PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Deweydog]

Thunder pattern!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

I did see some hopeful signs tonight, but then other stuff made me nauseous. Then I saw the 00z runs....

 Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Did J0sh pass out? No more jokes? I like jokes. We all need jokes.... Dang it.

6z NAM in 21 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

[snow_wizard]

I'm beginning to think WA might finally have a dry year.  We are beyond due.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think this weekend is when the models are going to really catch onto something good.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm beginning to think WA might finally have a dry year.  We are beyond due.

Slightly drier than average? Moderately drier? Much drier? As long as it doesn't come with stifling heat.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think this weekend is when the models are going to really catch onto something good.

I agree, Jim.

[Cold Snap]

I’m going on a trip on the 19th so it’s definitely coming then! I’ll be the sacrifice for a late February cold snap!

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm beginning to think WA might finally have a dry year.  We are beyond due.

Did you hit your head or something?

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’m approaching Pepto territory! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z CMCE

something spicy brewing maybe at the very tip end

[Gradient Keeper]

-47.1 temp now. Wind chill still hasn't dropped lower than -108.4 twice now. I think it's going to soon.

[Gradient Keeper]

There it is! -109 wind chill. Winds ramping up again.

[TT-SEA]

Much easier drive to the airport this morning compared to 4 years ago!  Intermittent wiper situation with good visibility and a temp between 44 and 45 the entire way.  Looks like we won't have to dig out to get into the driveway when we get back either... like we did after our December 2021 trip to Hawaii. 

Always interesting driving to the airport at 4 a.m. when there are barely any cars on the road and it feels like the whole world is asleep and then you get to the airport and you are immediately in a long security line with people everywhere.   

 

[Gradient Keeper]

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Much easier drive to the airport this morning compared to 4 years ago!  Intermittent wiper situation with good visibility and a temp between 44 and 45 the entire way.  Looks like we won't have to dig out to get into the driveway when we get back either... like we did after our December 2021 trip to Hawaii. 

Always interesting driving to the airport at 4 a.m. when there are barely any cars on the road and it feels like the whole world is asleep and then you get to the airport and you are immediately in a long security line with people everywhere.   

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah! More rain spreading inland into western Oregon.

[TacomaWx]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm beginning to think WA might finally have a dry year.  We are beyond due.

2019 was exceptionally dry and also not that long ago. You really seem to want western WA to have the climo of the Waterville plateau

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

2019 was exceptionally dry and also not that long ago. You really seem to want western WA to have the climo of the Waterville plateau

Jim would prefer that for sure... but if you look at rainfall stats over the last 10-15 years we are definitely due for some dry years in the Puget Sound area. Unfortunately our wet years have also come during a period when summers have been getting warmer/drier.   So it seems counter-intuitive to think we are due for some dry years but that is what climo says.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Jim would prefer that for sure... but if you looking at rainfall stats over the last 10-15 years we are definitely due for some dry years in the Puget Sound area. Unfortunately our wet years have also come during a period when summers have been getting warmer/drier.   So it seems counter-intuitive to think we are due for some dry years but that is what climo says.    

Climate zones shifting north. You are now having Oregon summers and we are having California summers. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Climate zones shifting north. You are now having Oregon summers and we are having California summers. 

Seems like it.

[Skagit Weather]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm beginning to think WA might finally have a dry year.  We are beyond due.

I mean I guess technically WA was above average in 2022, but only on the smallest margin. Most of the state was drier than normal, but some of the precipitation in Eastern WA must have been just enough to bump us up to 65th driest in the period of record (64th out of 128 years would be perfectly average).

In the last 10 years WA has had 3 below average years (2013, 2018, 2019) and 7 above average years. If you take the mean of the last 10 years, WA has been slightly wetter than average during that time frame, with a mean of about 6 years above the "most average year." So the 10 year average precipitation is about as close to normal as you could expect. On the other hand we're below average for the mean of the last 5 years. So I'm not sure by any metric you could say Washington as a whole is due for a below average year.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I mean I guess technically WA was above average in 2022, but only on the smallest margin. Most of the state was drier than normal, but some of the precipitation in Eastern WA must have been just enough to bump us up to 65th driest in the period of record (64th out of 128 years would be perfectly average).

