Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Folks, dust off those shovels and gas up 'em snowblowers, the models are now beginning to converge on the seasons first widespread winter storm of the season across the northern half of our sub. It's always exciting tracking the first winter storm, esp post Thanksgiving opening the door into the holiday season. Let's dive in... 00z EPS certainly likes N KS/NE/NW IA/MN and into WI....similar to what the 06z GEFS are indicating... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018112006/180/snod.conus.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 For those of us near the Lower GL's, to get any appreciable snow, we need the GFS to continue bombing out the system in the E GL's to provide us with an opportunity for backwash snows. Given the magnitude of blocking in SE Canada, this is a viable solution and one I'm looking for going forward. I was surprised to see the 00z Euro come in weaker but that is also a possibility. Nonetheless, we will have plenty of days ahead to monitor these changes. I'm not to worried about this system cutting NW, in fact, I can see it continue advertising a southern track. What is causing the snows to fall so far NW, is the CF from the lead system out ahead of it isn't allowing it to press south like you normally would like to see. What this storm needs to do is to strengthen and produce its own cold air quicker to allow for better snows closer to the SLP. Boy, what a nice track though on the 06z GEFS...at this range, these models won't see the storms produce their own cold air so look for these changes down the road. Knowing how storms have behaved this season, and model behavior, I'd lean colder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 I fear there’s just too much warm air with this system to bring a snowstorm in this neck of the woods, but it is nice to have something to look at on the models at least. Hopefully the sign of what’s an active winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 I fear there’s just too much warm air with this system to bring a snowstorm in this neck of the woods, but it is nice to have something to look at on the models at least. Hopefully the sign of what’s an active winter. The LRC would suggest a slower and more southern track. The blocking should be strong enough to cause the storm to dig and generate more cold air. This is one of the storms I picked out to produce at least several inches for me. Also be on the look out for a bomb to follow about 6 days later. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 I'm actively rooting against this one or for it to trend later. Sorry guys, I need to get back home Sunday! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 I'm actively rooting against this one or for it to trend later. Sorry guys, I need to get back home Sunday!Boo don't ruin the fun! Lol. I definitely understand that, hate dealing with big weather events when I have to travel. The worst I had was flying back to Omaha from Florida during an early spring Dixie alley tornado outbrake. I don't think I ever let go of the arm rest. Definitely like the constant trend in the models. The warm air has me nervous, but man what a good way to kick this winter into gear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Icon and gfs both coming in farther south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 More wound up system on that run. I think south is the way to go. Although I’m more interested in what the ensembles show than the operational. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 12z icon is a great hit for Nebraska. Yes please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 12z GFS...that's a nice hit for everyone NW of here... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112012/162/snku_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112012/162/snku_acc.us_c.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Okay, that run was slightly better. Either need it to shift south more or just have more cold air to worth with! Plenty of time for both of those to happen. Also, plenty of time for it to shift significantly further north as well.. but we just won’t talk about that for now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Besides the snow, the GFS is predicting widespread 40-50 mph wind gusts across the Plains in NE/KS. Blizzard potential??? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 12z GFS...that's a nice hit for everyone NW of here... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112012/162/snku_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112012/162/snku_acc.us_c.pngGFS swath of snow is weird looking, you would think the path of snow would continue all the way back to NW Kansas but thermals are an issue. Plenty of time for this thing to change, will be a fun week tracking! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Looking weaker and warm for SMI. sigh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 My God I love how that looks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 From the DVN this morning: “The second system looks to be stronger of the two systems. Guidance shows an extended area of WAA precip looks possible before the main low and wave moves through the area. Wrap around precip around the low looks to be snow. Current guidance has most of the area seeing rain changing into snow later on Sunday night. That said, any changes to the track of the system could lead to significant differences in impacts associated with this system. This system will need to watched. Those planning on traveling Sunday across the upper Midwest may want to start thinking about other options if snow becomes more clear.