PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure that one frame is indicative of something different... that is just part of a ULL cutting off over the SW on the 12Z EPS.   A couple days later it looks like this:

 

One frame with significantly deeper troughing than a previous run matters... It never gets that deep in the last run.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Here is the actual period with the trough over the southwest, it's more of a mountain snow maker than wet setup.

Agreed... looks very different than the long range EPS leading up to the storminess in CA which was driven by a jet extension.    It was showing much wetter than normal in CA back then.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

One frame with significantly deeper troughing than a previous run matters...

The pattern just doesn't feel right in terms of leading to something major for us in terms of cold/snow.    The best events show the coldest air over BC during the lead up.   But I could be wrong... its happens more often than not.

[Slushy Inch]

North flow and chilly anomalies in the long range isn't too bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Who’s that. Yeah like I said it would reduce the odds at best. The odds for a scorching summer are always high. A wet spring would be lovely. I’m always a fan of springs that start out relatively dry in early March (score some more freezes) and become gradually wetter April-June.

LOL

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The pattern just doesn't feel right in terms of leading to something major for us in terms of cold/snow.    The best events show the coldest air over BC during the lead up.   But I could be wrong... its happens more often than not.

I know, the decrease in 850s and 2m temps run-to-run was like 1 degree.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's possible. Though Tim will remind us that 2016-17 was very wet for California and that summer torched ridiculously. 

Part of me wonders if at some point the focus of this moves north and we end up having another very wet spring. 

Dry January is in the books and February is not exactly off to a banging start. Will have to start knifing though those deficits at some point as the year continues. Makes sense it will probably be in the spring.

After our string of crazy wet Marchs from 2011-2017 we're actually working on being quite DUE for another wet one. Five drys in a row now.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS 15-day precip anomalies... the wettest spot relative to normal is actually to the north in SW BC.   CA is shown to be drier than normal over the next 2 weeks despite deep troughing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Dry January is in the books and February is not exactly off to a banging start. Will have to start knifing though those deficits at some point as the year continues. Makes sense it will probably be in the spring.

After our string of crazy wet Marchs from 2011-2017 we're actually working on being quite DUE for another wet one. Five drys in a row now.

I agree. I don't know what the big signal is Tim sees for a dry spring. It makes a LOT of sense that it would be a wet spring. Not necessarily, but if we don't we will be working on a very dry year like 2013 or 2018. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Dry January is in the books and February is not exactly off to a banging start. Will have to start knifing though those deficits at some point as the year continues. Makes sense it will probably be in the spring.

After our string of crazy wet Marchs from 2011-2017 we're actually working on being quite DUE for another wet one. Five drys in a row now.

Yeah... personally I would love to see a ridiculously wet March and first half of April.    We have to pay the debt at some point so lets do it now.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. I don't know what the big signal is Tim sees for a dry spring. It makes a LOT of sense that it would be a wet spring. Not necessarily, but if we don't we will be working on a very dry year like 2013 or 2018. 

I did not say dry spring.   I said I don't see a really wet spring.   It feels like a fairly normal spring incoming to me.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. I don't know what the big signal is Tim sees for a dry spring. It makes a LOT of sense that it would be a wet spring. Not necessarily, but if we don't we will be working on a very dry year like 2013 or 2018. 

Seems like the jet has been either disorganized, splitty or blocky the majority of the cold season so far. Makes sense that would come home too roost at some point. 

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The pattern just doesn't feel right in terms of leading to something major for us in terms of cold/snow.    The best events show the coldest air over BC during the lead up.   But I could be wrong... its happens more often than not.

almost no decently cold <10 850 ensemble members on any of the recent runs. Last nights EPS had a very tight cluster between -4 and -8. Not even warm outliers either! Seems like this milquetoast pattern is a lock and EPS maps for days 10-15 are probably just showing timing differences rather than different patterns. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, RentonHill said:

almost no decently cold <10 850 ensemble members on any of the recent runs. Last nights EPS had a very tight cluster between -4 and -8. Not even warm outliers either! Seems like this milquetoast pattern is a lock and EPS maps for days 10-15 are probably just showing timing differences rather than different patterns. 

Still got that hot dog in it

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMCE

[ShawniganLake]

Chilly spring with near to slightly below average precip, is my feeling.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

almost no decently cold <10 850 ensemble members on any of the recent runs. Last nights EPS had a very tight cluster between -4 and -8. Not even warm outliers either! Seems like this milquetoast pattern is a lock and EPS maps for days 10-15 are probably just showing timing differences rather than different patterns. 

It's the kind of pattern that could be good in the foothills if we get consolidated systems. That's what I've been waiting for all winter. Some sloppy seconds and -5C 850mb temps isn't going to get it done. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Still got that hot dog in it

Drawing looked like a hot dog to me 

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

12

Solid Aleutian ridge without a vortex in NE-Canada. Has more potential than the current pattern, at least.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Chilly spring with near to slightly below average precip, is my feeling.  

I’m all up in 2006 at this point, at least intra-seasonally.  I’d expect some kind of pattern of favorability toward the end of the month. Warmish spring but nothing to write home about. 

[Phil]

And there’s at least some MJO component so the nature of tropical forcing will be changing to some extent.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Drawing looked like a hot dog to me 

 

[mtep]

Getting very gusty in Bham. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

 

[MossMan]

It’s funny…I felt like last weeks “event” was going to be a dud, even in the early stages weeks ago. My gut is telling me this next possible event will be much better! Probably because it’s February and not January. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought the CFS was OK. 

[MossMan]

40 minutes ago, mtep said:

Getting very gusty in Bham. 

Yeah I noticed that when I was there an hour ago, the work van was getting buffeted all about. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

 

Dammit! They put helium in the balloon with all that cocaine?

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Dammit! They put helium in the balloon with all that cocaine?

That would be a different type of snowfall if the government shoots it down! 

Edited February 3, 2023 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53 and sunny in Polk county. 

[MossMan]

My prediction for spring…I will be jetsking by late April. Last year I didn’t have the water toys at the lake until right before the 4th of July. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My prediction for spring…I will be jetsking by late April. Last year I didn’t have the water toys at the lake until right before the 4th of July. 

If we could just get our usual 3-5 day warm, sunny spell in April and again in May then spring is so much more enjoyable.   We had basically nothing in our area until the middle of June last year which was extremely unusual.   Those breaks make all the difference and they usually happen even in cold/wet springs.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 49.1 with some pretty gusty winds.

[MossMan]

Power flickered at work a few minutes ago, looks like just to our west was more than a flicker. 

[RentonHill]

The setup is super funky but somehow the GFS manages to get some cold air loaded into BC. 12z had it too but not as good. 

[Phishy Wx]

HRRR trash

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

HRRR trash

 

 

It really is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last year I learned once and for all that winter cancels in early February are a bad idea. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

It really is.

It's only a good model when it shows 18-24" of snow in my backyard, then I know we might get a few inches.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last year I learned once and for all that winter cancels in early February are a bad idea. 

except if it's for the PNW, right?