Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 EPO also looks to tank as we head into December. Blocky fall meet blocky winter! So far, so good! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 No one saw all this record November eastern cold/snow coming. I think it's fair to say all bets are off right now. I posted a map earlier, but about 80% of the lower 48 has been below average in November. The middle of the country significantly so. I saw Cedar Rapids, IA is running about a 7F departure with several days of well below average temps coming up. They'll probably end up with about an 8F departure which is about what PDX saw in November 1985. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 The tops of the closest mountains to my house (Golden Ears and a few behind it) were covered in snow today. Golden Ears had a dusting only, and the others behind it were much more thickly blanketed. There are glaciers behind Golden Ears. It's quite stunning. I wish I could fly over it some day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 In Flatiron’s world it’s EPO or bust. Nothing else matters. The PV (aka: the cold air production system) is somehow irrelevant. Forget about the fact it’s the wave-1 structure itself that acts as the -EPO conduit. Random outburst... The AO, NAO, and EPO all play a role in delivering cold to the mid latitudes. The EPO is the most consequential for the CONUS, including the PNW. It is what it is. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I'm liking the chances for below to well below average temps next month and the CFS agrees so you guys can probably just stop looking at the models now. http://i65.tinypic.com/34gaans.pngI pin all my hopes and dreams on the CFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I posted a map earlier, but about 80% of the lower 48 has been below average in November. The middle of the country significantly so. I saw Cedar Rapids, IA is running about a 7F departure with several days of well below average temps coming up. They'll probably end up with about an 8F departure which is about what PDX saw in November 1985. Yeah I think someone mentioned it before that the eastern two thirds is going through a NW version of November 1985 this year. Pretty incredible. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 That's a nice system going into California later this week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Random outburst... The AO, NAO, and EPO all play a role in delivering cold to the mid latitudes. The EPO is the most consequential for the CONUS, including the PNW. It is what it is.Perhaps, but storm track/precipitation tendencies and subsequent wavebreak cycles (which can actually evolve into EPO blocks, similar to the current one) are more affected by the NAO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Decent shot of mountain snow into the Oregon Cascades late in the week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Any ideas where this month is going to end up nationally in terms of cold Novembers? Coldest since? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Perhaps, but storm track/precip tendencies and subsequent wavebreak cycles (which can evolve into EPO blocks, similar to the current one) are more affected by the NAO. Regardless, it's all high latitude blocking, all of it increases chances of us getting cold, and it's all more likely than normal this winter. God bless low solar/weak ENSO. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Regardless, it's all high latitude blocking, all of it increases chances of us getting cold, and it's all more likely than normal this winter. God bless low solar/weak ENSO.We agree here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Decent shot of mountain snow into the Oregon Cascades late in the week. did later this week happen already ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Any ideas where this month is going to end up nationally in terms of cold Novembers? Coldest since? 2014 was pretty cold. It will probably have a tough time beating that. That one was the coldest in quite a awhile, I believe, maybe since 2000? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 ICON is cool and dry. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Through hour 186 the GFS is not going to generate a lot of excitement. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Through hour 186 the GFS is not going to generate a lot of excitement. That's for sure. The weak storm tomorrow is the only thing of note in these first 186 hours. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Yeah I think someone mentioned it before that the eastern two thirds is going through a NW version of November 1985 this year. Pretty incredible. November 1985 was much more historically impressive on the whole for the region than this month has been in the East. I think Missouri is the only place where the monthly averages may end up legitimately top tier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 That's for sure. The weak storm tomorrow is the only thing of note in these first 186 hours.Move north, we will be going underwater up here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Through hour 186 the GFS is not going to generate a lot of excitement. Days 9-10 look to be pretty good though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Move north, we will be going underwater up here. I'm jealous, you guys really do get the brunt of the storm. It's not all that impressive to begin with, but you'll get the full force! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Oh Phil, no other way you can respond without be condescending or without hyperbole.... well done sir! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Oh Phil, no other way you can respond without be condescending or without hyperbole.... well done sir!Pot meet kettle. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Any ideas where this month is going to end up nationally in terms of cold Novembers? Coldest since? 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Days 9-10 look to be pretty good though. For you. W. Oregon looks warm with heavy rain Eugene/south. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 2014. That isn't super exciting, but at least we are going to pull of a below average month nationally. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Yeah, it hasn’t been very impressive here. Haven’t seen a low below 25*F yet. Even last year we’d already dropped to 22*F, before Thanksgiving. And that was an average November in the end. I think folks have been so cold anomaly starved that they're reaching a bit. Kind of like the local media when it snows a trace in Seattle or Portland. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 For you. W. Oregon looks warm with heavy rain Eugene/south. Lots of snow for the Sierras/Siskiyous this run. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I think folks have been so cold anomaly starved that they're reaching a bit. Kind of like the local media when it snows a trace in Seattle or Portland.Yep. Six consecutive months with positive departures will do that sort of thing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I think folks have been so cold anomaly starved that they're reaching a bit. Kind of like the local media when it snows a trace in Seattle or Portland. It's been a legitimately impressive month. May actually beat 2014, which would make it the coldest November since at least 2000. And there have been lots of cold and snow records set as well. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Lots of snow for the Sierras/Siskiyous this run.How about extreme northern Snohomish Co.? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I am just going to leave the clown range GFS alone tonight... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 I am just going to leave the clown range GFS alone tonight... Looks wet! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Hour 288 could be leading to something if the Aleutian ridge continues to move just a bit further east.The broad/flat Aleutian ridge pattern might work well for people like Tim/Andrew, but it’s a con job in the Arctic air department. Really puts a lid on wave amplification. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 The EPS weeklies are absolutely hideous. Probably wrong but still..hideous. Vortex in Alaska after D20, winter heatwave from the PNW thru the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, with a small pocket of cool anomalies in the Deep South. Complete blast furnace. But...8-9? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Took this pic today while at the hospital in Everett picking up my dad, he was on the 10th floor with an amazing view of the cascades. He’s glad to be home however! 5 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 This run was going places until the flat aleutian ridge killed the poleward-vertical wave actually. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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