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 That warp around noch of warm air over Omaha on the GFS run is not any fun. But atm Northeast looks like the fun zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Yeah lots of warm air drawing up in front of the system. The SLP placement is decent for Eastern Iowa typically, but with all the warm air it's not looking good on this run. That seems to happen more frequently in our area anymore. GFS has been all over the map with this storm, but good to see it coming back to it again. I have a feeling it will stay put this time. Euro has been steady with a storm just all over the place on placement of the snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 12z GEM gonna make a hard left turn. Just to add to the model fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 The lack of any cold HP near the GL’s is keeping this storm from being an all out snowstorm, instead it’s a rain to snow scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Canadian also a good hit. Getting more and more excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Almost all rain here on the GEM. That’s disgusting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Yeah lots of warm air drawing up in front of the system. The SLP placement is decent for Eastern Iowa typically, but with all the warm air it's not looking good on this run. That seems to happen more frequently in our area anymore. GFS has been all over the map with this storm, but good to see it coming back to it again. I have a feeling it will stay put this time. Euro has been steady with a storm just all over the place on placement of the snow.Not totally shocked with the warm air this time of year, but with how tame our winters have been lately... you hate to miss out on any potential storm that is sooo close to being a good one. Hopefully this storm either goes further south or finds a way to get some cold air wrapped in faster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 On a side note, that wave of rain on Friday night - Saturday around here has been trending more and more wet on each run it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 That Canadian run man that's a blast for central Nebraska and Souix City. Very similar to a snow event two years ago. That one was much later in the season though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Canadian does not tap into any cold air as it heads east. It weakens and stays warm even on the back side. Kind've odd. Blasts NE and then basically turns into all rain. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018112012/186/snku_acc.us_c.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Canadian does not tap into any cold air as it heads east. It weakens and stays warm even on the back side. Kind've odd. Blasts NE and then basically turns into all rain. Is the Canadian worth anything anymore? I feel like with the lame winters we’ve had and being a college student, I’ve been so tapped out of tracking weather for a while. It just seems like this model is rarely right and changes it’s mind more than my fiancée trying to decide where she wants to eat. Not doubting this solution, because I think anything is possible right now. Just generally curious on how the models have been doing over the last few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 12z GEFS ensembles shifted south overall from 6z. Still a wide spread and several members are also showing this thing crapping out as it moves east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 How about this one and extend that heavy snow band off to the southwest?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 The FV3-GFS solution is interesting. It looks like the cold air is wrapping around well at Hour 126 with the SLP in N Missouri, but then more warm air gets ejected in by the next frame as the storm starts to slowly weaken. If it held form as it traveled east, it would make for a nice snowfall here after some initial WAA rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Man the GEM is a buzz kill lol. But most trends looking great Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 The new GFS has temps rapidly dropping and snow rates of 1-2" per hour from hour 114-120. Call me skeptical. 114 http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018112012/114/snku_acc.us_c.png 120 http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018112012/120/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Man oh man fv3 drops a snow bomb here. Love it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Euro with a 990 SLP in WC Missouri at hour 120. Looks similar to the GFS in terms of the 850 line. It'll be a bit before the snow maps update, but I'd guess based on this, western Iowa and Eastern Nebraska will be in for a good run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 SLP scoots all the way to Erie, PA on the next frame 24 hours later, so hard to tell until precip maps update what the details are though. I think Nebraska and Western Iowa into southern MN and WI will fare well though. I might get some wrap around snow, which would be cool as I'm planning on cutting down my first ever real Christmas tree on Monday. Would be pretty cool if it was snowing or had just snowed while doing that . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 How well has the FV3 done lately? That run was wild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Hard to tell how that run went without knowing what happened between 120 and 144. I’m guessing probably a little warm here again. Don’t see anything to suggest otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 20, 2018 Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Fv3 hasn't been great. As pointed out the nam has been the best. Although the Canadian was the best with most recent round of energy that gave us about an inch most models blew it off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2018 Hard to tell how that run went without knowing what happened between 120 and 144. I’m guessing probably a little warm here again. Don’t see anything to suggest otherwise.12z Euro good hit for S NE/N KS/N MO/ SE IA/S WI...a band of 2-8” in NW MO into SE IA/ S WI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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