August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Looking at QBO alone, you can see some good matches include 2012/13, 2003/04, 1996/97, 1994/95, etc. There is obviously more to it then that, but it’s important to get the cycle-stage of the QBO correct..not just the sign.

 

The best winters in the PNW tend to have westerlies downwelling to 50mb by midsummer. In +ENSO, however, it’s often a different story. More randomness.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks more like early fall to me. 

 

 

It will be in 4 days!

 

And unlike Silver Falls... we frequently have some clouds in the summer as well.   So that sky looks like summer to me.  

[Phil]

Long range showing hints of a warm up after some cool downs.

 

#haha

 

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I think the warm-up is real, unfortunately. The NPAC wavetrain looks to retrograde during the second half of September.

 

In the meantime, though, you guys get to enjoy late summer perfection for at least another 10 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It will be in 4 days!

 

And unlike Silver Falls... we frequently have some clouds in the summer as well.   So that sky looks like summer to me.  

 

We infrequently have clouds in summer. 

[TT-SEA]

Weak ridging signal on the 12Z EPS from about day 6 through the end of the run.

[ShawniganLake]

Feels warm out there today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weak ridging signal on the 12Z EPS from about day 6 through the end of the run.

 

Sounds peachy!

[Jesse]

I will say at least the PM well dried up. That was as refreshing as yesterday's refreshments! The constant straw mania thing is kinda new too. Kind of smells like the ice burn spring of 201?.

Acting like the straw man thing only goes in one direction is a straw man in and of itself.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds peachy!

Weak ridging is downright lovely.

[MossMan]

I definitely agree that 1996/97 is one of the better raw QBO/solar analogs, but it might be a risky tropical forcing analog given the enormous fall/early-winter MJO/RW activity that triggered the move into the super niño starting in December 1996, while bombarding the polar stratosphere during the developmental stages of the PV.

 

Very unique progression of events that year.

96-97 was quite the eventful winter...pre Thanksgiving big snow and post Christmas big time snow, also a respectable snow in March...with wind and flooding mixed in. I will take either a 96-97 or a 06-07 to go please...and thank you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

96-97 was quite the eventful winter...pre Thanksgiving big snow and post Christmas big time snow, also a respectable snow in March...with wind and flooding mixed in. I will take either a 96-97 or a 06-07 to go please...and thank you.

 

96-97 was pretty lame down here. 06-07 much better...

[El_Nina]

I know Redwoods can absorb water from fog and mist, but does anyone know if Douglas Firs do the same?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know Redwoods can absorb water from fog and mist, but does anyone know if Douglas Firs do the same?

 

I believe they can. Also fog and mist condenses on their needles and drips to the forest floor and then can be absorbed through the roots. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

96-97 was pretty lame down here. 06-07 much better...

 

Yeah I was gonna say, the central and south valley had basically nothing in 96-97, KSLE only had a handful of days that had below freezing temps and zero sub freezing highs with no accumulated snowfall, so I hope that's not an analog.

[El_Nina]

I believe they can. Also fog and mist condenses on their needles and drips to the forest floor and then can be absorbed through the roots.

 

Their needles must absorb some, it remained bone dry under our firs after the rain.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah I was gonna say, the central and south valley had basically nothing in 96-97, KSLE only had a handful of days that had below freezing temps and zero sub freezing highs with no accumulated snowfall, so I hope that's not an analog.

Victoria BC in December 1996. Snow drifts up the eaves on some houses.

 

[Front Ranger]

Can everyone please try to pick on Tim as much as Jesse, and vice versa? In fact, if you poke fun at one person on here, please try to poke at every other member the exact same amount.

 

Let's keep things fair, guys.

[Jesse]

I know Redwoods can absorb water from fog and mist, but does anyone know if Douglas Firs do the same?

I was wondering the same thing. I’d imagine so.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Victoria BC in December 1996. Snow drifts up the eaves on some houses.

 

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Fully expect another year like this. Keep the streak going for Corvallis.

[Jesse]

Really nice afternoon with the clean air and puffy clouds. Just wish we had a little more rain on the horizon.

[TT-SEA]

Really nice afternoon with the clean air and puffy clouds. Just wish we had a little more rain on the horizon.

 

 

Beautiful day... looks like the PNW in summer again.  

 

I like that c-zone being shown here for Thursday.    We could get another .50 that day.    Getting half an inch of rain every 3 or 4 days with sunshine in between is just perfect in my opinion.   

[Jesse]

Beautiful day... looks like the PNW in summer again.

 

I like that c-zone being shown here for Thursday. We could get another .50 that day. Getting half an inch of rain every 3 or 4 days with sunshine in between is just perfect in my opinion.

Unfortunately that pattern being achieved for you means most places go rainless.

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately that pattern being achieved for you means most places go rainless.

 

 

I know... I would love to spread the rain around more.    I just can't find a way to control the weather.  

