11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[bud2380]

Canadian looks closer to the NAM. Much further north than the GFS

[bud2380]

FV3 well north of regular GFS as well.

[Clinton]

FV3 well north of regular GFS as well.

 

But about 60 miles further south than it's last run.

[East Dubzz]

FV3 well north of regular GFS as well.

A shift south, but a nice run. Hopefully the Euro stays put. Would hate to see this shift so far south that we don’t get anything.

[bud2380]

Ukie looks similar to the Canadian and NAM.

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie looks like it came N , slightly W.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Fv3 18z had 13 here now 4. Definitely more south. Post ukmet if anyone has it

[jaster220]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112300/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

There's some NAM luv. Bringing the purples to SWMI. Now to see if indeed we have a 0z NAM-Euro dynamic duo

[Money]

South trend is def real the last few runs

[East Dubzz]

South trend is def real the last few runs

No doubt. Storm is still a ways away though, so we’ll see if it continues or comes back north a little.

[Hawkeye]

That upper low to the north is killing us.  The FV3 finally caved and now pokes it much farther south.  I hope the models have that feature wrong.

[Madtown]

wow...shut out up here!

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

[East Dubzz]

Come on Euro.. keep the dream alive.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yea whoever said the UK came north was wrong. Barely anything here with that

[ToastedRavs]

FV3 still gives Des Moines metro and south 10 to 15. Basically a solid hit from St. Joe, Mo to Milwaukee

[Minny_Weather]

Yea whoever said the UK came north was wrong. Barely anything here with that

North compared to ICON I guess lol

[GDR]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

That above came south from 18z.

[GDR]

That above came south from 18z.

south and weaker

[jaster220]

Whoa! @ Ukie for SMI

[jaster220]

Looping the 0z NAM couldn't help but notice it basically has a 995 mb SLP for OMA and brings it NE at a steady state. Gone are the trends of deepening this closer to 990 mb as it heads towards the Lakes

[Money]

That upper low to the north is killing us. The FV3 finally caved and now pokes it much farther south. I hope the models have that feature wrong.

Yup. Stronger and slower with it which kills us

 

Be kind of funny to get missed three times already to the south. Usually don’t see that in Nov

[Money]

No doubt. Storm is still a ways away though, so we’ll see if it continues or comes back north a little.

Yeah I’ve seen storms before correct way too far south only to move back north closer to the event. Just need that northern stream system to be weaker and faster

[jaster220]

Yup. Stronger and slower with it which kills us

 

Be kind of funny to get missed three times already to the south. Usually don’t see that in Nov

 

Yeah, almost never remember a strong storm that didn't trend north of SMI during Nov and/or Dec. One notable exception was the Dec 2000 bliz which took a very similar track to where this is going. Eerily similar and just a few weeks earlier on the calendar

[Grizzcoat]

Yea whoever said the UK came north was wrong. Barely anything here with that

came N from last 2 runs--last nights run had bulk of precip shield S of CHI town

[Money]

Euro gonna trend south with rest of the models

 

996 L for northern stream system much farther south than last run with it. Low is already south compared to 0z last at 48

[jaster220]

Always nice to read those words in your AFD

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Nov 22 2018

Our main focus with this forecast has to do with the potential
winter storm for late Sunday into early Monday.

 

 

After a break in the weather late Sat and early Sun, our main
weather maker will move in potentially as early as Sunday morning. A
lot of uncertainty remains with the system with regards to the
detail of the timing, track, and p-types. The models all have the
general synoptic pattern well in hand having a jet streak diving in
from the nrn Rockies, and cutting off a low over the Plains before
lifting NE.

The uncertainty then lies with how much does the low close off and
then how does it track to the NE. The quickest of the solutions is
the GFS, closing it off later and moving it through quicker as a
result. More of a consensus is centered around more of a closed
upper low, which is slower and deeper with the associated sfc low.
This would bring more of a textbook snow event to the area with the
warm advection aloft ahead of the system, and deformation zone with
the upper low moving through the area.

The latest model trends have shifted the band of heaviest snow
further SE to Srn Lower, and change from the 00z runs where the
heavier snow was across Nrn Lower with our area seeing rain and some
mixed pcpn. The latest trends could have some rain initially
changing to mixed pcpn, then mainly snow for much of the event. It
is too early to pin down these details at this time, but we will
closely monitor the latest trends.

No matter how the Sun/Mon system evolves, it looks like we will see
upper troughing and colder air become established for the first half
of next week. The upper jet expecting to be south of the area and
short waves moving through, will allow for some impactful lake
effect to be possible.

[jcwxguy]

Euro south

[GDR]

Euro way south very interesting

[jcwxguy]

2-3" Omaha/Lincoln

[jcwxguy]

8-10 kc

[hlcater]

Pretty terrible trends at 00z for significant snowfall in E IA. I never thought we'd see much from this, but I thought it would've been a miss to the NW, not the SE.

[GDR]

2-3 not bad with gusty winds

[GDR]

Chi town smoke job still possible

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

EURO looks like the UKIE from last night. lol.

[hlcater]

That euro map is infuriating to say the least. 

[East Dubzz]

Dang, from a nice storm to possibly nothing. Knew the runs had been good for too long.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yep, sorry Iowa folks....you just got Nebraska'd lol. Time to throw the towel in!