September 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

We're getting drizzle from Gordon this morning. We haven't had a sunny morning since a week ago today I believe and I'm perfectly fine with that. 64.9*F.

[Tom]

I did. I have never seen the mean & control agree that much. Troughs galore the last week of September & first couple weeks of October. Looks similar to last year. The rest of October looks beautiful as well. Best part is I think September heat waves are off the table. In fact, after we get the Florence ridge out of the way, it's showing a barney rampage @ 850 around the start of Fall. That's bring first frosts and freezes to this region. Last hurrah severe outbreak around here possibly? 2m temps look warm. Of course we need to not get our hopes up on that in case another tropical system comes and ruins that.

Excellent, thanks for the commentary which sorta aligns with the JMA weeklies from yesterday as well.  The troughs late month fit the BSR rule and EAR quite well.  It'll be a nice way to finish off a warm start to this month.  With that being said, I'm going to enjoy the gorgeous 7-10 days of weather around here.  King Salmon season has started off very well along the shores of Lake Michigan and I'm certainly going to try and take off a couple days to catch some Kings!  Stock the fridge, it's going to be a fun Autumn and Winter!

[james1976]

I like what im reading regarding the Euro weeklies and JMA. Thanks for the info guys. But like Niko said....the Atlantic is poppin right now and could definitely change our pattern. Yesterday on TWC they were showing all the systems lined up.

[Tom]

I’m on my phone, but that 12z GFS run looks incredibly close to what the last LRC has on schedule. There should be a tropical system coming out of the GOM around the 22nd and it flashed that this run. Remember the Oct 22nd-25th pattern? This looks eerily similar. Big time troughs post 9/17 are on the table. Lastly, it looked like Florence got picked up by the incoming trough diving out of Canada and phased/buckled. Autumn may be about to snap soon.

[St Paul Storm]

I’m on my phone, but that 12z GFS run looks incredibly close to what the last LRC has on schedule. There should be a tropical system coming out of the GOM around the 22nd and it flashed that this run. Remember the Oct 22nd-25th pattern? This looks eerily similar. Big time troughs post 9/17 are on the table. Lastly, it looked like Florence got picked up by the incoming trough diving out of Canada and phased/buckled. Autumn may be about to snap soon.

This. Good call buddy! Autumn is about to hit hard and winter soon to follow. Good times ahead.

[OKwx2k4]

I did. I have never seen the mean & control agree that much. Troughs galore the last week of September & first couple weeks of October. Looks similar to last year. The rest of October looks beautiful as well. Best part is I think September heat waves are off the table. In fact, after we get the Florence ridge out of the way, it's showing a barney rampage @ 850 around the start of Fall. That's bring first frosts and freezes to this region. Last hurrah severe outbreak around here possibly? 2m temps look warm. Of course we need to not get our hopes up on that in case another tropical system comes and ruins that.

Thank you!

[OKwx2k4]

Troughs galore the last week of September & first couple weeks of October. Looks similar to last year. The rest of October looks beautiful as well. Best part is I think September heat waves are off the table. In fact, after we get the Florence ridge out of the way, it's showing a ~~BARNEY RAMPAGE!!!!~~@ 850 around the start of Fall. That brings first frosts and freezes to this region.

Awesome. My favorite cold weather saying. Funny yet so violent. :lol:

[james1976]

Perfect day over here. Cloudy and breezy and only mid 60s! Coolest day since spring. Fall is comin fast!

[Niko]

Cloudy and coolish all day w temps at 70F all day. Sunday is calling for highs in the upper 50s w rain. Yikes.

[Niko]

Perfect day over here. Cloudy and breezy and only mid 60s! Coolest day since spring. Fall is comin fast!

I think its safe to say that we are done w the 90s, at least for my area. My extended keeps getting cooler and cooler and cooler.

[Minny_Weather]

Couldn't live without a hoodie today. Weather is the same here as it is at James' place. 64.4*F.

[Hawkeye]

The breeze is making it a bit chilly this evening.

[james1976]

Its already down to 58!

[Tom]

Yup, today's weather certainly put me in the Autumnal mood today.  Didn't make it out of the upper 60's with a heavy overcast and stiff breeze out of the NE.

[OKwx2k4]

Tomorrow's forecast high here...72°. Awesome.

[Madtown]

56 here windows open Oktoberfest in hand

[Tom]

The Lake is starting to look more like Autumn...hope to see many of these southern stream systems as we head deeper into Autumn...had the window open all night and the sound of the trees/leaves from the strong winds woke me at times.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

The Lake is starting to look more like Autumn...hope to see many of these southern stream systems as we head deeper into Autumn...had the window open all night and the sound of the trees/leaves from the strong winds woke me at times.

 

 

 

Feels like an autumn day here with exception to the trees being green. Seems like the same weather I had back on July 31st only cooler.

 

I know it sounds crazy but I'd like to experience a true autumn GL storm.

[Tom]

 

Feels like an autumn day here with exception to the trees being green. Seems like the same weather I had back on July 31st only cooler.

 

I know it sounds crazy but I'd like to experience a true autumn GL storm.

Same thing I was thinking yesterday!  Haha, boy, did the 12z GFS snap into Autumn in a hurry.  Crazy run with Florence showing a loop-d-loop scenario off the EC.  I've been looking for the models to phase this storm.  Let's see if this does happen bc a lot is on the table.  I must say, when taking a look at the entire North American pattern, this month is heading towards Winter in a hurry up in Canada.

 

Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow....

 

[OKwx2k4]

Same thing I was thinking yesterday! Haha, boy, did the 12z GFS snap into Autumn in a hurry. Crazy run with Florence showing a loop-d-loop scenario off the EC. I've been looking for the models to phase this storm. Let's see if this does happen bc a lot is on the table. I must say, when taking a look at the entire North American pattern, this month is heading towards Winter in a hurry up in Canada.