[Jesse]

I know... I would love to spread the rain around more. I just can't find a way to control the weather.

To be expected living in one of the wetter microclimates in the state.

[TT-SEA]

To be expected living in one of the wetter microclimates in the state.

 

Indeed.

[Phil]

I know... I would love to spread the rain around more. I just can't find a way to control the weather.

I bet you’d love some of this right now.

 

[TT-SEA]

Although... to be fair... there is a large area of the state that gets as much or more rainfall than my area.

 

We are located just north of that little thumb of green.    That thumb is Rattlesnake Ridge of course.   The Snoqualmie Valley also shows up clearly in this map.   

 

I marked the map with an arrow representing my area and the Snoqualmie Valley:

 

[TT-SEA]

I bet you’d love some of this right now.

 

 

 

Nope... today is perfect here.  

[Phil]

Why does the transition from winter into summer take something like 4 weeks, while the transition from summer into winter takes 4 months?

 

F**k summer. Worthless season.

[Jesse]

Why does the transition from winter into summer take something like 4 weeks, while the transition from summer into winter takes 4 months?

 

F**k summer. Worthless season.

 

It is reversed out here.

 

And I like summer. Our normal summers are beautiful.

[TT-SEA]

Why does the transition from winter into summer take something like 4 weeks, while the transition from summer into winter takes 4 months?

 

F**k summer. Worthless season.

 

 

Meltdown status?

 

The transition from winter to summer takes about the half the year here!  

[Phil]

It is reversed out here.

Is it actually? I thought summer peaked even later out there, like mid-August to early-September.

[TT-SEA]

Is it actually? I thought summer peaked even later out there.

 

 

You have posted maps showing this very fact and discussed it before.    Spring goes on FOREVER out here... but the transition from summer to winter is much quicker.   

[Jesse]

Is it actually? I thought summer peaked even later out there, like mid-August to early-September.

 

Maybe for coastal areas. Summer generally peaks in late July/early August here.

 

Fall is relatively quick here. We go from our warmest average temps to our coldest in just 4-5 months. This is pretty basic stuff that you should probably know forecasting for us and posting here as much as you do.

[Phil]

You have posted maps showing this very fact and discussed it before. Spring goes on FOREVER out here... but the transition from summer to winter is much quicker.

Well I knew it was *relatively* quicker because of the later summer peak, but I didn’t know the winter transition itself was faster than the summer transition there. Especially after all the tendency for warmth in May in recent years.

[Front Ranger]

Although... to be fair... there is a large area of the state that gets as much or more rainfall than my area.

 

We are located just north of that little thumb of green.    That thumb is Rattlesnake Ridge of course.   The Snoqualmie Valley also shows up clearly in this map.   

 

I marked the map with an arrow representing my area and the Snoqualmie Valley:

 

 

Sure, but probably 99% of the population gets less rainfall than you. 

[James Jones]

Well I knew it was *relatively* quicker because of the later summer peak, but I didn’t know the winter transition itself was faster than the summer transition there.

 

Falls around here are very short and spring is very long. The end of summer (where you can reasonably expect sun and warm temps most days) is sometime around mid September, though the start of winter is a bit murky and depends on how you want to define it. If it's cool temps and rain it's arguably as early as the beginning of November, if it's a reasonable chance of cold and snow then not until late November or early December.

 

Just based on temps most places on the west side don't start seeing temps start to tick down until mid August, then bottom out in in mid to late December before ticking back up at the beginning of January.

 

Spring on the other hand usually lasts at least 4 months and sometimes as long as 6 (2010 I'd argue had spring start in January and last all the way through June).

[Front Ranger]

Meltdown status?

 

The transition from winter to summer takes about the half the year here!  

 

Didn't you get snow in late March/early April, and then have temps in the 60s/70s a few weeks later?

 

I think some years spring does drag on, but quite a bit does change weather-wise from March to May, or April to June, usually.

[Front Ranger]

 

Falls around here are very short and spring is very long. The end of summer (where you can reasonably expect sun and warm temps most days) is sometime around mid September, though the start of winter is a bit murky and depends on how you want to define it. If it's cool temps and rain it's arguably as early as the beginning of November, if it's a reasonable chance of cold and snow then not until late November or early December.

 

Just based on temps most places on the west side don't start seeing temps start to tick down until mid August, then bottom out in in mid to late December before ticking back up at the beginning of January.

 

Spring on the other hand usually lasts at least 4 months and sometimes as long as 6 (2010 I'd argue had spring start in January and last all the way through June).

 

 

This year, on the other hand, winter was still going strong in late February and summer set in for you guys basically in late April. Two months. So there is a fair amount of variance.

[Jesse]

This year, on the other hand, winter was still going strong in late February and summer set in for you guys basically in late April. Two months. So there is a fair amount of variance.

Of course, we are discussing climate norms, which usually involves some degree of generalization.