October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

 

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

 

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter. 

 

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!

[TT-SEA]

So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

 

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

 

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter. 

 

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!

 

 

I was going to say this last night but decided it was not worth the battle.  

[ShawniganLake]

I was going to say this last night but decided it was not worth the battle.

It’ll come down to a couple tenths of a degree of the ocean temps out in the central pacific, as to whether or not it snows here this winter.

[Deweydog]

So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

 

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

 

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter.

 

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!

I'm going with a wait-and-see approach. Similar to the last 43 winters during my lifetime.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’ll come down to a couple tenths of a degree of the ocean temps out in the central pacific, as to whether or not it snows here this winter.

 

The suspense is killing me.

[ShawniganLake]

Not bad considering we're entering a blowtorch October.

Will likely end up being the biggest snowstorm of the season in that area. Updated forecast includes a winter storm warning with totals through this afternoon of up to 18”.

[Phil]

So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

 

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

 

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter.

 

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!

Strange how obsessed this place is with imaginary correlations.

 

It’s pretty simple in this case. Phase 8/1 MJO/convection is relatively common in +ENSO regimes, and during September and October, that favors western troughing given the seasonal cycle of the wavetrain.

 

[Phil]

Low-and-behold, look at where forcing is right now.

 

[Phil]

Long story short, it’s just typical +ENSO-ish behavior, and the fate of winter will *not* be determined by whether the trimonthly ONI reaches +0.5C, or falls just short by a fraction of a degree.

[Jesse]

Long story short, it’s just typical +ENSO-ish behavior, and the fate of winter will *not* be determined by whether the trimonthly ONI reaches +0.5C, or falls just short by a fraction of a degree.

#iceagemeow

[Front Ranger]

Wet water year here... 10-15 inches above normal per this map!   

 

Side note... SEA ended up +1.82 inches for the water year so not sure why it shows below normal there on this map.  

 

 

Probably because it's based off multiple stations in that area.

 

I know, that doesn't fit with the "SEA has been WAY drier than everywhere else" theory. 

[Front Ranger]

So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

 

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

 

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter. 

 

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!

 

We're going to be looking at a 9/20 - 10/10 period that is pretty chilly. Regardless of ENSO, that is historically correlated to some pretty good winters.

[Front Ranger]

Strange how obsessed this place is with imaginary correlations.

 

It’s pretty simple in this case. Phase 8/1 MJO/convection is relatively common in +ENSO regimes, and during September and October, that favors western troughing given the seasonal cycle of the wavetrain.

 

 

Not gonna get into this with you again, Phil. But very real correlations have been posted on here plenty of times before, and you've dismissed them because you didn't agree with how they were reached.

 

But they are still existing correlations. That's all. No less real than the October correlations you've posted about. 

[Jesse]

Not gonna get into this with you again, Phil.

Seems like that’s exactly what you’re doing.

[Winterdog]

Getting wet here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful 69F in Eugene/Springfield. Expected to get to 42 tonight so nice and chilly.

[Canadian guy]

Hope currently 42 with rain and outflow winds and Abbotsford is 57 with SW winds.

[Phil]

Not gonna get into this with you again, Phil. But very real correlations have been posted on here plenty of times before, and you've dismissed them because you didn't agree with how they were reached.

 

But they are still existing correlations. That's all. No less real than the October correlations you've posted about.

Negatory. There is no October - Winter correlation that isn’t explained by ENSO or other lower frequency forcings that reside beneath the scale of intraseasonal variance. This is a fact, and denying it won’t change reality.

 

For instance, in years with a belated seasonal ITCZ/MMC cycles and/or transitioning QBOs (like last year) there is actually an *inverse* correlation between the structure of the October wavetrain and the structure of the midwinter wavetrain over North America. In other cases, there is indeed a positive correlation. But the point is that there are decipherable reasons for these correlations and they’re not confined to any particular calandar month.

[Deweydog]

Well below average for the water year so far...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Ben Noll@BenNollWeather

 

After the exceptional eastern early October warmth fades, some chillier conditions are likely, but milder air may be back in time for November. Cold in the Plains, early snows northern tier?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1046902542217576448

[WeatherArchive]

Well below average for the water year so far...

Except some people's backyards.

[BLI snowman]

Well below average for the water year so far...

 

It is funny since the water year actually only began yesterday.