 

Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow....

 

The GFS is actually doing pretty decent at longer leads right now. I think its understating the blocking development and -AO but I could be wrong. Either way, late in the run, that cold shot looks for real and could get more impressive with time.

 

Let it snow up there, indeed.

[Tom]

A few days ago I commented on the GEFS illustrating HP bleeding precariously close to the U.S./Canadian border in the extended.  With a lot of early season chill lurking across the border, all it takes is one storm and this cold air will snap into the lower 48.

 

12z GEFS are trending towards that idea during the 17th/18th time frame and flashing a direct "arctic" connection.  HP driving all the way down from the North Pole.  The LRC suggests that at this time frame, we begin a 10-15 day cooler period.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Nostalgia today. Colorado vs Nebraska football. Wow. Old big 12 classic. I bring that up because it's in the wrong time of year. It used to be played in November. Usually in crazy weather.

[Minny_Weather]

Nostalgia today. Colorado vs Nebraska football. Wow. Old big 12 classic. I bring that up because it's in the wrong time of year. It used to be played in November. Usually in crazy weather.

Too bad we played like crap in the 4th quarter lol. Lost a bet and now I have to pretend to be a Colorado fan for a week.

 

But yeah, I'd trade our Iowa Black Friday game every year for a Colorado Black Friday game every year. It just seems more right.

[OKwx2k4]

Too bad we played like crap in the 4th quarter lol. Lost a bet and now I have to pretend to be a Colorado fan for a week.

 

But yeah, I'd trade our Iowa Black Friday game every year for a Colorado Black Friday game every year. It just seems more right.

Sorry about the bet there, Buffalo.

 

I don't have a real favorite of the 2, but I agree with you. Maybe they'll move it in the future. I thought both teams actually displayed more positives than negatives. Cant have turnovers lead directly to scores. Especially that fast and early. Will kill ya every time.

 

On the weather element though, I think we'll see more cold, white "weather games" as the season rolls along.

[Minny_Weather]

Sorry about the bet there, Buffalo.

 

I don't have a real favorite of the 2, but I agree with you. Maybe they'll move it in the future. I thought both teams actually displayed more positives than negatives. Cant have turnovers lead directly to scores. Especially that fast and early. Will kill ya every time.

 

On the weather element though, I think we'll see more cold, white "weather games" as the season rolls along.

I'd love a snow game. I don't think we've had snow at one of our games since 2008 I believe. Hell, I'm going to our November 10 game against Illinois. Maybe I could luck out.

[OKwx2k4]

I'd love a snow game. I don't think we've had snow at one of our games since 2008 I believe. Hell, I'm going to our November 10 game against Illinois. Maybe I could luck out.

That's awesome. Hope it's a great game for you. The way things are looking, snow may be possible this season. Definitely wouldn't count it out.

[Tom]

We just had back-2-back days with highs in the upper 60's (69F, 69F), overcast skies and very breezy conditions. With another day in the upper 60's looking likely, I took a look back and checked the data, we haven't had a stretch of cool days in the 60's this early since Sept '14 when temps crashed into the 50's between 9/11-9/13. Back on Sept '13, it didn't happen till 9/21-9/23. With that being said, the way this pattern is developing, I think the second half will be largely cooler than the front 2 weeks.

 

Could be a Frosty morning tomorrow across parts of IA/WI/U.P....

 

[Tom]

It's nice to see the GEFS trending toward the look I had in mind.  Mid month pattern change is becoming more evident each day.  I'm going to enjoy every, single, day of this week and next weekend.  You can't ask for a better stretch of weather in the 70's and low 80's along with comfy DP's and ample sunshine.  Dust off those light jackets and hoodies in your closet, you'll be needing them post 17th/18th.

 

Pretty obvious cooling trends heading into Week 2...Autumn is hitting hard and early across the northern tier...

[Minny_Weather]

It feels like the second week of September for sure. 57.4*F.

[Tom]

Football Sunday is here!  With a day like today in Chicago, I'm totally in my Autumn spirit...how could you not be?  Bears vs Packers...Sunday night lights...even though they have sucked over the past number of years, this year they seem to have a kick in their step.  Let's see what tonight's match up unveils...the "old" Bear's or the "new" Bear's.  Let's roll!

[james1976]

It's nice to see the GEFS trending toward the look I had in mind. Mid month pattern change is becoming more evident each day. I'm going to enjoy every, single, day of this week and next weekend. You can't ask for a better stretch of weather in the 70's and low 80's along with comfy DP's and ample sunshine. Dust off those light jackets and hoodies in your closet, you'll be needing them post 17th/18th.

 

Pretty obvious cooling trends heading into Week 2...Autumn is hitting hard and early across the northern tier...

Look at all that cold in Canada. Just bleed down baby.

[Tom]

Look at all that cold in Canada. Just bleed down baby.

It's coming...we will have a real Autumn this season that starts early finally...doesn't it seem like it's been forever?

[Madtown]

[james1976]

Another perfect day here. 70 and partly cloudy with light wind.

[Tom]

[Madtown]

Same as the past 3 yrs....its our preseason...its what we get when we sit everyone for 4 weeks. We'll be just fine. Check back in 3 years when Mack is on the way down and ya gotta find 80 mil to keep your qb

[Madtown]

[Tom]

Same as the past 3 yrs....its our preseason...its what we get when we sit everyone for 4 weeks. We'll be just fine. Check back in 3 years when Mack is on the way down and ya gotta find 80 mil to keep your qb

So much can happen in 3 years. I’m living in the Now moment and enjoying the new, monster, D man.

 

Now we got a game...

[Madtown]

[Tom]