11/24 - 11/26 Winter Storm

[snowstorm83]

3km NAM looked better in previous runs but is also south and weaker now

[East Dubzz]

Looks like it. Gfs/gfs FV3/cmc all got it down to sub 995 or so

 

Not sure about euro

At 12z on Sunday, the Euro has a 998mb SLP in SE Kansas. The NAM has a 1000mb low in east central Missouri. Not sure what happens after that with the Euro, though.

[Sciascia]

Stripe of 6 inches nudged south compared to 18z from near the IL/WI border to Chicago metro.

[East Dubzz]

Well, it was an improvement from 12z, but slightly worse than the 18z. Not sure what to think about it. Guess we’ll see what the other models do.

[Money]

Well, it was an improvement from 12z, but slightly worse than the 18z. Not sure what to think about it. Guess we’ll see what the other models do.

Last time NAM went south the rest of the models went north

[East Dubzz]

Last time NAM went south the rest of the models went north

Haha that’s a good point. We shall see.

[Money]

Rgem is south/weaker as well from its 18z run

[Money]

RGEM at 48

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif

 

Stronger than NAM but weaker than 18z

[East Dubzz]

ICON seems to be on about the same track - maybe slightly slower than the previous run. Still very strong.

[Money]

ICON seems to be on about the same track - maybe slightly slower than the previous run. Still very strong.

Nearly identical at 45 and 1 mb stronger than 18z

[East Dubzz]

Nearly identical at 45 and 1 mb stronger than 18z

Kinda crazy how similar it is, really.

[Tony]

18z Euro if your interested

[East Dubzz]

When did the Euro get a 18z run?

 

Same with the Canadian?

[East Dubzz]

Got a feeling we’re going to see the GFS cave and start to come slightly south tonight. The other models really haven’t budged, and we’re starting to get to that time where models usually converge a little better. Seems to be a “south” trend tonight. Not a huge one, but nothing has really come north at all on any of the 00z runs.

[Money]

Got a feeling we’re going to see the GFS cave and start to come slightly south tonight. The other models really haven’t budged, and we’re starting to get to that time where models usually converge a little better. Seems to be a “south” trend tonight. Not a huge one, but nothing has really come north at all on any of the 00z runs.

Would be kind of funny if it went even farther north lol

[East Dubzz]

Would be kind of funny if it went even farther north lol

I mean, I can’t say I’d be surprised haha.

 

Not because that’s what I expect, but because it seems like something that would happen just to make things more difficult.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the GFS will likely begin sagging south this evening.

[jaster220]

18z Euro if your interested

 

Very interested, lol. Seems to be the only model at 18z that does NOT show a low party at my place. Tbh, this is tiring. Out of the game, wait! In the game. Check that! out of the game again.

[hlcater]

Gonna be close for CR. The 00z RGEM/NAM/ICON(which are all in relative agreement) all bring the razor sharp northern cutoff through Linn county.

[Money]

Not much difference through hr 24. Maybe 1 mb weaker or so

[Stormhunter87]

GFS is south

[Money]

GFS is south

Actually north through hr 30

[East Dubzz]

GFS is south

I don’t really see much of a difference thus far.

[Stormhunter87]

Seems pretty south to me I guess I need to look at the 18z

[Money]

By 36 it’s one mb stronger and a tad north than 18z...

[Stormhunter87]

Well nvm that is a huge spike north on hour 33

[East Dubzz]

By 36 it’s one mb stronger and a tad north than 18z...

Yeah, unless something changes here in the next frame, I’m guessing the GFS is going to stay with basically the same soluarion as before.

[East Dubzz]

GFS stays with the more northern solution. Not budging yet.

[GDR]

Nice hit on gfs I’ll take 11

[GDR]

But I’m not banking on the gfs

[East Dubzz]

Haha well props to the GFS for keeping the hopes alive. Kind of hard to buy it at this point, but it has stayed consistent.

[snowstorm83]

Nice run from Lincoln to Madison, if anything it's even more north I think

[East Dubzz]

The southern cutoff on that run stayed almost exactly the same. Crazy. Northern cutoff got even sharper. Stronger in the defo band, but not as widespread.

[East Dubzz]

Nice run from Lincoln to Madison, if anything it's even more north I think

I think the track was basically the same. Maybe a little slower. A little stronger in the main band as well. But the cutoffs got sharper on the northern end.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112400/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[East Dubzz]

Man, I would love for this to verify, but I’m not sure how much support the GFS has at this point unless some of the later models start to change.

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018112400&fh=54&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Pretty consistent overall to 18z

[East Dubzz]

Canadian appears to have gone slightly south and weaker as well, continuing the trend with basically every model except the GFS.

[Money]

Canadian appears to have gone slightly south and weaker as well, continuing the trend with basically every model except the GFS.

Not surprising considering rgem went way south/weaker

[East Dubzz]

Not surprising considering rgem went way south/weaker

Yeah, I was kind of expecting it on that run. All the models seem to have slowed the storm down if I am not mistaken.