In the last 10 years WA has had 3 below average years (2013, 2018, 2019) and 7 above average years. If you take the mean of the last 10 years, WA has been slightly wetter than average during that time frame, with a mean of about 6 years above the "most average year." So the 10 year average precipitation is about as close to normal as you could expect. On the other hand we're below average for the mean of the last 5 years. So I'm not sure by any metric you could say Washington as a whole is due for a below average year.

 

I appreciate this post. 

[RentonHill]

GEM is the new Picasso 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I mean I guess technically WA was above average in 2022, but only on the smallest margin. Most of the state was drier than normal, but some of the precipitation in Eastern WA must have been just enough to bump us up to 65th driest in the period of record (64th out of 128 years would be perfectly average).

In the last 10 years WA has had 3 below average years (2013, 2018, 2019) and 7 above average years. If you take the mean of the last 10 years, WA has been slightly wetter than average during that time frame, with a mean of about 6 years above the "most average year." So the 10 year average precipitation is about as close to normal as you could expect. On the other hand we're below average for the mean of the last 5 years. So I'm not sure by any metric you could say Washington as a whole is due for a below average year.

 

Always great stats... thanks. 

And definitely not WA overall but more for the Puget Sound area specifically. 

[MossMan]

Exciting weather we are having! So thrilling! 

Cloudy and 46. 

[MossMan]

[Snownerd3000]

 

 

[LowerGarfield]

Light clouds...about 44F here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Light rain this morning and 43 after a low of 41.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

I mean I guess technically WA was above average in 2022, but only on the smallest margin. Most of the state was drier than normal, but some of the precipitation in Eastern WA must have been just enough to bump us up to 65th driest in the period of record (64th out of 128 years would be perfectly average).

In the last 10 years WA has had 3 below average years (2013, 2018, 2019) and 7 above average years. If you take the mean of the last 10 years, WA has been slightly wetter than average during that time frame, with a mean of about 6 years above the "most average year." So the 10 year average precipitation is about as close to normal as you could expect. On the other hand we're below average for the mean of the last 5 years. So I'm not sure by any metric you could say Washington as a whole is due for a below average year.

 

He’ll never see it, but thanks for putting together this post. Pretty remarkable that California still pulled off their 9th driest year on record in 2022. I guess the storm train waited until early January to really get going down there though.

[Phil]

8 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

-47.1 temp now. Wind chill still hasn't dropped lower than -108.4 twice now. I think it's going to soon.

Tied the observatory’s record low of -47°F from 1934!

Supposedly a -50°F was recorded in 1885, but that was a different type of thermometer, possibly less precise and sited differently. So it’s not official.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Our record low today is 14F, set in Matt’s profile pic. Only 28 degrees off this morning. Better luck next year guys! 

[Phil]

I don’t see why the PNW couldn’t experience an all-time airmass again, or at least come close. I think it will happen eventually. Many places in the Midwest and NE have broken cold records both at 850mb and the surface just in the last 10 years.

IL set a new state record low in Jan 2019, during one of the coldest air masses to ever strike the Midwest. The air mass last night was also the coldest ever observed for much of northern New England by 850mb/sounding data. The Feb 2015 airmass was the most anomalous ever to strike here, nearly tying the all time 850mb low but occurring in mid-Feb instead of mid-Jan.

Just need the correct blocking configuration to get the TPV fully into SW Canada. Even in Feb 1989 part of it was up in NE Canada. If 1989 had occurred with a downstream block as well as that upstream monster over the GOA/AK…  

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Climate zones shifting north. You are now having Oregon summers and we are having California summers. 

During cold times like the LIA, seasonal precipitation was less than today, but summers were much cooler/wetter and winters were colder but drier. The N/S gradient wasn’t as sharp.

In the SW US seasonal precipitation was much higher, though. Much bigger deal down there.

[Deweydog]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Our record low today is 14F, set in Matt’s profile pic. Only 28 degrees off this morning. Better luck next year guys! 

9 degrees tomorrow with a 30 degree diurnal spread, Jess!