 

Also, because droughts! LOL!

[Front Ranger]

Seems like that’s exactly what you’re doing.

Nah, I didn't bother getting into the actual correlations because I know he won't listen.

[TT-SEA]

Probably because it's based off multiple stations in that area.

 

I know, that doesn't fit with the "SEA has been WAY drier than everywhere else" theory. 

 

I never said SEA was way drier than everywhere else.   

 

But here are some 2017-18 "water year" rainfall departures:

 

SEA  +1.82

 

SEA WFO  +5.24

 

OLM   +2.51

 

BLI  +1.57

 

HQM  +1.55

 

 

I am not seeing a major station up here with that was drier than normal for the water year.

[Phil]

For example, I can select years with phase-8 forcing in October, and get an inverse correlation for DJF.

 

[BLI snowman]

Ben Noll@BenNollWeather

 

After the exceptional eastern early October warmth fades, some chillier conditions are likely, but milder air may be back in time for November. Cold in the Plains, early snows northern tier?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1046902542217576448

 

Ben Noll also thinks that 2016-17 should be a very warm winter for the Northwestern states in particular.

[Jesse]

Wonder how far PDX will get into the 70s today with this crazy chilly airmass moving in!

[BLI snowman]

Nah, I didn't bother getting into the actual correlations because I know he won't listen.

 

Nobody could possibly begin to correlate like you can.

[BLI snowman]

Wonder how far PDX will get into the 70s today with this crazy chilly airmass moving in!

 

Yes. Tomorrow will as well.

[Front Ranger]

I never said SEA was way drier than everywhere else.

 

But here are some 2017-18 "water year" rainfall departures:

 

SEA +1.82

 

SEA WFO +5.24

 

OLM +2.51

 

BLI +1.57

 

HQM +1.55

 

 

I am not seeing a major station up here with that was drier than normal for the water year.

Wonder if the baseline is different for the WRCC maps?

[Phil]

For example, I can select years with phase-8 forcing in October, and get an inverse correlation for DJF.

 

 

But does this mean anything? No, it doesn’t.

 

Not only does the same phase-8 MJO forcing produce a completely different pattern in January when compared to October, but there’s no guarantee that the aforementioned MJO forcing in October will emulate the midwinter background state from a structural standpoint. There are so many outliers that you can’t even obtain a ration EOF within a reasonable correlation coefficient on the aggregate.

[MossMan]

Still raining!

[Jesse]

Yes. Tomorrow will as well.

Time to throw some extra logs in the wood stove!

[Front Ranger]

Nobody could possibly begin to correlate like you can.

I do have a PhD in Correlations.

[TT-SEA]

Wonder if the baseline is different for the WRCC maps?

 

 

If so... then the maps make it look drier.

 

Meaning my area might be more 15 inches above normal for the 2017-18 water year.    Its been really wet!    Do my trees need more than 15 inches above the normal rainfall to survive?         Jesse said they are about to start a massive die off.   

 

Only 8.5 inches of rain here since the second week of September.   The land is parched.   

[Phil]

Nah, I didn't bother getting into the actual correlations because I know he won't listen.

With all due respect, I think you’re the one that refuses to listen when I point out flaws in your analysis.

 

For instance, if you lump all ENSOs together, you will obtain a bogus result that simply reflects ENSO.

 

To determine whether the pattern in October is predictive of the pattern in DJF, you need to determine the correlation coefficient (assuming there is a homogenous EOF structure to begin with) independent of ENSO et al.

[Jesse]

What I wouldn’t give for a solid 48-72 hour period of not seeing the sun. Probably been since early April.

[BLI snowman]

Time to throw some extra logs in the wood stove!

 

Such a chilly fall!

 

People need to realize that that word means nothing now. PDX had a high of 52 on this date in 1940. And that was in a blowtorch year!

 

Those days are long gone and that will remain the case regardless of how slightly below average the next 10 days are.

[TT-SEA]

For those living in the sopping wet areas... the dry days per the 12Z ECMWF include:

 

Wednesday

Thursday

Saturday 

Sunday (except the NW interior)

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

 

Plan accordingly!  

 

The wet days shown on the 12Z run are this Friday and next Monday and Tuesday.   

[Phil]

Ben Noll also thinks that 2016-17 should be a very warm winter for the Northwestern states in particular.

Model-ology is an enticing trap.

 

Pretty colors!