GDR Posted September 26, 2018 Report Share Posted September 26, 2018 MJO says not so fast cold! Looks to be in a warmer phase for a while but wetter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 26, 2018 Report Share Posted September 26, 2018 Next week is starting to look warm and wet. Bottom really drops off after that. Long range but fun to look at. Definitely warm. The euro now has 70s to low 80s for four days. However, south of hw20 in Iowa, it's not wet. The euro has become drier every run for me, now showing only an inch over the next ten days. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 26, 2018 Report Share Posted September 26, 2018 That's fine, let's not burn cold spells at a time when it's meaningless. Now, get me another 6 wks into Autumn, and cold waves can mean something, even here in The Mitt Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2018 After analyzing the latest JMA weeklies, the BSR may have been a good long lead forecasting tool to predict a stout SE ridge to open up October. About a week ago, when I saw the impressive Aleutian Ridge, I began to ponder on the idea that the new developing cyclical '18-'19 LRC may in fact open up with an EC ridge. The model is predicting a strong SE ridge through at least the first 2 weeks of October, maybe even the entire month??? While I don't necessarily believe there will be such a strong signal for a SE ridge through Weeks 3 & 4, due in part by using the BSR as guidance, it may be somewhat present bc the waters are so warm along the EC. The maps below show a fascinating amplified North American pattern with a major ridge along NW NAMER and into the Arctic, driving a deep trough all the way through Canada and into the deep SW...SW Flow is a great sign for our subforum.Temps Week 2... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201809.D2612_gl2.png Temps Week 3 & 4... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201809.D2612_gl2.png Precip over the next 4 weeks are abundant across practically the entire CONUS...here's a 30 day mean (MW/GL's bullseye) http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201809.D2612_gl0.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 27, 2018 Report Share Posted September 27, 2018 October tends to be a dry month. None much going on. I'd prefer it goes dry and coolish and save all that cold air for later in Novemba!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 27, 2018 Report Share Posted September 27, 2018 Apparently, the Euro is about to go to four runs per day. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 27, 2018 Report Share Posted September 27, 2018 Apparently, the Euro is about to go to four runs per day.Just in time for the cold season haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted September 27, 2018 Report Share Posted September 27, 2018 October looks snowy in Minot, North Dakota 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 A taste of #IndianSummer mid week next week??? For those who will experience their first Freeze of the season this weekend, will have an opportunity to experience some rather warm weather early/mid next week out ahead of a storm system coming out of the SW. Remnants of #Rosa coming out of the desert SW will interact with the a deep trough coming down out of SW Canada, pumping a healthy ridge out ahead of this system. This may in fact be our 1st storm system of the '18/'19 LRC pattern. A solid SW Flow has been my early guess from a couple weeks ago and it looks like its panning out. This pattern may stay put through about the 10th of the month before I believe the nation is engulfed by a major trough-like pattern. What is quite amazing by this 500mb pattern, is the magnitude of the Blocking pattern across the North Pole, EC Ridge, Hudson Bay Vortex and the NW NAMER Ridge...What a beauty of a pattern which will likely be Exhibit A of the new LRC.... But wait, is there another system right on its heels??? Another cutter in the making...this pattern is going to busy right at the open...and if things line up just right, there may be yet another E PAC tropical system that comes out of the SW during the 2nd week of October. You can't ask for a better pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 The pattern setting up for this month is ripe for storm production and cold. It took a while for the models to figure out what would happen with Super Typhoon Trami which, in turn, caused the models to flip back and forth during the extended forecast for our sub. Now that we know it will be re-curving, I'm expecting cooler trends for Week 1-2 and the EPS is seeing this. That's not all. Is there another re-curving Typhoon on the table??? Giddy up...this pattern is loaded with storm potential...I'm stoked and fired up on the development of this pattern for our sub during this month. http://wx.graphics/models/tropical/eps_WPAC_current.png 2nd Typhoon targeting Japan Day 9-10.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted September 28, 2018 Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run. It's got to come eventually right? Rinse and Repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 28, 2018 Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run. It's got to come eventually right? Rinse and Repeat. That always seems to be the case. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 28, 2018 Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run. It's got to come eventually right? Rinse and Repeat.Typical GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 28, 2018 Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 Models now agree the Rosa remnants will pass well north of Iowa midweek. However, they also agree there will be another big system just behind it that tracks farther south. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 28, 2018 Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 There have been reported gusts of 165mph. Dont worry S. Cali...it will weakened considerably by the time it gets to Northern parts of Baja, Cali. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 28, 2018 Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 When the cold comes back it will be pretty sudden. I think that's the way it was in July when this all started. The models waffled for a few days and then like 3 days out, drove the cold front down the eastern US. I think thats what we should expect. I've seen nothing which, to me at least, would suggest a warm October for most. Is it possible? Yes. Likely? No. I dont expect much long term warmth back after this next round until probably opening half of November. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 28, 2018 Report Share Posted September 28, 2018 Rosa remnants look to lock up the cold in Canada as it moves across the country. Maybe after that the cold will dump. Im not liking the heavy rain threat next week. Im STILL dealing with a wet basement from the heavy rains 2 weeks ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 I know it has to verify to count, but wow what a sight for sore eyes. BOOM! Hello new pattern! