November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Landslide or the road washout?

 

It was all new... we did not know what we had at the time. Seems foolish in retrospect. I kept imagining a massive landslide burying us alive so insurance would be irrelevant in that case... and then that actually happened in Oso in March 2014 killing 43 people. Different topography here though... much more rocky here with a lower landslide risk.

 

As a result of that road and bridge washout... our HOA now puts aside a significant part of our dues into an emergency fund. We have built up enough in that account to rebuild the entire road... all 2.5 miles of it. And King County implemented major flood control improvements as well after that event and the January 2009 flood.

 

And the power grid was completely rebuilt after the 2006 windstorm and its all underground to North Bend so we never lose power now.

 

We are in a much better position today thanks to those extreme events.

 

Putting lines underground is a great idea. I wonder what would be the barriers to doing that more. Maybe cost? Because wind or snow knocks out power so much up here one would think they would put the lines underground. 

[Blizzard777]

Another band about to add to it! My station report so far for today

Follow up to a very active day on the south sound

[Blizzard777]

At 6 this morning the rain gauge had 0.65" on the day, now it's up to 1.90". That downpour around 2 must've dropped well over an inch of rain.

Brothers gauge near your location measured .75 with that cell!

[TT-SEA]

Putting lines underground is a great idea. I wonder what would be the barriers to doing that more. Maybe cost? Because wind or snow knocks out power so much up here one would think they would put the lines underground.

 

I am sure cost is a barrier. But most of the power grid was destroyed in that windstorm so they basically had to start over anyways... so they did it right at least in our area. In hindsight... its amazing that they got it done in just 10 days. I remember seeing hundreds of utility trucks roaming this area at that time and most were from out of state. It was an amazing effort.

 

I did not realize at the time how much of an improvement it would be or I would have been cheering on that windstorm as it happened! The power has gone out here ONE time in the 12 years since that storm (the ice storm in 2012 and just for 2 days). It would go out all the time before that storm. Any wind at all and the power would be out.... It was out for half of December 2005 with that east wind. Now the wind can blow for days or we can get buried in snow and it never goes out.

[Front Ranger]

Another example of things trending colder as they get closer this year.

 

3 days ago, these were the temps being shown 8 days out.

 

 

 

Fast forward to the temps now being shown 5 days out.

 

[MossMan]

Putting lines underground is a great idea. I wonder what would be the barriers to doing that more. Maybe cost? Because wind or snow knocks out power so much up here one would think they would put the lines underground.

We have underground power here at our new place, and the main road in front of our property is also underground. The problem is the feeder lines are of course still above ground but still in heavy treed areas so the power here still goes out a lot according to our neighbors. Have already experienced one 5hr outage. Generator works great though!

[Bryant]

I sent a text to my wife, mom, and sister today with a pic of the weather station I would like for Christmas since they constantly ask me what I would like and I always say nothing, get the kids stuff but I am good. Well I decided this year I would throw it out there...and my wife told her mom (yep mom in law is visiting from Arizona) and she said I was being ridiculous and what a waste of money...she clearly does not care about what the current 850’s are at.

Which weather station?

[MossMan]

Which weather station?

Which weather station?

This one.

[TT-SEA]

We have underground power here at our new place, and the main road in front of our property is also underground. The problem is the feeder lines are of course still above ground but still in heavy treed areas so the power here still goes out a lot according to our neighbors. Have already experienced one 5hr outage. Generator works great though!

 

The feeder lines are the key to success.

 

Our development was actually all undergound from the start... but we were completely surrounded by feeder lines that were above ground until the wind knocked down all the lines in December 2006.    Then they put all of our feeder lines underground as well... all the way to the main substation in North Bend.   Problem solved.  

[Jesse]

Sure starting to look dry again after the next couple days.

[TT-SEA]

Sure stating to look dry again after the next couple days.

That has been evident for several days now.

 

And Thursday has always been shown to be dry.    Friday is wetter than Thursday.

[Jesse]

That has been evident for several days now.

 

And Thursday has always been shown to be dry. Friday is wetter than Thursday.

Ensembles have gradually gotten drier down here the last few runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sure starting to look dry again after the next couple days.

 

Well dry is how we get most of our cold anomalies this time of year. Especially with +ENSO. So we cant complain to much. Plus this dry streak does not look nearly as long as the one we recently exited.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Are you saying worst case scenario for weather weenies or the general public?

General public.

[TT-SEA]

Ensembles have gradually gotten drier down the last few runs.

 

Well none of the operational models have shown anything close to a wet pattern from this Thursday through next Thursday.     If you are talking about after day 9 or 10... then that can easily change back again.    The EPS shows what is likely a very wet pattern in the 10-15 day period.

[TT-SEA]

General public.

 

That would be a terrible idea.   They would lose all credibility instantly.   Dewey called it shock jock forecasting.    

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks like it's going into a wet pattern at day 10.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That would be a terrible idea. They would lose all credibility instantly. Dewey called it shock jock forecasting.

You wouldn't tell them the worst case scenario all the time. Only during events that warrant it. You would give them the forecast but at the same time notify them of a worst case scenario. Nothing wrong with that. Sort of what Steve Pierce did for the January 2017 PDX event, since he was really the only person to hint of a possibly bigger event.

