bois. Don’t drink ppl 

[snow_wizard]

Good model runs tonight.  Let's keep it going!

[Gradient Keeper]

C'mon EPS! I think we're going to see a significant late Winter blast... February does it again!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 15 minutes

[WeatherGeek2022]

31 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yo!!!

bring that pepto from the mountains down to the lowlands and we're in for a treat.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

44F and cloudy. Been a pretty decent stretch.

[RentonHill]

4 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ensembles look better. I also got a concussion drinking with the bois. Don’t drink ppl 

Another one? Didn’t you also fall and crack your hip on the ice? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not an awful 06z run. 

[AlTahoe]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This is why I'm more interested in a climate that is big on cold, but has just moderate snowfall.

Bozeman Mt would be the place!

[MossMan]

This morning currently reminds me of January…

Vert light dribbles and 40 degrees. 
.01” so far on the day, .28” for the month, 5.04” for 2023. 

And it’s coming.