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 A taste of #IndianSummer mid week next week??? For those who will experience their first Freeze of the season this weekend, will have an opportunity to experience some rather warm weather early/mid next week out ahead of a storm system coming out of the SW. Remnants of #Rosa coming out of the desert SW will interact with the a deep trough coming down out of SW Canada, pumping a healthy ridge out ahead of this system. This may in fact be our 1st storm system of the '18/'19 LRC pattern. A solid SW Flow has been my early guess from a couple weeks ago and it looks like its panning out. This pattern may stay put through about the 10th of the month before I believe the nation is engulfed by a major trough-like pattern. What is quite amazing by this 500mb pattern, is the magnitude of the Blocking pattern across the North Pole, EC Ridge, Hudson Bay Vortex and the NW NAMER Ridge...What a beauty of a pattern which will likely be Exhibit A of the new LRC.... But wait, is there another system right on its heels??? Another cutter in the making...this pattern is going to busy right at the open...and if things line up just right, there may be yet another E PAC tropical system that comes out of the SW during the 2nd week of October. You can't ask for a better pattern. JB: "pioneer model developed by Joe D Aleo vs analog years of weaker late starting el nino with IMPACT Pacific tropical cyclones into US. Great test case coming up this winter" That's a lot of that 70's show in the analog list! #chilly'merica 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 usa_ICast (5).gif I know it has to verify to count, but wow what a sight for sore eyes. BOOM! Hello new pattern!That would be a ton of snow come Winter in our neck of the woods. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 JB: "pioneer model developed by Joe D Aleo vs analog years of weaker late starting el nino with IMPACT Pacific tropical cyclones into US. Great test case coming up this winter" That's a lot of that 70's show in the analog list! DoNCRTIXcAEMJXW.jpeg #chilly'merica DoNCPayXUAEh2OK.jpegWoof!! Woof!! If you remove 2 years from that analog set, it gets ridiculous. Big Dog incoming... WOOOOF!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 If this pattern recycles to warm central conus, high plains ridging a time or 2 more, briefly, it will be 1978 to a "T". After the last ridge went through, it was an onslaught to the spring. This is an October thread instead of a winter one but anticipation is killing me!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 I cant believe how active the GFS is over the next couple weeks. This pattern is gonna be loaded. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 The magnitude of the "Resilient Ridge" in the East is eye popping and likely a foreshadowing of the new cyclical pattern. For those who live out in the southern Plains, this jet stream pattern is a sight for sore eyes. Let me tell you, this is not an El Nino "look", which brings me some doubts that this cold season will have a traditional El Nino flavor. I think our sub will have plenty of action going forward. Boy, oh boy, fast forward this pattern into late November (when it re-cycles) and into early December, you got yourselves a "cutter alley", an "atmospheric river" across the central CONUS...what a ripe pattern for winter storms. On a side note, 'dat -AO has legs this season... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 I cant believe how active the GFS is over the next couple weeks. This pattern is gonna be loaded. Yeah, the last few euro runs have really ramped up the rainfall as well. The ensemble avg is up to 5 inches here through two weeks. The op has a band of 6 inches over northern Iowa through ten days. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Next week looks a little soggy going forward, thanks to the remnants of Rosa. Temps also do moderate, thanks to Rosa. Hopefully, she gets outta here fast. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Woof!! Woof!! If you remove 2 years from that analog set, it gets ridiculous. Big Dog incoming... WOOOOF!!So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks?? The facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 The facts.Please elaborate. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Yeah, the last few euro runs have really ramped up the rainfall as well. The ensemble avg is up to 5 inches here through two weeks. The op has a band of 6 inches over northern Iowa through ten days.Typically id love it but id like my basement to dry out lol. I love the pattern we're getting into though moving forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Unfortunately, the Des Moines radar will be down for an upgrade all next week... lousy timing. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 Please elaborate.I agree. That has always been my problem. What facts? They simply "predict" enso and write a forecast off of it. They haven't gotten enso right in a decade without changing their forecasts every single month. That tells me all I need to know. If a person supplies facts, they can tell you why they were wrong or right. What happened or didn't, etc... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 29, 2018 Report Share Posted September 29, 2018 So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks??Long range modeling and personal/leadership bias is my guess. Keep on saying its warm or going to be, people will remember that more than the truth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Let's compare the CFSv2 vs the Euro for the month of October...Some stark similarities as quite the battle zone shall setup across our sub along with the likelihood of a hyper active storm track. Taste of Winter in the north, summer continues in the S/SE??? That mean ridge in the East has drawn my attention and will pay dividends as we move into early Winter. Somebody on here is going to have a phenomenal start to Winter. CFSv2 latest run... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180930.201810.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180930.201810.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20180930.201810.gif Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 As I sit here this morning, analyzing various wx maps, when you "see" patterns from previous winter seasons that produced Big Dogs, this map below off the 00z GEFS screams a GHD-1 Blizzard scenario. My goodness, during the opening 2 weeks of October, nature is literally going to open the flood gates as the STJ churns up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 As I sit here this morning, analyzing various wx maps, when you "see" patterns from previous winter seasons that produced Big Dogs, this map below off the 00z GEFS screams a GHD-1 Blizzard scenario. My goodness, during the opening 2 weeks of October, nature is literally going to open the flood gates as the STJ churns up! Reminds me of seeing some GFS 15-day snowfall maps showing 30" across SWMI back in 13-14 season. Giddy-up! Like you've said, massive potential when this recycles during the cold season. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 I don't know how many different storm types that makes this year but if you suppress that one, I like it too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Just an incredible amount of moisture is being forecast across the majority of the MW/Plains/GL's. IA looks to be close to the epicenter.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 Just an incredible amount of moisture is being forecast across the majority of the MW/Plains/GL's. IA looks to be close to the epicenter.... Amazing how active this pattern is. Fast forward a couple months now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted September 30, 2018 Report Share Posted September 30, 2018 12Z Euro has 7-10 inches of rain over the next 10 days falling across Iowa. This is going to be a very active pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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