Deweydog Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 With offshore flow it still takes 850mb temps of at least 22c or so to get to a hundy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 With offshore flow it still takes 850mb temps of at least 22c or so to get to a hundy. Good thing it shows 23c then! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 I'm sure it's possible. But I'm still skeptical with this pattern, especially how it's been trending since yesterday. If it were one week later in August, I'd say there's no way that produces triple digits at PDX, but we're still in the dog days until about the 20th or so. Models are obviously not locked in on any solution so who knows if they actually hit 100, though things are almost certainly going to stay fairly hot for a while going forward. The smoke is another factor that could hold things down a bit. The overall point though is that it 100 isn't some monumental achievement at PDX, it doesn't take a massive 594 dm ridge with the axis right over us to do it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Good thing it shows 23c then! That'd do it. Luckily the Euro has a bit of a warm bias in the mid range lately. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Smokey enough today that PDX is reporting overcast conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Models are obviously not locked in on any solution so who knows if they actually hit 100, though things are almost certainly going to stay fairly hot for a while going forward. The smoke is another factor that could hold things down a bit. The overall point though is that it 100 isn't some monumental achievement at PDX, it doesn't take a massive 594 dm ridge with the axis right over us to do it. Obviously. This modeled ridge isn't remotely close to that. Normally it takes 588+, though, unless you get a perfectly timed thermal trough. Just from observing patterns over the years, I think PDX would have to thread the needle to get to 100...but I'm sure they could do it! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Smokey enough today that PDX is reporting overcast conditions. Outside shot SEA actually ends up warmer today. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Obviously. This modeled ridge isn't remotely close to that. Normally it takes 588+, though, unless you get a perfectly timed thermal trough. Just from observing patterns over the years, I think PDX would have to thread the needle to get to 100...but I'm sure they could do it! I think the SMI is playing a much bigger roll this summer than people want to believe. It real dry out there. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 I think the SMI is playing a much bigger roll this summer than people want to believe. It real dry out there. Could be. I don't think the Euro takes that into account, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Could be. I don't think the Euro takes that into account, though. Actually it does! Pretty critical part of the algorithm in fact. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7670-soil-moisture-analyses-ecmwf-evaluation-using-global-ground-based-situ-observations 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Actually it does! Pretty critical part of the algorithm in fact. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7670-soil-moisture-analyses-ecmwf-evaluation-using-global-ground-based-situ-observations King ECMWF! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Actually it does! Pretty critical part of the algorithm in fact. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7670-soil-moisture-analyses-ecmwf-evaluation-using-global-ground-based-situ-observationsdoes it include smoke or haze? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Actually it does! Pretty critical part of the algorithm in fact. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7670-soil-moisture-analyses-ecmwf-evaluation-using-global-ground-based-situ-observations Fascinating. Now it seems like this has been mentioned before, I just forgot. Dewey seemed to think Euro has been over-estimating temps recently, though...hard to say with smoke factor, I guess. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Models continue to slow down the ULL. 18z gives Portland area a nice soaking Saturday. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 does it include smoke or haze? Not yet. With the latest advancement in smoke modeling I assume it's something they're working on though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Models continue to slow down the ULL. 18z gives Portland area a nice soaking Saturday.trend continues of not being such a blast furnace next week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 94ish degrees with heavy smoke and falling ash here in North Cowichan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Smoke is keeping things a bit cooler than expected. Thank you nature! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 We have hit 90F in Springfield again. Headed up to Monmouth so I will report on the smoke difference. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Purty sure we would hit 108 today without the smoke. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 Yum 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 YumMotherfu****. Totally dry here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 8, 2018 Report Share Posted August 8, 2018 YumThis can't come any sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Nice day! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Nice day!F*ck off. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Nice day!You're enjoying this while you can huh? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Purty sure we would hit 108 today without the smoke. Two Augusts in a row...what are the odds. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 90* back home and just Yuk out here in Portland. Hate this smoky overcast !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 You're enjoying this while you can huh?I am! Soon enough it will be 41 and heavy drizzle! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 I am! Soon enough it will be 41 and heavy drizzle!But you're way more liable to have the goodies in the winter as opposed to the south valley, so there's that. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Pretty smunset. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 94ish degrees with heavy smoke and falling ash here in North CowichanEnded up with 94 for a high IMBY. Hottest day of the year so far. I thought the smoke and ash was coming from the Nanaimo fire but turns out it was from another fire that started this afternoon in a popular hiking area called Maple mountain. Some residents of north Cowichan are on evacuation alert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Still 75 lovely degrees currently at 9:30pm! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Here comes the smoke! That will drop temps by several degrees from today’s highs up here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Ended up with 94 for a high IMBY. Hottest day of the year so far. I thought the smoke and ash was coming from the Nanaimo fire but turns out it was from another fire that started this afternoon in a popular hiking area called Maple mountain. Some residents of north Cowichan are on evacuation alert. Only got up to 87F here, but it still edged in for the warmest day so far this year and it's taking its sweet time to cool off; the high for the day came in around 6:30pm. The Nanaimo fire seemed to have calmed down a bit but the interior is exploding. The air in Alberta looks awful and that line of smoke stretches right into Ontario. There's smoke to our north, east, and south but the island has largely been spared outside of local fires: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Only got up to 87F here, but it still edged in for the warmest day so far this year and it's taking its sweet time to cool off; the high for the day came in around 6:30pm. The Nanaimo fire seemed to have calmed down a bit but the interior is exploding. The air in Alberta looks awful and that line of smoke stretches right into Ontario. There's smoke to our north, east, and south but the island has largely been spared outside of local fires: Yea. The fires are widespread in the interior right now. The NW of the province is in pretty bad shape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Total precip per the 00Z ECMWF... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Euro looks real close to 90 on Friday in Portland. And shows it above 90 on Friday up here. Rainfall update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Euro looks real close to 90 on Friday in Portland. And shows it above 90 on Friday up here. Rainfall update 041192E7-C71A-4132-9B2B-4B5A188FCFED.pngLooks like much less precip for me now. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted August 9, 2018 Report Share Posted August 9, 2018 Looks like much less precip for me now.Euro has moved to the coolest model next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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