[Jesse]

Well dry is how we get most of our cold anomalies this time of year. Especially with +ENSO. So we cant complain to much. Plus this dry streak does not look nearly as long as the one we recently exited.

I really dont see any reason to be so worried about it

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[ShawniganLake]

Still under a half inch since Sunday night up here.

Wow. We’ve had almost 4” here

[MossMan]

Wow. We’ve had almost 4” here

The power of the Olympics!

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 1.83" on the day while BFI is at 0.71". Quite a gradient.

BFI did manage 2.07 inches for the storm though.

[Bryant]

This one.

It has great ratings! Looks like a nice station

[Timmy Supercell]

33 out now. Any moisture that makes it here early enough in the morning will fall as snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z just got interesting. Days 3-4 looks like hot garbage, but Days 4-5 the block is more amplified, not as broad and even though the ridge/block merger was slightly delayed this run is colder. Better tilt. Day 6-7 850s -12c The Dalles on this run. Wow

[Gradient Keeper]

And just like that, I am cautiously optimistic yet again. All we needed was the energy moving towards the Aleutians handled similarly as previous runs had with the Aleutian ridge/Gulf of Alaska block merger occurring a bit sooner and with this kind of configuration/tilt of the block we would have a modified blast for PDX. Heights were a bit higher across the south on this run too.

 

12z GFS in 4 hours 52 minutes

12z ECMWF in 7 hours 10 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS just trended a little chillier with next week.

[Phil]

Too late... she is already turning 9.

 

And did I mention that my wife and I really do love it here? My wife tells our kids all the time that they are blessed to grow up in such a beautiful place.

Bull.

[Phil]

Putting lines underground is a great idea. I wonder what would be the barriers to doing that more. Maybe cost? Because wind or snow knocks out power so much up here one would think they would put the lines underground.

Cost is the primary reason, yeah. Unless the infrastructure is almost completely destroyed you’ll seldom see old lines buried.

 

Our lines were switched to underground after the blowdown of 1989, and it was a great move since we don’t lose power nearly as much as locations with above-ground lines.

[El_Nina]

Brothers gauge near your location measured .75 with that cell!

There may have been other showers during the day that added to the rain too, so maybe the downpour wasn't over an inch. It's either that or your brother was just on the outskirts of it, it was a narrow band.

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

Bull.

 

That was rude.   

[TT-SEA]

Some of the more impressive rainfall totals since Sunday:

 

SEA 3.28

Bremerton 3.25

Boeing Field 2.18

Auburn 2.58

Olympia 2.04

Shelton 2.79

 

Quillayute 5.14

Forks 5.51

Owl Mountain 9.72

 

Mount Baker 9.63

Darrington 5.10

Skykomish 3.00

Snoqualmie Pass 4.34

North Bend 2.87

Rainier Paradise 4.31

 

 

SEA has also picked up 4.21 inches in the 5 days between Thanksgiving afternoon and Tuesday and managed a dry weekend in that span.

[Jesse]

Some of the more impressive rainfall totals since Sunday:

 

SEA 3.28

Bremerton 3.25

Boeing Field 2.18

Auburn 2.58

Olympia 2.04

Shelton 2.79

 

Quillayute 5.14

Forks 5.51

Owl Mountain 9.72

 

Mount Baker 9.63

Darrington 5.10

Skykomish 3.00

Snoqualmie Pass 4.34

North Bend 2.87

Rainier Paradise 4.31

 

 

SEA has also picked up 4.21 inches in the 5 days between Thanksgiving afternoon and Tuesday and managed a dry weekend in that span.

Really just an impressive exclamation point on what has been an impressively wet November, regionally. One for the books now.

 

[TT-SEA]

Really just an impressive exclamation point on what has been an impressively wet November, regionally. One for the books now.

 

05CCE1B5-9D4B-4D23-95F5-98E4F03DA09B.png

 

Did I say that Jesse?   

 

Sure has been a wet 5-day period though!    SEA has received 70% of their normal rainfall for the entire month of November since just Thanksgiving afternoon.     Focused heavy rain and here comes another nice dry spell now.   

[Jesse]

Did I say that Jesse?

 

Sure has been a wet 5-day period though! SEA has received 70% of their normal rainfall for the entire month of November since just Thanksgiving afternoon. Focused heavy rain and here comes another nice dry spell now.

It was a pretty run of the mill late November storm. And we certainly are far from due for another dry spell, but that’s just how 2018 has been going. Dry/droughty year.

[Jesse]

Nice to see some stratiform rain moving into the Portland metro this morning.

[TT-SEA]

It was a pretty run of the mill late November storm. And we certainly are far from due for another dry spell, but that’s just how 2018 has been going. Dry/droughty year.

 

 

For Oregon and SW WA.    But you want to lump us all together again.   

 

It was an impressive stretch up here over the last 5 days.   And this year has not been that dry.     SEA is only 2 inches below normal for the year... WFO SEA is within an inch of normal now.     Hard to say its been so droughty up here when we are not in a drought and a large swath of the area is actually wetter than normal this year!    

 

And this map will be updated again later today.   

 

[Jesse]

Looks like maybe 20% of the state has been wetter than average this year. And the majority of that area has been in the mountains, well outside of population centers.

 

If you include Oregon that percentage drops to maybe ~10%. And that is probably being generous.